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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #281
  • Jan 5, 2007 2:33am Jan 5, 2007 2:33am
Quoting c1ro
Private Forum. Btw are u just using EW in ur analysis?
I have no private forum, and I am using the EW for a backdrop, but decisions are based on many strategies that I am trying to perfect for precise entry and exit points.

I am going to be, c u all in 3 hours or sooner.
  • #282
  • Jan 5, 2007 3:22am Jan 5, 2007 3:22am
On the 15min charts, taking todays low @ 9350 & high @ 9434, the following

Fib levels have been reached

23.6 @ 9414

38.2 @ 9401

50 @ 9392

Close to 61.8 @ 9382 (Unlikely 2 be reached...atleast not b4 NFP)

Currently Long frm 9400 with SL 9375 & TP 9450
Attached Image
  • #283
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:32am Jan 5, 2007 4:32am
Does anyone have a 30 min or less chart on the last NFP - Dec 8? Only my 40 min+ charts reach that far behind.

Anyhow, this last NFP candle shows a 41 pips down after opening then the up move...

I'm gonna stand out of the news and try to catch and eventual retracement in the following 30-60 min... Worked well demoing the last one...
  • #284
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:41am Jan 5, 2007 4:41am
The NFP does that it will move in one direction about 50 pips then may turn. Do to the inner detail of the report. I am not a news person but this is one report you need to be very careful with.
Quoting cesarnc
Does anyone have a 30 min or less chart on the last NFP - Dec 8? Only my 40 min+ charts reach that far behind.

Anyhow, this last NFP candle shows a 41 pips down after opening then the up move...

I'm gonna stand out of the news and try to catch and eventual retracement in the following 30-60 min... Worked well demoing the last one...
  • #285
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 12:57pm Jan 5, 2007 4:45am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting cesarnc
Does anyone have a 30 min or less chart on the last NFP - Dec 8? Only my 40 min+ charts reach that far behind.

Anyhow, this last NFP candle shows a 41 pips down after opening then the up move...

I'm gonna stand out of the news and try to catch and eventual retracement in the following 30-60 min... Worked well demoing the last one...
there you go
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #286
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:49am Jan 5, 2007 4:49am
Quoting cesarnc
Does anyone have a 30 min or less chart on the last NFP - Dec 8? Only my 40 min+ charts reach that far behind.
http://i58.photobucket.com/albums/g2...p-12-14-06.gif
Is your SL my TP?
  • #287
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:56am Jan 5, 2007 4:56am
Thanks, guys.

Hey kenmania, thanks for the 5 min. Just a question here, this 40s down initiated BEFORE the news time? In my charts it appears within the 13:30GMT...

Sorry to bother.. Just want to figure out what to expect from this...

In time, NFP and ADP didn't match only 3 times since 2003, all of them in 2003...
  • #288
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:00am Jan 5, 2007 5:00am
Evidently, yes. First (long) bear bar on the five minute is @ 13:25.



Quoting cesarnc
Thanks, guys.

Hey kenmania, thanks for the 5 min. Just a question here, this 40s down initiated BEFORE the news time? In my charts it appears within the 13:30GMT...

Sorry to bother.. Just want to figure out what to expect from this...

In time, NFP and ADP didn't match only 3 times since 2003, all of them in 2003...
Is your SL my TP?
  • #289
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:04am Jan 5, 2007 5:04am
Quoting kenmania
Evidently, yes. First (long) bear bar on the five minute is @ 13:25.
My bad... I meant bear bar in the clandle opening at 1330GMT... Never mind... Just wanted to check out whether this behavior is expected... Thanks...

Well... 20min+ to go....

Monarch still sleeping... Will he gonna make it?

  • #290
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 12:57pm Jan 5, 2007 5:04am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks, guys.

Hey kenmania, thanks for the 5 min. Just a question here, this 40s down initiated BEFORE the news time? In my charts it appears within the 13:30GMT...

Sorry to bother.. Just want to figure out what to expect from this...

In time, NFP and ADP didn't match only 3 times since 2003, all of them in 2003...
well, to be honest, i hate NFP. i try to stand aside.

i still see a bull flag that seems nothing more than a consolidation. price has come down to test 50% of the monthly bar that broke the previous consolidation (8850 to 9850) (includes dec 1st).

without being a elliotician, my understanding is that wave 4 consolidation is the longest (please correct me if wrong). i would see NFP bring price down to 61% at 92, for a consolidation next week, and then on with the up move.

then again, just an opinion from someone seeing the match and not playing

good luck.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #291
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:11am Jan 5, 2007 5:11am
Quoting ghitz
without being a elliotician, my understanding is that wave 4 consolidation is the longest (please correct me if wrong). i would see NFP bring price down to 61% at 92, for a consolidation next week, and then on with the up move.
g
That's exacly why I decided to stay aside, too. This is my second NFP out of hundreds, I hope. However, I see 50/50 between the market using NFP as shortcut a)- to retrace up from this 400 pips or b) to bust up many "support wannabees" and go down the road...
  • #292
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:22am Jan 5, 2007 5:22am
Yes u r 100% correct wave 4 has a lot of consolidation in it. But we could see a minor retracement up to 450 - 475 then down to the mid 200's. But this market is acting very quite right now that is a bit strange. Itis like no one knows and the big boys are holding pat too.
Quoting ghitz
well, to be honest, i hate NFP. i try to stand aside.

i still see a bull flag that seems nothing more than a consolidation. price has come down to test 50% of the monthly bar that broke the previous consolidation (8850 to 9850) (includes dec 1st).

without being a elliotician, my understanding is that wave 4 consolidation is the longest (please correct me if wrong). i would see NFP bring price down to 61% at 92, for a consolidation next week, and then on with the up move.

then again, just an opinion from someone seeing the match and not playing

good luck.

g
  • #293
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:25am Jan 5, 2007 5:25am
There some different strategies to be used on the News, but depending on your broker if you can get in on time, expecially the NFP.

You could take a postition prior to the movement, and try to exit if it turn against you, but then again, it could be 60 pips down the road before your able to close out.

If your tight on money, sit out and wait, many opportunities to make a profit without trading the news.

I have no positions opened.
  • #294
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:32am Jan 5, 2007 5:32am
When can we consider long the retracement back? 9300 seems hard, but not that unbeatable yet
  • #295
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:32am Jan 5, 2007 5:32am
Can we see a retracement at 1.9310 and go long for a few pips?
  • #296
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:33am Jan 5, 2007 5:33am
If new candle opens above 1.9321 I am going Long.

Just a test of strategies.
  • #297
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:34am Jan 5, 2007 5:34am
86 + pips for the NFP
trading on demo is not trading
  • #298
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:36am Jan 5, 2007 5:36am
Quoting monarch
If new candle opens above 1.9321 I am going Long.

Just a test of strategies.
Looks like a nice call to me... 1 min rocks...
  • #299
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:39am Jan 5, 2007 5:39am
I never thought It would go this low how much lower can we go? I just set a long
trading on demo is not trading
  • #300
  • Jan 5, 2007 5:39am Jan 5, 2007 5:39am
Quoting enzo2325
86 + pips for the NFP
were you in a short when news broke?

did you close out yet?

I have not position yet.

Stalled out here

Long 1 min candle open above 1.9321
Short 1 min candle close below 1.9298
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