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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,361
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:42am Feb 6, 2008 10:42am
Quoting juang
Thanks my brother
You're welcome! --Tony
  • #11,362
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:45am Feb 6, 2008 10:45am
Quoting bshadroo
hi
whould u (phillip or other traders) please answer my 2 questions?
u enter the trade right after the h4 candle close. 25 to 30 pip take profit in 50% and then set the rest to BE and and stay in as long as posibble.
first Q:do u enter again in a better price if price hits ur second half BE stoploss?(because sometimes i miss one trade and price comes up(for long) 30 pips and the comes down again to initial place and i say myself :if philip has take this position his second half BE stoploss would hitted now and its not good to enter )

It depends on the rhythm. If the rhythm shows strong move and there is a retracement you can enter on that. I only trade this way(taking 50% after 20-30pips) because I cannot watch my trades live. I will only enter on retracement if the move is very much certain to go in a certain direction.

second Q:how long do u stay in a trade if price doesnt go ur desired direction?i mean do u stay long if ur first TP doesnt hit after 4hours and the next macd bar become red without any important change in the rhytm?
sorry i post it again , i think it lost in new pages. if phillip or any one trade with this style asnwers can help me alot
I have for instance closed my EurUsd remainder position just now for +172 at 1.4641 on 50%. First 50% closed for +25. The candles does not indicate a definite continiuation of the downmove so I closed out. Will look for a TC with nice candle emotion.
  • #11,363
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:54am Feb 6, 2008 10:54am
thax alot for answer phillip
  • #11,364
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:50am Feb 6, 2008 11:50am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I have for instance closed my EurUsd remainder position just now for +172 at 1.4641 on 50%. First 50% closed for +25. The candles does not indicate a definite continiuation of the downmove so I closed out. Will look for a TC with nice candle emotion.
Phillip, Nice to see you pulling some good pips out of the market and letting them run
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,365
  • Feb 6, 2008 12:39pm Feb 6, 2008 12:39pm
Just a heads up to those looking at the eur and gbp. (actually most pairs could be impacted). BOE at 7AM EST and ECB to follow at 745AM EST (Thursday AM). Maybe a trade around 00 gmt or maybe even the european open, but it may flatten out b/f the news... and likely to be some "stop hunting" at news time...

Quoting Ryanmcd
Phillip, Nice to see you pulling some good pips out of the market and letting them run
  • #11,366
  • Feb 6, 2008 12:54pm Feb 6, 2008 12:54pm
i usually dont trade gu ,but seems its good to enter even an early with H1 after h1 trend breaks down.if it was befor 7gmt i whould enter for sure ,but now... i dont know
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,367
  • Feb 6, 2008 2:32pm Feb 6, 2008 2:32pm
Gone short on USD JPY with TC signal (demo trade).
I like that 89 and 21MA have been tested as support on 4th and 5th Feb and now tested as resistance on both 12:00 and 16:00 candle.
Bit of a late entry at 106.45
SL at 106.83
1st TP at 25 pips
Looking for second TP around 105.00 (day chart shows bounce of 21MA with a pin bar that has been broken to the downside, so good potential there).

Up 8 pips at moment...will see how it goes.

Feel like I'm finally getting a grasp on a high prob. setup vs give-it-a-miss setup. Feedback would be great.
Attached Image
  • #11,368
  • Feb 6, 2008 2:43pm Feb 6, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Most of the time I hold the full position for +40-60, most moves are good for this much, sometimes I will clost 1/2 at 50 and put my stop @ cost. I also do like to put stop @ cost when +25 if I can, I like to watch the BB to see where to get out most of the time, or MA's. The hardest part for me now is knowing when to get out of the trade and I have had this problem for years but remember this "You will not go broke making money"
I like this approach - been trying much the same thing. My success rate still not up there in the 80% range yet and I find that my losses destroy my profits if I take smaller 25 pip initial profits on 1/2 my lots. (U/J trade I posted above I went on smaller 25 pip TP due to the range price is currently in).
Lots of backtesting and demo trading to go, but it will all pay off.
  • #11,369
  • Feb 6, 2008 3:04pm Feb 6, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi
whould u (phillip or other traders) please answer my 2 questions?
u enter the trade right after the h4 candle close. 25 to 30 pip take profit in 50% and then set the rest to BE and and stay in as long as posibble.
first Q:do u enter again in a better price if price hits ur second half BE stoploss?(because sometimes i miss one trade and price comes up(for long) 30 pips and the comes down again to initial place and i say myself :if philip has take this position his second half BE stoploss would hitted now and its not good to enter )
second Q:how long do u stay in a trade if price doesnt go ur desired direction?i mean do u stay long if ur first TP doesnt hit after 4hours and the next macd bar become red without any important change in the rhytm?
sorry i post it again , i think it lost in new pages. if phillip or any one trade with this style asnwers can help me alot
Hi,
Q1. if you believe in the move, the way to do it is to use the profit from the 50% of the position to lower the stop loss so that the whole deal breaks even if the stop loss is hit. this way you give your position more space to breathe. just like Philip has taught us.

normally when price retraces all the way after a nice take off, you know, that either a timing is not right or the trade has gone bad. don't chase the market, wait for a clear picture instead. when i miss the beginning of a move i punish myself by not getting involved at all and try to learn from my mistakes.

Q2. if macd turns and closes against you and you are still not in profit, you probably have entered too early. if you have any doubts about the trade get out of it.

it's important to do the homework before the trade carefully. e/u today is a good example. first 200sma was in the way of a CT trade. then the TC signal was given right @ major support and you NEVER take a trade @ support or resistance (the safest way is to wait for a breakout, a pullback and enter on a move away when candles confirm the direction). a second CT signal came off strong support where ~30pips was possible to be made up to the 200sma. i missed the start of the move, therefore i stayed out. but if i had "entered again" after the retrace i'd be in trouble now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,370
  • Feb 6, 2008 3:32pm Feb 6, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting BenStevo
I like this approach - been trying much the same thing. My success rate still not up there in the 80% range yet and I find that my losses destroy my profits if I take smaller 25 pip initial profits on 1/2 my lots. (U/J trade I posted above I went on smaller 25 pip TP due to the range price is currently in).
Lots of backtesting and demo trading to go, but it will all pay off.

very nice positioning on the u/j. it should speed up during the asian session. i bet Philip is sitting in this as well.

try to take less setups and it will improve your success rate. having patience to wait for the best setups pays off.
  • #11,371
  • Feb 6, 2008 3:40pm Feb 6, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting Pipsi cola
very nice positioning on the u/j. it should speed up during the asian session. i bet Philip is sitting in this as well.

try to take less setups and it will improve your success rate. having patience to wait for the best setups pays off.
Thanks! I think a lot of it is just time as well. Just working out what is a good setup and what isn't has taken some time, but I am definitely seeing improvement (like looking back at old trades, shaking my head and wondering why I even looked at them!). For other people still grappling with the whole thing, I have really found it useful marking all Phillips trades on my charts - I can scroll thru them and get a feel for what works and what doesn't. It makes a big difference having all the trades visually infront of me.
  • #11,372
  • Feb 6, 2008 4:06pm Feb 6, 2008 4:06pm
Long CHF

Entry 1.0964
SL : 1.0933
PT1 : 1.0986 (previous 1H high bars)

Plan -

1. When PT1 is hit move SL to 1.0949
2. When price starts going - breaking 1.1004 Trail SL with previous 1H low

- Anticipating 4H TC
- 1H showing strong basing pattern (SHS)
- Price test fib level 4 times and bounced
- Entered trade at bounce point
- No MACD confirmation all price action entry

This is my first trade of the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #11,373
  • Feb 6, 2008 4:27pm Feb 6, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting maxster
Long CHF

Entry 1.0964
SL : 1.0933
PT1 : 1.0986 (previous 1H high bars)

Plan -

1. When PT1 is hit move SL to 1.0949
2. When price starts going - breaking 1.1004 Trail SL with previous 1H low

- Anticipating 4H TC
- 1H showing strong basing pattern (SHS)
- Price test fib level 4 times and bounced
- Entered trade at bounce point
- No MACD confirmation all price action entry

This is my first trade of the week.


Anticipating 4H TC is why you have a good chance of losing on this trade. Nothing says get long, DO NOT front run trades unless you like losing money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,374
  • Edited 6:36pm Feb 6, 2008 6:25pm | Edited 6:36pm
I second the motion. I anticipated the 8:00 candle at 3AM this morning. it was an engulfing candle for sure. And looked damn bullish (attached picture).... only lacked 5 pips from turning the MACD green for a TC and bounced beautifully off the 8ema. Turned out to be a spinner and cost me 30 pips....

PS I just switched my demo account to Interbank and it has the candles that end at 3AM, 7AM, 10AM EST. Which I prefer due to the timing of the euro open and the equity open in the US (9:30A)....

Quoting Ryanmcd
Anticipating 4H TC is why you have a good chance of losing on this trade. Nothing says get long, DO NOT front run trades unless you like losing money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissie 4hr 6feb.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #11,375
  • Feb 6, 2008 6:40pm Feb 6, 2008 6:40pm
Not sure why I am having a problem looking at this chart, most of the time I would say if this closes red go short, but some reason I am not feeling it. Any ideas?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.jpg Size: 185 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,376
  • Feb 6, 2008 6:41pm Feb 6, 2008 6:41pm
Thoughts on the USD CAD (long)....

TC forming broke 200sma on 4Feb, went back to the below the 200 sma. Found support on the 21, retook the 200, went back to the 200 and now on the ascent.

21 pips risk down to the 200 and 31 pips until the 89...

PS What I don't like is the 00gmt bar on the hourly (engulfing bear candle)....
Attached Image
  • #11,377
  • Edited 6:51pm Feb 6, 2008 6:49pm | Edited 6:51pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Not sure why I am having a problem looking at this chart, most of the time I would say if this closes red go short, but some reason I am not feeling it. Any ideas?
Only thing I don't like is the trendline I've got, which runs from 9 November. Tested 6 times.

PS. 4hr chart shown. Gone to 'Save as Picture' (MT4), but dates etc not displaying
Attached Image
  • #11,378
  • Edited 7:11pm Feb 6, 2008 6:57pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Not sure why I am having a problem looking at this chart, most of the time I would say if this closes red go short, but some reason I am not feeling it. Any ideas?
Not sure it helps, but my bar, which ends in a little over an hour is still in the green. On my chart the spinner at 12:00 tells me market is indecisive. Plus big BOE/ECB news is coming out at 7&7:45AM. Your chart has the huge engulfing candle down and the last four candles are living in it's shadow... May stay there until morning???

PS but I do like the looks of how the 8ema is holding....

PPS note the time left on the bar (posted a little b/f 10PM EST, 68 minutes to next bar, 11PM)....(for Ryan)
Attached Image
  • #11,379
  • Feb 6, 2008 7:28pm Feb 6, 2008 7:28pm
One other thing to note is the market has retraced around 61.8% of the rise from 22Jan to 30 Jan. Critical point in the market if the bear is to continue...

News tomorrow will likely tell....

Quoting Ryanmcd
Not sure why I am having a problem looking at this chart, most of the time I would say if this closes red go short, but some reason I am not feeling it. Any ideas?
  • #11,380
  • Feb 6, 2008 7:50pm Feb 6, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting EricthePip
One other thing to note is the market has retraced around 61.8% of the rise from 22Jan to 30 Jan. Critical point in the market if the bear is to continue...

News tomorrow will likely tell....

Thanks for the chart info, Now I will only miss the 3am and catch the 11pm and 7am bars That was my biggest problem anyway.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
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