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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #3,161
  • Jan 22, 2007 11:48pm Jan 22, 2007 11:48pm
The last time we had a move like this in the Frankfurt session cable went up by about 200 pips. I hate it when people come on forums to cheerlead the market one way or the other so I'm not doing that but this is the sort of day when you can throw your analysis out of the window and either ride the momentum or stay out of the market and curse yourself that you're not in on the move. Sometimes Frankfurt breakouts turn out to be fakeouts that lead to reversals but sometimes they follow through strongly in London.
  • #3,162
  • Jan 22, 2007 11:53pm Jan 22, 2007 11:53pm
got a fast 33 pips just now, and now short for another 50 pips.... Anyway, thank you to everyone especially leugimp and monarch... I learnt a lot from all of you and to be honest, you guys are the best system/indicator than any other system existed...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #3,163
  • Jan 22, 2007 11:53pm Jan 22, 2007 11:53pm
Quoting Leugimp
believe it or not, that move was actually better for reversal conditions to materialize. It was a quick move at a time where stop hunting "seems" like the trend. Also this move shifted the lower rsi line of the range significantly to the downside giving us more time to reach our mark. if this ends up being a pin bar on 150 tick and the turn is confirmed, I may infact take this short trade.
This to me was the High I was looking for, and the price jumping up in the Frankfurt hour was 1 in 10 times it happens this way, usualy the next hour is the drop.

Me projection is back down to 1.9790 for the next hour or thereafter.
  • #3,164
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:00am Jan 23, 2007 12:00am
Quoting notouch
The last time we had a move like this in the Frankfurt session cable went up by about 200 pips. I hate it when people come on forums to cheerlead the market one way or the other so I'm not doing that but this is the sort of day when you can throw your analysis out of the window and either ride the momentum or stay out of the market and curse yourself that you're not in on the move. Sometimes Frankfurt breakouts turn out to be fakeouts that lead to reversals but sometimes they follow through strongly in London.
I will never curse myself for staying out, and I will never throw my analysis out the window, but i cannot deny the strength of this move. At the same time, and I may be shunned for this one, I feel like the probability of a turn is high. Although I may be wrong, that doen't mean money must be lost. I will wait for my signial if it comes and if my "future" analysis also lines up with that perspective I will take the trade, just a habit. However, that maybee in 2 seconds, that may be in 3 hours at a price much higher, that is why I wait for that confirmation.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,165
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:02am Jan 23, 2007 12:02am
Still, and this is speaking without confirmation, I see the next likely move down to 9758.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,166
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:04am Jan 23, 2007 12:04am
i'm long from 1.98 looking for 1.9850
  • #3,167
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:06am Jan 23, 2007 12:06am
Here's a reminder what happened on 19 December...

Check out the Cable Update thread for who was right and who was wrong... :
Attached Image
  • #3,168
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:09am Jan 23, 2007 12:09am
Quoting notouch
Here's a reminder what happened on 19 December...

Check out the Cable Update thread for who was right and who was wrong... :
sounds like notouch is buying everybody lunch today... J/K
  • #3,169
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:13am Jan 23, 2007 12:13am
Quoting notouch
The last time we had a move like this in the Frankfurt session cable went up by about 200 pips. I hate it when people come on forums to cheerlead the market one way or the other so I'm not doing that but this is the sort of day when you can throw your analysis out of the window and either ride the momentum or stay out of the market and curse yourself that you're not in on the move. Sometimes Frankfurt breakouts turn out to be fakeouts that lead to reversals but sometimes they follow through strongly in London.
Actually on the analysis side, I had this price keyed in, it may have happened a little sooner than I thought, but go back and read just today where I said it would go up to 1.9819-25 area.

Just because the breakout happened in the Frankfurt hour, does not make this move different than ones we have experienced in the past, actually, this is the one reason I trade during the Frankfurt Hour, for moves such as this.

Analysis are as only good as the one who trades them, You may see it one way, and others may see it another.

We must trade the indication our own analysis tell us, and right now I am exactly where I thought we would be.

And we will go down and test some of the highs of yesterday, it may be after we range high for sometime here.
  • #3,170
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:16am Jan 23, 2007 12:16am
was there some news released just before ? i didn't think there was by checking on the calendar no this site, but all of a sudden GBP spikes up 30 pips ! ?
  • #3,171
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:18am Jan 23, 2007 12:18am
Quoting anthonyrae
was there some news released just before ? i didn't think there was by checking on the calendar no this site, but all of a sudden GBP spikes up 30 pips ! ?
No you had a major break and some stops probably got run over
  • #3,172
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:18am Jan 23, 2007 12:18am
yesterdays longs
closed the position @ 1.9827
banked 82 pips
Reversed the position - short @ 1.9827, tight stops
  • #3,173
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:19am Jan 23, 2007 12:19am
There was no news. It's fairly common for breakouts to occur at this time of day for no apparent reason. Someone somewhere is a strong buyer and stops are being hit.

Think of all those stops lined up above 1.985...
  • #3,174
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:26am Jan 23, 2007 12:26am
Quoting notouch
Here's a reminder what happened on 19 December...

Check out the Cable Update thread for who was right and who was wrong... :
You might be right, there is possibility that it won't be reversing back to the 1.97 area, but considering the next big resistance is 15 years high, I have to disagree with that...It's gonna take more than what we have today to break that level... It's already hard enough to break the 1.9800 level and with no major news today I don't think it will have enough momentum to skyrocket like what happened before..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #3,175
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:28am Jan 23, 2007 12:28am
Quoting notouch
There was no news. It's fairly common for breakouts to occur at this time of day for no apparent reason. Someone somewhere is a strong buyer and stops are being hit.

Think of all those stops lined up above 1.985...
Rally due to the streght of the GBP Crosses, and than further fuelled by short covering
  • #3,176
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:36am Jan 23, 2007 12:36am
150 tick turn confirmed, will short on no levg looking to hit pt1 9660 bid,initial pt2 is 9675. Extreme bubble reading not reached, thats why no levg, if goes against me will add on short at extreme reading turn. 1600 tick bubble also reaching extreme reading, but has yet to confirm. For these reasons, no levg for now
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,177
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:36am Jan 23, 2007 12:36am
Quoting monarch
Actually on the analysis side, I had this price keyed in, it may have happened a little sooner than I thought, but go back and read just today where I said it would go up to 1.9819-25 area.

Just because the breakout happened in the Frankfurt hour, does not make this move different than ones we have experienced in the past, actually, this is the one reason I trade during the Frankfurt Hour, for moves such as this.

Analysis are as only good as the one who trades them, You may see it one way, and others may see it another.

We must trade the indication our own analysis tell us, and right now I am exactly where I thought we would be.

And we will go down and test some of the highs of yesterday, it may be after we range high for sometime here.
Yep, Monarch, you stated 18-22, I had 25 penciled in. Now Im expecting that to be the top for the week, and downhill from now on. (just my opinion)
Mono
  • #3,178
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:37am Jan 23, 2007 12:37am
Quoting Leugimp
150 tick turn confirmed, will short on no levg looking to hit pt1 9660 bid,initial pt2 is 9675. Extreme bubble reading not reached, thats why no levg, if goes against me will add on short at extreme reading turn. 1600 tick bubble also reaching extreme reading, but has yet to confirm. For these reasons, no levg for now
My mistake pt1, 9760 bid
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,179
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:53am Jan 23, 2007 12:53am
Quoting obeewon
i posted this comment several pages back last week. this morning 1/22 (430-5am est) i also posted that we were on the verge of an up trend but that the 1hr chart divergence to the downside was still in play. as i look at the chart now the dirvergence has worked its self off and is may no longer be in play. the uptrend on the 1hr is starting to unfold and we may see a move upward to at least 9800 and maybe more 9840 i think during the Euro-US session if not then then in comming days of this week. i think there will be a small pullback to 9730 handle and maybe 9718 before a move upwards. on the macd there is alot of room to the upside so this may be the prervailing trend for the comming weeks...... my 2 pips

posted this earlier; lets see if it gets if to 9840
  • #3,180
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:54am Jan 23, 2007 12:54am
Quoting Leugimp
150 tick turn confirmed, will short on no levg looking to hit pt1 9660 bid,initial pt2 is 9675. Extreme bubble reading not reached, thats why no levg, if goes against me will add on short at extreme reading turn. 1600 tick bubble also reaching extreme reading, but has yet to confirm. For these reasons, no levg for now
Hi Leugimp,

May I ask you what indicators you use to analyze this possible GBP/USD reversal point? Thanks in advance!
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