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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

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  • Post #1,161
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  • Jan 4, 2008 10:11am Jan 4, 2008 10:11am
  •  bodra
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 82 Posts
Quoting Bobokus
Disliked
The 1.9835/1.9850 is still very strong resistance, so I remain selling rally's until these upper levels can be breached. I will continue to watch the waveforms that form though(higher or lower highs and lows).A Daily close above 1.9782 and we will most likely see resistance tested again, A Daily close below 1.9740 and we may make another new low.Im done for the day its not worth the risk to make any more trades today.
But as it stands now farther weakness is in the cards.
Ignored

My sentiments exactly. It's a bit too messy at the moment. I'm still reading bearish pressure but will look for a close below 1.9740.
 
 
  • Post #1,162
  • Quote
  • Jan 4, 2008 10:36am Jan 4, 2008 10:36am
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Quoting bodra
Disliked
My sentiments exactly. It's a bit too messy at the moment. I'm still reading bearish pressure but will look for a close below 1.9740.
Ignored
Yep, best trade for the rest of the day is no trade.Let the market movers battle it out, and we will go with the winner come monday during the london session.
 
 
  • Post #1,163
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:46pm Jan 5, 2008 4:46pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
I thought Id make a few posts on what I go through on a daily basis when trading Intraday. I started out thinking I would retrade all of last week but as I began I realized 1 day will be alot more than I anticipated. So ill do 1 day instead of the entire week.I started this as the last week began (Monday the 31st) using Vhands to try and explaign the steps as the day unfolds.It will take a few posts here so bare with me..
The charts are numberd in sequence day1,day1a.day1b, etc... in case they dont come out in order here.

As the day starts, I have my Daily fibs set up in the background, the Retracement fib pulled from the low made on the 25th. and marked the levels of it so they will stand out. Also the Intraday fib pulled on friday to give me an idea of the next movements direction.The market at the time was in an uptrend when viewed from the 1 hour timeframe so my bias was to continue to buy dips. The market opens inside the Intraday levels(also marked so they will stand out) on Sunday. Me I like to wait during the first of the week until a support or resistance area is tested.As the day unfolds I see price drop and test the support levels from the previous day(Friday).This unfolds as a dip in price, now I look for the bounce or failure to break long from the Intraday fib levels.Price is showing support as the levels are tested and I enter long on the break of the Intraday Long fib level. At the open of the 0400 candle I enter long at 1.9983 or 1.9987 with the spread.

Continue'd in the next post......................
 
 
  • Post #1,164
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:48pm Jan 5, 2008 4:48pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
hmm too many charts for 1 post so ill put them here
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  • Post #1,165
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:49pm Jan 5, 2008 4:49pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
2nd set for the 1 day of trading
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  • Post #1,166
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:57pm Jan 5, 2008 4:57pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
ok just 2 charts per post then...

Now that I have entered, naturally price moves against the position, but no worries unless the same Intraday levels are broken to the short side, which in turn will not be used as a stoploss but a stop and reverse move.
As this unfolds the Intraday levels hold and actually give another opportunity to go long again but for this example with only $1000 and 5% margin rule per trade in a regular account it would be too much.So far everything is ok and the levels are holding.Price makes to the pivot point of Fridays movement and penetrates it but quickly wicks back to it (a good sign).

Continued in the next post..............
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  • Post #1,167
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:09pm Jan 5, 2008 5:09pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
The bounce off the Intraday pivot proves to be pretty strong in this trade and test the previous high pretty quickly.It doeasnt always go this smoothly, but when I get another chance and the time i will post a trade through a more difficult day.
Something I want you aware of is something you witness time and time again, during the coarse of just a 1 hour candle it can retrace its length in both directions several times and this use to be one the traits I had to rid myself of was when this would happen I would exit the trade in fear of it moving against me then 15 minute later it goes in the direction i wanted and Im out of the trade. Sound familiar ?
Anyway, I now watch for the close of each candle because this is the 1st clue to continuation or reversing.In the sense of do they continue to close high in a long trade or do they continue to close low in a short trade.These are the things that you will pick up over time ...watch as each 1 hour candle closes or the very last few minutes of it, what you will see is the action or movement accelerate very often.
And in these examples here once we have reassurance the move is correct and price goes to test the previous high we see some of this very action...because the previous high will almost always offer resistance. I catch a break here because this time for this trade the previous high breaks. At this point I have pretty good reasoning to set my target now.

continued in the next post...............
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  • Post #1,168
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:20pm Jan 5, 2008 5:20pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Once i get the break of the high now I look for my target, safest to me is the 138.2 extention from the Intraday fib.I set my target 5 pips or so just shy of it too make up for slop in the chart feeds,the fact that intraday trading this way fibs dont hit exactly to the pip,and sometimes the spread...they are just a measurment tool to get you in the ballpark.
This is where it gets interesting sometimes, what happens in this trade is just shy of the target it meets very good resistance that send price back down.
At this point I want to know if my trade will be safe by watching to see if price get picked back up by buying, one of the purposes of the Swing fib I use.I pull a swing fib now to the high just shy of my target(must have had it too close to target this time).I watch the levels of it in the very same manner... if the levels hold my trade will most likely be safe. this may even provide another entry opportunity, but again with this much margin its not smart ...just play it out.

continued in the next post.................
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  • Post #1,169
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:25pm Jan 5, 2008 5:25pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
This shows some of the action on each candle i mentioned earlier this candle retraces it self fully in both directions, It makes it all the way back to its top and makes a new high on itself after testing the pivot level of the Swing fib(good sign for the trade though) buying is still strong.
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  • Post #1,170
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:40pm Jan 5, 2008 5:40pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
The last candle actually makes it to the target and takes me out of the market now and i look for another opportunity.Since the news high were made I move my fibs up to match the movement.I also remove the Intraday fib from the previous day.One of the reasons is after seeing the action that has just unfolded there was never really much of a retracement yet only small dips, so I replace my Intraday and Swing into the same fib and look at the entire last move up here on the 1 hour.There may be an opportunity to catch a few on a retracement if it unfolds.
Also after my target was reached price continued to push higher but tryin to grap those extra pips will most likely cost you some, its better to not try and get every single pip but take what the market provides at the time.Its easy to look back and say look at all those pips i missed...but tryin to get back in and get those is a mistake.Wait for the next opportunity it will come.
The first thig I look for at this time now is an entry point, the previous candle lows are prime since we made a fairly steady move here.this type of trade I consider a scalp since it is counter trend and much more dangerous. If the entry is picked up I only look to the previous support levels as an exit, and the previous high will force me out for a small loss.If price moves to far away from the previous candle lows I would not trade and be done for the day since the next trade may last up to the NY close and be too late to be in a trade.I would use the new fib pulled here from the last move up.In an uptrend they will act as bounce points so they would in turn be the exits for the scalp trade.

continued in the next post......
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  • Post #1,171
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:42pm Jan 5, 2008 5:42pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
The wife want me to get the grill started, ill post the next few examples in a few...BRB
 
 
  • Post #1,172
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:56pm Jan 5, 2008 5:56pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Luck is still on my side so far and my sell stop gets picked up and target set to the Swing fib level long is hit very quickly and takes me out of the market again.
Done for day now with a good profit, sit back and watch the action time now, get setup for the next trading day by adjusting the fibs and watching price action.
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  • Post #1,173
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:03pm Jan 5, 2008 6:03pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
The day as everyone knows ended with a big selloff but I would have been out of the market, to me jumping on these long candles looked suicidal since they stood the chance of retracing on themselves and with it being the close for a holiday you definatley dont want to get stuck in a trade. Also its inside the retracement fibs levels and I would look for the break out of them anyway and there is a previous low there too close to take the break of the Swing fib.

This is jumping on a falling knife. Never feel as if you missed pips or are missing out on pips the market will reset itself and your opportunity will arise again.Then its back to work
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  • Post #1,174
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:48pm Jan 5, 2008 6:48pm
  •  Skunny
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2007 | 690 Posts
Quoting Bobokus
Disliked
The wife want me to get the grill started, ill post the next few examples in a few...BRB
Ignored
You don't know how to grill: Lighting a hay fire next to your potbelly isn't considered a grilling event.
Robonacci com
 
 
  • Post #1,175
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 7:03pm Jan 5, 2008 7:03pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Quoting Skunny
Disliked
You don't know how to grill: Lighting a hay fire next to your potbelly isn't considered a grilling event.
Ignored
Shur is ifin Im makin cracklins
 
 
  • Post #1,176
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 7:17pm Jan 5, 2008 7:17pm
  •  ozzibob
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 22 Posts
Hi Bobokus

Being a newbie regarding Forex Trading I would like to thank you very much for starting this thread. I'm reading CAREFULLY through all the comments so as to understand your system. It's sounds good.

Keep up the good work.

Regards

Ozzibob
 
 
  • Post #1,177
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2008 7:29pm Jan 5, 2008 7:29pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Quoting ozzibob
Disliked
Hi Bobokus

Being a newbie regarding Forex Trading I would like to thank you very much for starting this thread. I'm reading CAREFULLY through all the comments so as to understand your system. It's sounds good.

Keep up the good work.

Regards

Ozzibob
Ignored
Welcome to the thread then
 
 
  • Post #1,178
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2008 2:28am Jan 6, 2008 2:28am
  •  bhkkrishna
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: bhkkrishna | 20 Posts
hi Bobokus,

It is really marvellous, although i am fan of fib and uses the swings or yesterday high/low , you have provided more insights.

Your excise template is excellant as if it made a walkthrough from apr to todate. I really appreciate and thankful for your efforts like helping to educate others.

It seems a doji formed on dailychart in cable, is it also says a reversal is imminent and let the market to prove , it is ready for correction by breaking the fibs
 
 
  • Post #1,179
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2008 9:11am Jan 6, 2008 9:11am
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
Quoting bhkkrishna
Disliked
hi Bobokus,

It is really marvellous, although i am fan of fib and uses the swings or yesterday high/low , you have provided more insights.

Your excise template is excellant as if it made a walkthrough from apr to todate. I really appreciate and thankful for your efforts like helping to educate others.

It seems a doji formed on dailychart in cable, is it also says a reversal is imminent and let the market to prove , it is ready for correction by breaking the fibs
Ignored
Yes Friday closed at 1.9737 basically where it opened the only thing I dont like about friday's daily candle is it is closing in the lower half of the candle so there is the possibilty that we could see more pressure to the downside before we get another test of resistance. It will take a break of and a Daily close above the 1.9835/1.9850 level just to get some of the pressure off.
 
 
  • Post #1,180
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:57pm Jan 6, 2008 5:57pm
  •  Bobokus
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts
So far in early trading there hasnt been much goin on, I show an open of 1.9733, low of 1.9721 and a high so far around 1.9751. It looks to open on our platforms right around 1.9740 so no gap of any significance.
 
 
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