Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Should make for an interesting overnight session

The "I" word

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time in 13 years, people who trade currencies say confidence in the markets to determine exchange rates is dwindling.

The crisis that may bring the so-called Group of Seven nations to coordinated intervention is the result of a sinking U.S. economy, the weakest dollar since 1971 and the biggest currency fluctuations this decade.

``The risks of coordinated intervention are going to increase in the second quarter for sure as the dollar weakens further,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon. The firm is the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank.


A nice reading to start the week LOL...

Good morning and good luck

i told u, several tps were hit overnight in carries, just 110 pips in gj was not, any idea, should i hold for another 200-300?...:

Euro can put a montly pin-bar, as I see it. Must close at or below 5200, 200 pips and 7 days to go. This could set a broad dollar correction.

Didn't realize it's holiday today. Well, it's not here in Brazil...

Cya round

only for $2 a share

Huge news

"Fed: Took Action in Bear Stearns Deal to 'Bolster Market Liquidity.' Fed to Finance JPMorgan Deal. To Control $30B of Bear Stearns Assets."

I need a daddy like this

usd/chf, tasty!!

, if it is truly a genuine "bull $ run", I see a good 600-1000 pip run, maybe more. It all depends how Wall Street shrugs off data coming out. This may also lessen the pressure on the Euro (for the time being)and we might see a good 500-1000 pip correction which Cesar also mentioned.

Also, Can't say anything about Geppy and EJ but if the bulls are back, AJ should target 105-110.

I'm staying away from Geppy and EJ for the following reasons, GU is bearish, EU daily turned bearish and if there is a correction, it is going down, so if UJ goes up and GU / Eu go down, not a good combination. Thoughts?

Agreed on AJ, I don't know what this is, but I'll take it. Agreed on EJ and GJ Im treating them like stepchildren and ignoring them. AJ is headed to 92 today where it goes from there who knows, or cares. I'm booking all profits and taking names later.

"If you think Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is drawing a line in the sand with inflation and is unlikely to cut interest rates much more, then the dollar’s misery is probably over. If not, then you don’t know what misery is."
-CNBC
:

"Dr. Death to run for Congress, newswires have it."

... to help giving the market liquidity injection?

Absolute codswallop - freezing rates right here is being tough on inflation ?

Printing billions to underwrite the banks and brokers is dealing with inflation ?

I look at my screen and I can't believe the dollar isn't collapsing - should be 2.20 ish right now.. Anyone would think the wolf had gone from the door and it was smiles all round and houses would now sell and the DOW is off to 15000 and oil prices etc will not go up again
The reality is that they just sold the telly and the settee to pay the loan sharks off for another week and now they think its ok to go to the pub and get drunk with the bit left over

jeez this is not over yet.. quoting winston - ' it isn't even the end of the beginning'

But, but, the Dow, just look at the Dow, all those pretty green numbers

Let's see how the rest of the world views this "all is well" signal.

No, I think it means inflation could be the line in the sand here. Like not cutting rates more to avoid negative inflation-discounted interest rates.

Yes I bought Goldman at 142 and a bunch of others too - so I am happy with the bounce - it's probably the FED and their pals rigging the market to inject confidence 'all means at our disposal'

All the people in the real world are running round saying 'worst this that and the other since the 1930's slump' and the DOW is romping up like someone said kennedy wasnt shot and all the rest of it was just a dream including $110 oil and Iraq is joining NAFTA and Iran is asking the US to come in and supervise democratic elections after taking away the nukes - what are they on ?

Perhaps it isnt all happening and it's still 2am monday and I am still dreaming

A Dollar Rebound? Assume a Best-Case Scenario

CURRENCIES, DOLLAR'S FUTURE, FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY, INFLATION
By Albert Bozzo

Senior Features Editor
CNBC.com
| 24 Mar 2008 | 02:30 PM ET


If you think Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is drawing a line in the sand with inflation and is therefore unlikely to cut interest rates much more, then the US dollar’s misery is probably over. If not, then you don’t know what misery is.

Bernanke’s emphasis on inflation in the FOMC’s March monetary policy statement last week and policymakers’ decision to cut the federal funds rate three-quarters of a point rather than a full point was seen as directly supportive of the dollar in some quarters.

There’s little if any doubt in the mind of long-time Fed watcher David Jones, president of DMJ Advisors.

“For all intents and purposes, the Fed is finished cutting rates," says Jones, who says the central bank won’t go below 2.00 percent.


Jones says the “perfect way [to support the dollar] is to let the market think you're going to cut a full point and cut 75 basis points.” That's exactly what the central bank did when it only reduced the federal funds rate to 2.25 percent, rather than the 2.00 percent the market expected, he pointed out.
So with the Fed's help, the dollar is out of the gutter? Not everyone thinks so.

Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at Dailyfx.com, says the dollar decline, which was beginning to appear un-orderly to some, is in something of a pause mode.

Sure, he says, it could rebound against the euro to the 1.50 level, after sinking as low as 1.59 around the time of the Fed meeting.

But Schlossberg and his company remain “serious dollar bears” long term because the Fed will take rates to 1.00 percent before it is done with its easing. “It is a slow-motion car wreck,” he adds, explaining that the housing problem will take awhile to unwind and correct.

A Long Way Down
Interest rate differentials – and a healthy share of speculation – have taken the US currency down to levels few imagined last fall, when the Fed started easing policy as the credit crunch emerged.


Since then the dollar has touched parity with the Canadian currency for the first time in four decades, reached two-to-one versus the British Pound for the first time in years, fallen through the psychologically important 100-yen level against the Japanese currency and touched record low after record low against the Euro, against which it has lost half its value in the past six years.
That deprecation – some might argue devaluation – has had greater ramifications than wounded national pride, credibility reservations about Bernanke and the Fed, or the dollar’s near century-old role as the world’s reserve currency.

It has helped fuel a boom in commodities prices, from crude oil to gold to copper to wheat, as well as provoke worries about stagflation for the first time in two decades ... negatives far outweighing any boom in US exports.
William Silber, an author and professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, is among those who think concern about the dollar is over-done and short-sighted.

"I think the dollar is here because we have low interest rates and fears of a recession," says Silber, whose latest book is "When Washington Shut Down Wall Street". "Right now, the dollar is of secondary concern to the Fed."


Which Way To Go?
Jones says it is possible for the currency to appreciate 15 percent to 20 percent in the next year or so as “people look at the dollar in a more positive way.”

Jones expects a scenario where “interest rate fundamentals turn.” Growth will slow drastically in Europe and the European Central Bank will cut rates as the United States emerges from its recession and starts raising rates.

But Maria Fiorini Ramirez, president of the economic consulting firm MFR, doesn’t subscribe to that.

She expects the dollar to be a “little lower’ against the euro in a year’s time, adding that it has “more of a chance appreciating against the yen.”
She says the Fed is “stuck between a rock and a hard place” on interest rates and inflation and, by association, the dollar.

In recent decades, the dollar’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. The last dollar slump came in 1994-1995. In early 1995, the US currency fell below 80 yen amid cries about the hazards of the twin deficits and a sea of dollars. Shortly thereafter, the dollar began a robust rebound for years, setting a record high against the newly arrived euro in 2000 and 2001.


What’s different today? In a word, the Internet, says Schlossberg. The emergence the Internet in the US brought enormous productivity gains and capital flows in the 1990s and up to the tech bust. And that attracted investment which, in turn, pumped up the dollar.

Today, the Internet is old hat. And today, there's no big new thing.
Ramirez and others add that the dollar is undergoing a fundamental reevaluation.

“I think the desire by big holders to diversify out of dollars is still there,” says Ramirez, citing a force that began in 2001. “Commodity exporting countries that have a lot of reserves are shifting those assets.”

Ramirez and Schlossberg cite oil producing Persian Gulf states as prime examples. China, Japan and Korea are also factors in this form of capital flow.
As the theory goes, the U.S. is in the early stages of losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, a process that some say started in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks.

Silber and others are skeptical, but admit that unlike the 1990s and the 1970s – when the Fed let inflation get out of control and the dollar suffered greatly – there is an alternative in the marketplace now in the form of the euro.

But even that doesn’t preclude a dollar rebound, never mind rally -- not that Silber is predicting one.

"The demise of the dollar as the international currency doesn't happen overnight," says Silber. (No, it started several years ago)

2008 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23779490/site/14081545/page/2/

I just want my pips. Thanks

For now people, if Wall Street wants to rally, we rally with them, if someone wants to pump up the $, then let's go long on the $.

I'm just following my daily charts and which ever direction they take me, even though nothing seems to be fundamentally sane.

This bail out of investment banks, let call it for what it is "A bail out with tax payers money". Everyone knows this but the Fed will not come out and say it. If they do, they kill the $. Since they didn't imply it with those words, everyone assumes that the worst is over and the $ as found new found strength. Bull Shit!

Totally agree w/you@Ash. I just do what the charts say. But you have to remember the DJ has really little to do with the US Economy anymore, most companies are broadly profiting from overseas markets.

Ding Ding round 1

ok so the feds, BoE ECB and so on can't fix the problem.

Instead you make like you fixed it - freeze rate "were confident the issue is over"

then you have some jerk in the UK spread rumours of UK bank issues (HBOS, Barclays etc) GPB collapses and down goes GU

world on holiday so little guys think ok to short. OOPS

markets open tuesday and smart moneys buy's lots and lots and lots as the reality returns to the market. fundimentally speaking anyway.

technically speaking this is all just a weekly chart retracement so the trends can resume there calmer (the dollar is dead) pace to the northern hemisphere.

Just My View