Hey Lep welcome back. Good to see you back. Hope you sorted out all your issues with the broker
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #57,003
- Jan 2, 2008 7:34pm Jan 2, 2008 7:34pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
further fall.. wait for a rejection on the 30min trend line before going short
Daily Forex Analysis
to any new people remember aus said that we only expect that short upon price being REJECTED at the trendline.... if price breaks the trendline then the short may have to wait for retracing period to end.... IMO It would be wise to remain open to both possibilites.... but if aus says there will be further downs you can bet that sooner or later down she will go! I'm going to be joining aus website this year at some point so i hope to see some of you in his subscription room .(where aus gives his real time analysis and signals I think)...hope to learn even more from it ...thanks again aus for this thread and all you have done for people like me!
- #57,004
- Jan 2, 2008 7:48pm Jan 2, 2008 7:48pm
- Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Trade @ your own risk | 6,628 Posts
to any new people remember aus said that we only expect that short upon price being REJECTED at the trendline.... if price breaks the trendline then the short may have to wait for retracing period to end.
Daily momentum is showing a further fall.. However the indicators are starving for a retracement to come out of the OS levels. There is no trend reversal to be seen at this stage. Rejection from the 30min trend line is highly expected. But I wouldnt bet my life on it since the pair had traveled almost 700pips without a proper retracement.
- #57,005
- Jan 2, 2008 8:43pm Jan 2, 2008 8:43pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
thank you aus! love when you check in! to all those unfamiliar here is a link to aus site....
Daily Forex Analysis
to any new people remember aus said that we only expect that short upon price being REJECTED at the trendline.... if price breaks the trendline then the short may have to wait for retracing period to end.... IMO It would be wise to remain open to both possibilites.... but if aus says there will be further downs you can bet that sooner or later down she will go! I'm going to be joining aus website this year at some point so i hope to see some of you in his subscription room .(where aus gives his real time analysis and signals I think)...hope to learn even more from it ...thanks again aus for this thread and all you have done for people like me!
- #57,006
- Jan 2, 2008 8:52pm Jan 2, 2008 8:52pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
spoton mate..
Daily momentum is showing a further fall.. However the indicators are starving for a retracement to come out of the OS levels. There is no trend reversal to be seen at this stage. Rejection from the 30min trend line is highly expected. But I wouldnt bet my life on it since the pair had traveled almost 700pips without a proper retracement.
- #57,009
- Jan 2, 2008 9:27pm Jan 2, 2008 9:27pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Would be interested in Aus's subscription also.
aus has set a donation price of only 40 bucks a month that is donated to red cross
- #57,010
- Jan 2, 2008 9:32pm Jan 2, 2008 9:32pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
aus has set a donation price of only 40 bucks a month that is donated to red cross
- #57,013
- Jan 2, 2008 9:47pm Jan 2, 2008 9:47pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,673 Posts | Online Now
- #57,014
- Jan 2, 2008 10:05pm Jan 2, 2008 10:05pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Counter Trend, but not always! | 2,147 Posts
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
- #57,015
- Jan 2, 2008 10:06pm Jan 2, 2008 10:06pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
don't anyone see it should touch pivot level 218.3...any update seniors?
thats not a bad thought..... i think we may be in for ranging for a while until european market opens.... right now we are just drifitng so i dont think there is much risk to taking a small postion with a tight stop loss if you think it will keep drifting up based on your analysis.... I think it will go up to at least test the upper tl at some point..... but you must remember you would be trading against the large trend...which is still down as aus pointed out earlier.....so.... personally my sysytem does not allow me to trade until there is a trend break or hard rejecion from a trendline....so..... i am on the sidelines until the market invites me back in.... (trading can be extremely boring sometimes but it beats the heck out of losing trades)
- #57,016
- Jan 2, 2008 10:18pm Jan 2, 2008 10:18pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
I've my short still open, I presume if any retrace occurs, it will be limited to 219.12 (23.8 fib) or may be 220.88 (38.2 fib). If the price rejects 30 min trend line (as Aus said) then it'll be 220.88 area for loading more shorts.
I will be happy to hear any opinion ...
personally i try to "swing trade" and go up or down and catch a piece of retraces as well as trends...so i took profits already a while back..... i personally would not want to ride out 196 pip DRAWdown retrace...matter of fact i would want to catch some of that up ride9IF AND ONLY IF MY OWN SYSTEM TOLD ME IT WAS A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE OPPORTUNITY) ....i like to keep my hard earned pips...but i am conservative..... its up to you and your style and your analysis.... but..... why not pay another 8 pip spread and re-enter whichever way the market tells you to according your own system...... i think each session has its own little mini trend...(WHAT I CALL A SWING) so the european session could have a a little mini rally -ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE IN FOREX ESPECIALLY THE GEPPY what if fx-petra is correct and this thing starts going north now for a big swing???? my opinion is have a plan and stick to it....... and use good Money management..... hope that helps
thats not a bad thought..... i think we may be in for ranging for a while until european market opens.... right now we are just drifitng so i dont think there is much risk to taking a small postion with a tight stop loss if you think it will keep drifting up based on your analysis.... I think it will go up to at least test the upper tl at some point..... but you must remember you would be trading against the large trend...which is still down as aus pointed out earlier.....so.... personally my sysytem does not allow me to trade until there is a trend break or hard rejecion from a trendline....so..... i am on the sidelines until the market invites me back in.... (trading can be extremely boring sometimes but it beats the heck out of losing trades)
...I'm waiting to load short post..not dare to take any long position unless 4h bar form top of 220.26 
- #57,019
- Jan 2, 2008 10:43pm Jan 2, 2008 10:43pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Counter Trend, but not always! | 2,147 Posts
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
- #57,020
- Jan 2, 2008 10:45pm Jan 2, 2008 10:45pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Thanks Dagoods
MY PLEASURE..... here is what i see right now.... we have made a td seq 13 on the 1 hour ...for me this is the first sign of a possible retrace to the upside...it is NOT a singal and by no means tradeable but it is the first piece of eveidence i look for when cosidering the possibilities...so NOW if we do go ahead and break an upper trendline then i will feel pretty good about trading an upside retrace (carefully) this is only a 1 hour though i usually only like to trade off of the 4 hour chart..... but this gives an example of what i'm seeing and my reasoning.... (if you care lol) i think of it as eveidence that starts to add up in pieces..... if we break the 1 hour trendline then i will check my indicators nest and price action around the tendline break to make sure it isnt a false breakout....i e is there enough momentum qqe mtf stochs pointing up if the pices of the puzzle fit... then boom ..if not we wait like a sniper until they do....sometimes you miss trades but you sure as heck sont lose many this way..... this is just how my system has eveolved from the aus strategys... eveyone is differnt.... (
ps dont get hung up on 220. this or 219 point that..... trendlnes, supply demand lines rather are constantly changing and evolving with price ... good luck tonight all