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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #86,421
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:26am Jun 1, 2008 9:26am
Quoting ffbk
Agreed.. News point to a big drop too....

Which news bro? There's quite alot around...If it's the Bradford and Bingley news, the markets were aware of it over 3 weeks ago, not sure if it's priced in though.... BUT there may be quite a few others this next 2 weeks...remember the 100 day rule by G7 for all banks etc to declare losses? I think we are going to be at the 100 days soon, and there will a few surprises to be absorbed by the markets
  • #86,422
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:27am Jun 1, 2008 9:27am
wouldn't worry too much. GBP is still bullish but there is limited upside, i think ard 210.2 , 211 or 213,
will probably fall after the rates annoncement ( when all factored in ) or sooner possiblely even on monday
Quoting vinesh2
Geppy is going to 211 213 before any down that means my shorts are going to bleed red red blood
  • #86,423
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:41am Jun 1, 2008 9:41am
Quoting shakesfx
Which news bro? There's quite alot around...If it's the Bradford and Bingley news, the markets were aware of it over 3 weeks ago, not sure if it's priced in though.... BUT there may be quite a few others this next 2 weeks...remember the 100 day rule by G7 for all banks etc to declare losses? I think we are going to be at the 100 days soon, and there will a few surprises to be absorbed by the markets
Yes, but with it's chief exec stepping down and all that news happening in coming week there will be lot of bad news for GJ to keep moving up.
  • #86,424
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:43am Jun 1, 2008 9:43am
Quoting ffbk
Yes, but with it's chief exec stepping down and all that news happening in coming week there will be lot of bad news for GJ to keep moving up.
agreed. strange how resilient gbp/usd has been, given the weakness of the UK economy
  • #86,425
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:52am Jun 1, 2008 9:52am
Quoting ffbk
Yes, but with it's chief exec stepping down and all that news happening in coming week there will be lot of bad news for GJ to keep moving up.

Agreed. We will see how sensitve the markets are tonight...not long to go now...
  • #86,426
  • Jun 1, 2008 9:59am Jun 1, 2008 9:59am
They do call the B&B news on the front of the Business section a "shock announcement."

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/
  • #86,427
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:00am Jun 1, 2008 10:00am
i doubt we will have any fast motion going on until tuesday... but anything can happen.

i am also expecting this thing to range for 2-4 days before a drop,

Quoting shakesfx
Agreed. We will see how sensitve the markets are tonight...not long to go now...
  • #86,428
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:23am Jun 1, 2008 10:23am
que:

just spotted another bearich HD on weekly chart
  • #86,429
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:25am Jun 1, 2008 10:25am
weekly analysis for GJ
Attached Image
  • #86,430
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:36am Jun 1, 2008 10:36am
Quoting lilmoe
que:

just spotted another bearich HD on weekly chart

Care to share? Think I see it, but not sure how reliable these weekly divergences are...

Hope you had a good weekend lilmoe
  • #86,431
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:40am Jun 1, 2008 10:40am
IF confirmed, VERY reliable. trust me .

Quoting shakesfx
...Think I see it, but not sure how reliable these weekly divergences are...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #86,432
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:51am Jun 1, 2008 10:51am
but lilmoe
i have not hard with GBPUSD
but im worried USDYEN
if attention to monthly chart UJ, we see a bullish engulfing pattern previous month on the other hand,this candle have a small lower wick .this observation shows to us that buyers were aggressive .this is a bad news for bear camp.maybe maybe we will see USDYEN till 108.90.or we will see a large fall for cable ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #86,433
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:52am Jun 1, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Scrat
IF confirmed, VERY reliable. trust me .



OK, Is this something to consider?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp jpy weekly.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #86,434
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:53am Jun 1, 2008 10:53am
Quoting shakesfx
Care to share? Think I see it, but not sure how reliable these weekly divergences are...

Hope you had a good weekend lilmoe

hey there big guy

yup had lots of rest and fun in the weekend, just trying to figure out more clues on how things might be going in the upcoming days.

the bearish HD is not confirmed yet, it was more like a joke directed for que, he'd know what i mean

anyway, the last time something similar happend was back in may of 1999, and a very slow 3000pip drop happened after that. this might be as slow as the other one, or even slower, might take months to reach the bottom before the carry gets it's winding ass back. it would be virtually impossible to actually figure out the bottom. i'm not sure if 177 will be enough for this movement, but anything's possible.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly_gj_hd.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #86,435
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:56am Jun 1, 2008 10:56am
hey there bro how's your weekend?

yes, this looks like a bullish engulfing pattern for me, but that doesn't mean we can't have a drop to 98-100 area before it manifests. check out the past on that same chart with either bullish or bearish engulfing patterns.

Quoting hussin naiji
but lilmoe
i have not hard with GBPUSD
but im worried USDYEN
if attention to monthly chart UJ, we see a bullish engulfing pattern previous month on the other hand,this candle have a small lower wick .this observation shows to us that buyers were aggressive .this is a bad news for bear camp.maybe maybe we will see USDYEN till 108.90.or we will see a large fall for cable ?
  • #86,436
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:57am Jun 1, 2008 10:57am
1.9820*108.90=215.80
or
1.9700*107.90=212.50
  • #86,437
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:57am Jun 1, 2008 10:57am
Quoting shakesfx
OK, Is this something to consider?
that's what i was pointing out, but i think mine is clearer since i don't have the bold arrow, lol
  • #86,438
  • Jun 1, 2008 10:59am Jun 1, 2008 10:59am
nice analyze
Quoting shakesfx
Hope everyone had a great weekend!
I eventually managed to sort out my firewall, so can now post charts again.


Here's what I see:

First Chart DAILY - Notice the Z MACD, Z Stochs, QQE and Price Action. Also note the conjested area of the SMA's (white SMA is 156). Price jumps above before large drop.

Second Chart DAILY - Zoom in of the Bearish divergence on Z MACD, Triple top etc

Third Chart 4hr -Bearish divergence, indicators identical to the Feb. drop.

I am holding Short from 208.60 area witha SL above 210, and thought to myself (check previous post about me thinking the big boys would spike before a drop, which as you know happened in a 30 sec. period last thing on Friday):.. that if I was a large institution and IF we were to drop - I certainly wouldn't let everyone else on board.
I would know that Buy orders were triggered at 208.20, more were just above 209.20/45, and SL's were also building just above 209.00/45...so I would spike up triggering the buy orders and SL's before dropping Price back down.

Tonight and tomorrow will show the way...If this is the drop, I think we can expect to see all resistance and TL's smashed and a retest of 198 quicker than you can drop a hat, my guess is a 1000 pip move down by Friday close. Of course this pair will do what it wants, but I've realised that by trading the opposite to the general market view is keeping me on the right side of trades these days.

Looking forward to the next few days bros!
  • #86,439
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:01am Jun 1, 2008 11:01am
but lilmoe
im with you
  • #86,440
  • Jun 1, 2008 11:02am Jun 1, 2008 11:02am
Quoting hussin naiji
1.9820*108.90=215.80
or
1.9700*107.90=212.50

Or 1.9400*103.10=200.01
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