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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,581
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:05am Feb 12, 2008 7:05am
Thank's Ryan, Phil, for the critics yesterday. I took 'em positively and made me did some hardwork today. Thank's a bunch
  • #11,582
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:54am Feb 12, 2008 7:54am
I didn't take the TC on the USDCAD, because of the previous noise (last few days of trading all sorts of indecision) and then I though we might get a move back to the 89 before coming down.

I missed a good TC trade, good work hijack!

I did take a TC trade on the USDCHF this morning. Two straight bars came close to the 200 MA and moved away. The last giving a short TC bar signal on the MACD. I set my stop loss above the 200 MA and my target profit to the previous low.

So short USDCHF @ 1.0991
Stop Loss 1.1045
1st Target Profit 1.0964
  • #11,583
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:02am Feb 12, 2008 8:02am
Quoting unlv_tj
I didn't take the TC on the USDCAD, because of the previous noise (last few days of trading all sorts of indecision) and then I though we might get a move back to the 89 before coming down.

I missed a good TC trade, good work hijack!

I did take a TC trade on the USDCHF this morning. Two straight bars came close to the 200 MA and moved away. The last giving a short TC bar signal on the MACD. I set my stop loss above the 200 MA and my target profit to the previous low.

So short USDCHF @ 1.0991
Stop Loss 1.1045
1st Target Profit 1.0964
Hi,
i am just learning, but I didn't see any TC signal today on USCHF.
What I see, is that the price is stuck between 89 and 200.
I will wait for a brake out and a retracement..
Please correct me if I am wrong...
  • #11,584
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:22am Feb 12, 2008 8:22am
short usdcad ,u see my sl and tp on chart
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  • #11,585
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:25am Feb 12, 2008 8:25am
Quoting Borism
Hi,
i am just learning, but I didn't see any TC signal today on USCHF.
What I see, is that the price is stuck between 89 and 200.
I will wait for a brake out and a retracement..
Please correct me if I am wrong...
You are right. There was never a TC on the usd/chf.
Price finds resistance on the 200sma and support on the buttom trendline.
If price breaks the bottom trendline there could be a move to the 89sma.
  • #11,586
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:46am Feb 12, 2008 8:46am
Quoting bshadroo
short usdcad ,u see my sl and tp on chart
Ok, I joined also, just realized the signal down, lets go short
  • #11,587
  • Edited 9:08am Feb 12, 2008 8:49am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting aguskrw1
Ok, I joined also, just realized the signal down, lets go short
yes ,but i dont know why but im not like that very much, and decide to put my sl above a m15 trendline and if it breaks that down m15 TL i'll close it .
sorry all for putting this m15 chart here ,just wanna show my sl to aguskrw

edit:close -15pips
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  • #11,588
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 12, 2008 9:10am | Edited 9:11am
[quote=bshadroo;1847386].....and decide to put my sl above a m15 trendline and if it breaks that down m15 TL i'll close it ....[quote]

It doesn't matter, I made my own trade, but inspired after read your post, my SL is 200MA line.
Its going up now....still time..., we're in the same boat, but different captain.
Just wanna sell Uncle Sam, to buy Montreal. :
  • #11,589
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:10am Feb 12, 2008 9:10am
Good call, there was no TC on the USDCHF, I got too excited with the bounce off of the 200 MA and expected a move towards the 89 MA.

Bad trade on my part, but I will hold for a scalp opportunity.
  • #11,590
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:26am Feb 12, 2008 9:26am
[quote=aguskrw1;1847428][quote=bshadroo;1847386].....and decide to put my sl above a m15 trendline and if it breaks that down m15 TL i'll close it ....
Quote

It doesn't matter, I made my own trade, but inspired after read your post, my SL is 200MA line.
Its going up now....still time..., we're in the same boat, but different captain.
Just wanna sell Uncle Sam, to buy Montreal. :
seems ur are braver that me ,but u have a 100pip stoploss.where is your TP? is your R:R is ok?
  • #11,591
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:39am Feb 12, 2008 9:39am
Quoting bshadroo
...seems ur are braver that me ,but u have a 100pip stoploss.where is your TP? is your R:R is ok?
I use 4hr method, and 200MA as my SL, coz... now its going up for a while, then I hope.... killing me softly....to my firstTP 1,9901, SL About -89 only, trailed manually coz I don't use EA, someone says......Human is better than Lossing EA.
Thanks for ur respond, its like a chatting to me
  • #11,592
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:37am Feb 12, 2008 10:37am
USDCAD

I'm still trying to figure this one out. What do you guys think?

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c3...cad2-12-08.gif
  • #11,593
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:48am Feb 12, 2008 10:48am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 12 Feb2008.zip   798 KB | 1,069 downloads
  • #11,594
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:01am Feb 12, 2008 11:01am
I think we are still stuck in a ranging market between .99 and 1.01 or so. I would be very cautious with any TC signals because price should have a hard time breaking 0.99-0.9940 levels.

Quoting wazzuvius
USDCAD

I'm still trying to figure this one out. What do you guys think?
  • #11,595
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:20am Feb 12, 2008 11:20am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Thanks for the info Phillip.

I like what you say on the G/U about prefering a pullback to be over at least 2 candles when the price breaks through the 21 and returns back to it to form a TC. I've also found a 1 bar pullback to be less reliable in the backtesting.
  • #11,596
  • Edited 11:36am Feb 12, 2008 11:22am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
hi dear phillip .i heard ur comments about my trade on usdcad.thx for that .
yes.actually i wait for a break out the lower TL for entry and thats why i didnt enter in the privious candle(12:00). then i swithced to m5 and followed the pull back to the broken level whith the m5 chart and u can see my exact entry point after breaking down that little TL and a nice pullback from the broken point( wich i showed by the circle) in the picture below and told my self if price goes above the broken level it can go up all the way and decided to put my SL above that.
(sorry i had to post a m5 chart again,i know i shouldnt do that)
as u see ,every thing looks good ,but ... didnt worked i think all of us should know why our trades doesnt work sometimes,i know its not because of little SL,my friend has take the same position and his 1014 sl hitted right now ,so why didnt worked? please ur idea
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  • #11,597
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:54am Feb 12, 2008 11:54am
Quoting bshadroo
hi dear phillip .i heard ur comments about my trade on usdcad.thx for that .
yes.actually i wait for a break out the lower TL for entry and thats why i didnt enter in the privious candle(12:00). then i swithced to m5 and followed the pull back to the broken level whith the m5 chart and u can see my exact entry point after breaking down that little TL and a nice pullback from the broken point( wich i showed by the circle) in the picture below and told my self if price goes above the broken level it can go up all the way and decided to put my SL above that.
(sorry i had to post a m5 chart again,i know i shouldnt do that)
as u see ,every thing looks good ,but ... didnt worked i think all of us should know why our trades doesnt work sometimes,i know its not because of little SL,my friend has take the same position and his 1014 sl hitted right now ,so why didnt worked? please ur idea
I had a look at your trade. The 1H and 30min pullback was not perfect but I think the decision was not bad at all. I never go down to 5min to look at pullback. Iwill look at 30min if 1H does not show nice but that is it. 30Min pullback does not look to bad except for a little tail on the move away candle from the breakout level. I have seen worse setups that worked out. If stoploss was just inside the TL then your decision was not bad at all as you had a plan and monitored it and executed it.

The market is doing what it wants and we must be prepared to adjust accordingly. The anticipated rules does not allways work out. But when it fails you can very quickly see when it does fail and cut your losses early.
Phillip
  • #11,598
  • Feb 12, 2008 12:04pm Feb 12, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I had a look at your trade. The 1H and 30min pullback was not perfect but I think the decision was not bad at all. I never go down to 5min to look at pullback. Iwill look at 30min if 1H does not show nice but that is it. 30Min pullback does not look to bad except for a little tail on the move away candle from the breakout level. I have seen worse setups that worked out. If stoploss was just inside the TL then your decision was not bad at all as you had a plan and monitored it and executed it.

The market is doing what it wants and we must be prepared to adjust accordingly. The anticipated rules does not allways work out. But when it fails you can very quickly see when it does fail and cut your losses early.
Phillip
thx for the answer,i was clicking on F5 to see ur answer as soon as it possible and thx for ur early answer.i bold the 2point wich i get from ur post.
  • #11,599
  • Feb 12, 2008 12:33pm Feb 12, 2008 12:33pm
I recall some weeks ago that Philip mentioned a Daily version of his system. If that's so, could someone kindly point me to the post where this is revealed?

This thread is huge, so please don't tell me to read the entire thing just to find one item...

Tx

DGC
  • #11,600
  • Feb 12, 2008 1:08pm Feb 12, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting bshadroo
thx for the answer,i was clicking on F5 to see ur answer as soon as it possible and thx for ur early answer.i bold the 2point wich i get from ur post.
bshadroo,

I use fibs of the last swing to objectively define a pullback & entry - it is much easier and a lot less discretion and gives 100% confidence in my entries.

Notice on the first chart price bounced from the fib and closed under the swing short which is the 38% fib.

Now notice on your entry point on the second chart how price again bounced from the fib but closed above the 38% fib - my plan rule say I would only take the entry if bar bounced from fib and closed below the 38% fib. Then notice how price close above the 62% fib - that tells me the last downward swing is over & I would look to exit at the next down swing if short. You can fib the last swing whenever you feel uncertain about an entry - 8 out of 10 times it will keep you out of a bad trade.

Mind you I would not even look at the CAD due it being unclear in terms of direction. But if it fits your plan then it is fine. But if you are trading breakouts you must be aware of the higher timeframe cycles or swings and the ranging S/R levels - because right now the 4H CAD in stucked in a corrective cycle of a previous daily down swing. Now the 4H price has attempted 4 times to breakout the daily corrective cycle and continue the daily down swing - and failed. Again with ranging market it is better to trade at the boundaries. - in this case since the previous daily swing is down taking the shorts at the upper range is bit higher proability.

Now obviously if you want high proability trades then you wait for the daily to get going and trending then take 4 TC trending signals in direction of higher timeframe trend. Much like what happened last year where weekly, daily, 4H trends were all in sync and making pips were easy. Are we going to get those conditions again? Proably but one must adapt to current conditions. I guess I am trying to describe how I see price cycles but it cannot be described as each trader needs to experience it. I mean it is a great feeling when I can clearly see how the 1H swings are moving in relations to the 4H - and 4H movement in relation to daily and daily movement to weekly - with this clear picture it is easy to pick out the good trades.
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