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  • #601
  • Nov 14, 2007 10:01am Nov 14, 2007 10:01am
Ok I'll come clean. The pliers were for 2 purposes. Opening non twist cap beer bottles and cracking walnuts.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #602
  • Nov 14, 2007 5:09pm Nov 14, 2007 5:09pm
Cable looks to try and retrace some of todays movement and give us a swing fib ,but it is the asian session and things could go pretty slowly until later.If we dont get much retracement or a test of todays Intraday fib levels Ill go with the break of the low.Not much need for the Range fib now since todays move did break the low of it. A break of the low from today and we can get past the Daily pivot fib level and try to make the Daily Short fib next sitting at 2.0360's...Low has to give way first though.Its a long way right now to consider Longs other than scalping unless we get candle openings above 2.0675, then we can look to buy dips if price can be maintained above that level today.
But unless we get that Im selling rally's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #603
  • Nov 15, 2007 1:08am Nov 15, 2007 1:08am
Great;
The light is now on for me and I am hungry.
I used to use my pliers to remove the skin on frogs legs.
But since I can't get those little wheel chairs for them anymore out of China I don't eat them. Can't stand the little clicking sound of all the tiny crutches.
  • #604
  • Nov 15, 2007 9:23am Nov 15, 2007 9:23am
I decided to open a spare chart that I could mark up without disrupting my main one and I'm going back over the past 2 weeks and checking how I could have done with certain entry and exit rules including fixed target and stop placements based on swing levels (not arbitrary panic profits).

On this chart I only have intraday and swing fibs to keep things basic and also to help trade unbiased, no hesitating based on resistance just outside an entry point or near a target level. I can look more closely at any failed trades and see what could have happened, but I'm just trying to see how it would have gone. Besides, worst case, if I were trading real time and hesitated due to some other fibs in the way, all that goes wrong is I don't enter that trade, so I don't take a loss. It can only get better with discretion added to a basic blind approach.

I'll post results and observations after. I so far have gone through nov 1 and 2, Thursday and Friday first week of this month and from what I see, swing fibs could have given +59 after spread.

It's of course subject to where someone decides to draw swings. I'm writing notes on each trade along with screen shots. I'm also only targeting T1 for the most conservative results. I'm logging in a spreadsheet each trade's swing area price, target prices, and some other prices like how far the price did move beyond target, and how far it retraced before hitting any targets (I'm looking at a 1 minute chart to follow the trade after an entry would have been triggered to be sure it wouldn't have been stopped out before reaching targets. Also this helps observe what happens during news times and I can omit trade results in my chart because I can't know how the orders would have been filled and if I'd get a loss or break even or profit from slippage).

So for the 2 days I've logged it looks fine but that's not very much time. If I find anything useful throughout 2 weeks of testing I'll try to PDF it and attach it.

If I think it's worth it after finishing this month, I will find more benefit in doing this for October. That month was completely ranging as can be seen on a 4 hour chart, up and down across the envelope. November has been up and down trending so maybe the results are a bit optimistic.

The goal is to figure out where I should place stops mostly, so I can do it without emotion and accept the odds instead of fearing a 40 stop for a big target that I don't know if I'll ever reach (prompting me to take profit too soon and possibly ending up with a loss due to watching it go around and trying to decide what to do with it).

For now I'm going about it as if I had a stop placed at the swing pivot and aimed for T1 exit. I'm seeing that in those 2 days so far, omitting a news trade that I can't clearly evaluate (1 minute candle shows a spike through entry and exit so who knows), I logged 5 trades. Four reached T2, one reached only T1, but they all reached a target and none were stopped.

This exercise is time consuming so I have no idea when I'll be done. I spent a few hours today just doing those 2 days of re-trading but it should speed up when I'm in the rhythm.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #605
  • Edited 10:07am Nov 15, 2007 9:46am | Edited 10:07am
One thing I do notice and I have noticed before, we have been following a general guideline that swing fibs should be pulled across a swing range of at least 30 pips.

I'm finding even that to be tight. The T1 level is too close to the breakout level and after spread there isn't much worth going for. Also with the range being that tight, the pivot stop loss is too close to the entry price and can be prematurely triggered.

As I go through the steps I'll make the observations that may help point to a solution such as either widen the swing minimum acceptable range, or if taking a range as small as 30, widen the stop to the full swing range instead of pivot level. The full range is only around 30 pips and not unreasonable for cable.

Right now I'm on day 3 of November and the first trade is a narrow swing range that would have been stopped out with pivot stops before reaching T1, but by widening the stop or ignoring that trade and getting in on the next one, it would have been successful. I don't feel I'm trying to curve fit the technique to accommodate my stumbling block, I've felt this way all along but didn't know what to do about it. That's why I want to go through the exercise, to make good observations without being under the pressure.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #606
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:46am Nov 15, 2007 10:46am
Quoting Thexder
I decided to open a spare chart that I could mark up without disrupting my main one and I'm going back over the past 2 weeks and checking how I could have done with certain entry and exit rules including fixed target and stop placements based on swing levels (not arbitrary panic profits).

On this chart I only have intraday and swing fibs to keep things basic and also to help trade unbiased, no hesitating based on resistance just outside an entry point or near a target level. I can look more closely at any failed trades and see what could have happened, but I'm just trying to see how it would have gone. Besides, worst case, if I were trading real time and hesitated due to some other fibs in the way, all that goes wrong is I don't enter that trade, so I don't take a loss. It can only get better with discretion added to a basic blind approach.

I'll post results and observations after. I so far have gone through nov 1 and 2, Thursday and Friday first week of this month and from what I see, swing fibs could have given +59 after spread.

It's of course subject to where someone decides to draw swings. I'm writing notes on each trade along with screen shots. I'm also only targeting T1 for the most conservative results. I'm logging in a spreadsheet each trade's swing area price, target prices, and some other prices like how far the price did move beyond target, and how far it retraced before hitting any targets (I'm looking at a 1 minute chart to follow the trade after an entry would have been triggered to be sure it wouldn't have been stopped out before reaching targets. Also this helps observe what happens during news times and I can omit trade results in my chart because I can't know how the orders would have been filled and if I'd get a loss or break even or profit from slippage).

So for the 2 days I've logged it looks fine but that's not very much time. If I find anything useful throughout 2 weeks of testing I'll try to PDF it and attach it.

If I think it's worth it after finishing this month, I will find more benefit in doing this for October. That month was completely ranging as can be seen on a 4 hour chart, up and down across the envelope. November has been up and down trending so maybe the results are a bit optimistic.

The goal is to figure out where I should place stops mostly, so I can do it without emotion and accept the odds instead of fearing a 40 stop for a big target that I don't know if I'll ever reach (prompting me to take profit too soon and possibly ending up with a loss due to watching it go around and trying to decide what to do with it).

For now I'm going about it as if I had a stop placed at the swing pivot and aimed for T1 exit. I'm seeing that in those 2 days so far, omitting a news trade that I can't clearly evaluate (1 minute candle shows a spike through entry and exit so who knows), I logged 5 trades. Four reached T2, one reached only T1, but they all reached a target and none were stopped.

This exercise is time consuming so I have no idea when I'll be done. I spent a few hours today just doing those 2 days of re-trading but it should speed up when I'm in the rhythm.

You will over time develope your own style and then it will make even more sense.I realize that not everyone is going to trade fibs as I do since I have developed my own style over time.If I can show the tools though and each individual finds a use for it in their method then I accomplished what I was after..Showing the potential in Fibonacci and how it can be applied to realtime trading.There are numerous places you can go to learn about Fib's but very very few that can show how to put them to use. Hopefully evryone is getting something from this and I feel a few are, even if its only learning how the market moves and reacts to support and resistance levels.Backtesting and forward testing are what will develope your trading style over time.
Me personally i never stop backtesting, I will retrade the market over and over again using the VhandsTrade EA I posted earlier in the thread.
Originally to me fibs didnt make much sense, you always here things like if it retraces to the 23.6 then target the 76.4 extention...or if it is rejected from the 38.2 target the 127 extention blah blah blah. But what I noticed is that price does respect the Fib levels but what everyone was telling me about fibs didnt make any sense so i sat down and forced myself to backtrade with fibs until i got to the point of wanting to quit all together. What i realized was that there were patterns i started to notice, from that i re-structured the fib levels to display only the 38.2 the 50 and the 61.8. the reason being that once price had made a move and retraced you could place a fib on the move (what later became the Intraday fibs) and then another on the retracement(which became the Swing fib) what i noticed was that once price broke away from the swing fibs levels and it was in agreement with the Intraday fibs it was almost quaranteed trade to the extentions. I found that once price had broken the levels in either direction that it will travel to the 138.2 and the 161.8 extentions almost everytime. So it was clear that the move the price break came from could be used to detirmine the range price can travel after the break of its levels.During ranging periods however the success rate deteriorates, during a trend it almose quaranteed to hit the 138.2 and 161.8 price action and momentum help detirmine the stall point.
At that point i started with the Range fib and the success began to come back some during the ranging periods.I also noticed from trading ealier in my trading career that MA's could be used to detirmine the trend length especially when a trending move ends since this is when most ranging periods began and thats where the 64 envelope comes in at and how i use it. I dont base any trades from it i use it as a guide as to when to expect ranging so I can switch modes of trading.
The envelope period isnt as important since you can use anything from say a 50 to 100 or so on the 1 hour chart, Ive just used 50 to 64 period since it fits Cable well, other pairs will probobly be different and need its own.
So yes backtest with one pair until you get sick of it...but you'll be able to trade when your done and feel confident about it.!
  • #607
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:50am Nov 15, 2007 10:50am
Quoting Thexder
One thing I do notice and I have noticed before, we have been following a general guideline that swing fibs should be pulled across a swing range of at least 30 pips.

I'm finding even that to be tight. The T1 level is too close to the breakout level and after spread there isn't much worth going for. Also with the range being that tight, the pivot stop loss is too close to the entry price and can be prematurely triggered.

As I go through the steps I'll make the observations that may help point to a solution such as either widen the swing minimum acceptable range, or if taking a range as small as 30, widen the stop to the full swing range instead of pivot level. The full range is only around 30 pips and not unreasonable for cable.

Right now I'm on day 3 of November and the first trade is a narrow swing range that would have been stopped out with pivot stops before reaching T1, but by widening the stop or ignoring that trade and getting in on the next one, it would have been successful. I don't feel I'm trying to curve fit the technique to accommodate my stumbling block, I've felt this way all along but didn't know what to do about it. That's why I want to go through the exercise, to make good observations without being under the pressure.


It is OK to curb fit trading to what suits you thats where you are gonna find success at.You just have to stick with it and remember the success you had backtesting and what worked for you during that... you come up with the set of rules to trade by and repeat it over and over and over again.
  • #608
  • Nov 15, 2007 10:54am Nov 15, 2007 10:54am
Well put Bo, nicely explained!!!!!


Couldn't have said it better myself.......well maybe...lol
Robonacci com
  • #609
  • Nov 15, 2007 11:39am Nov 15, 2007 11:39am
Quoting Bobokus
It is OK to curb fit trading to what suits you thats where you are gonna find success at.You just have to stick with it and remember the success you had backtesting and what worked for you during that... you come up with the set of rules to trade by and repeat it over and over and over again.
What I'm hoping to do in tweaking (curve fitting) is come up with something that does work overall and not just making excuses for a failed trade and alter the "method" for a single case. I want to narrow it down so that if some situation occurs, then I apply the tweak every time that occurs. So it's a real method adaptation.

I've looked at 2 more days now and found such a stumbling block in tweaking, not really a problem with a failed trade but more of a "how not to miss a good move". In my notes I'm leaving it open to the experience of the individual to either stand aside and wait for a better setup or do some advanced speculating at the risk of being wrong and getting stopped. So as long as I acknowledge everything I see I'm content for now.

I know it's only Thursday but I'm thinking about stocking up on the weekend beer today. I'm anxious to use those new pliers.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #610
  • Nov 15, 2007 11:46am Nov 15, 2007 11:46am
Quoting Thexder
What I'm hoping to do in tweaking (curve fitting) is come up with something that does work overall and not just making excuses for a failed trade and alter the "method" for a single case. I want to narrow it down so that if some situation occurs, then I apply the tweak every time that occurs. So it's a real method adaptation.

I've looked at 2 more days now and found such a stumbling block in tweaking, not really a problem with a failed trade but more of a "how not to miss a good move". In my notes I'm leaving it open to the experience of the individual to either stand aside and wait for a better setup or do some advanced speculating at the risk of being wrong and getting stopped. So as long as I acknowledge everything I see I'm content for now.

I know it's only Thursday but I'm thinking about stocking up on the weekend beer today. I'm anxious to use those new pliers.
I like the good ole easy open bottles of Miller Lite
  • #611
  • Nov 15, 2007 12:02pm Nov 15, 2007 12:02pm
I don't know what I'll end up buying this time but it'll surely be a high %. One of the benefits of Canada is the beer. And no we don't all use the toolbox in the kitchen, just me.

I'm up to the end of day Nov 6 in my analysis. +82 pips so far (where were they went I needed them)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #612
  • Nov 15, 2007 12:21pm Nov 15, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting Thexder
I don't know what I'll end up buying this time but it'll surely be a high %. One of the benefits of Canada is the beer. And no we don't all use the toolbox in the kitchen, just me.

I'm up to the end of day Nov 6 in my analysis. +82 pips so far (where were they went I needed them)
Ohh ,thats when you were tryin to get the bottles opened with the pliers
  • #613
  • Nov 15, 2007 2:22pm Nov 15, 2007 2:22pm
Hi Bo,
Thanks a lot for all your work. You've done so so much.

I was wondering if you could post your template file and or indicators used to get your latest terminal view http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=602

Its hard to really get a grasp of it all coming in late. A template or indie might help. I know you've said in the past you place all the fibs by hand. Do you really get out the pen and paper and then plot a line across at the price with metatrader

So im now trying to figure out the current daily high
way back here: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=78
you said you dont change the high until a new one has been reached so i presume, the current high is on the 9th of nov? at 2.1162 or so GBPUSD

I was trying to use the bobokusfibo.mq4 posted way back to plot the lines but it doesnt seem to calc them correct so i'll have to back to basics myself, until i fix the indie

Thats all i've figured out so far. Intraday and swings still to come! I've read the thread twice now...
  • #614
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:45pm Nov 15, 2007 3:45pm
I've now come across a few trading days where it's all up to subjectivity of how to draw the swings and act on them, which is what I was hoping to uncover, all the instances where I'd freeze and wonder where I should redraw fibs or if I should even be thinking about it vs waiting for the air to clear. I'm talking about times where there's spikes happening in the candles that threaten both extremes of the swing fibs - when a spike barely takes out a swing high/low and almost takes out the other end at the same time, do we sit aside and let it calm down, or follow some rules about where the overall directional bias appears to be, or just redraw the high/low wherever the spikes may have indicated?

I'm basically making the notes to suit what seems like the best course of action in retrospect for the purpose of applying it in the future (not curve fitting the past) and as a result I may be contradicting prior actions so I'll have to go back over my own notes when I'm done and optimize them (creative accounting?) to suit the most current 'understandings' (buzz word) of how to treat certain scenarios.

Always something to learn.

Which is good.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #615
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:45pm Nov 15, 2007 3:45pm
Quoting jicjoc
Hi Bo,
Thanks a lot for all your work. You've done so so much.

I was wondering if you could post your template file and or indicators used to get your latest terminal view http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=602

Its hard to really get a grasp of it all coming in late. A template or indie might help. I know you've said in the past you place all the fibs by hand. Do you really get out the pen and paper and then plot a line across at the price with metatrader

So im now trying to figure out the current daily high
way back here: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=78
you said you dont change the high until a new one has been reached so i presume, the current high is on the 9th of nov? at 2.1162 or so GBPUSD

I was trying to use the bobokusfibo.mq4 posted way back to plot the lines but it doesn't seem to calc them correct so i'll have to back to basics myself, until i fix the indie

Thats all I've figured out so far. Intraday and swings still to come! I've read the thread twice now...
Hey Brother,
Ya need to draw fibs manually, there isn't an automatic fib drawer that will do you much good. Sorry to be the barer of bad news, you'll just have to spend some time in the shop testing.
Robonacci com
  • #616
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:48pm Nov 15, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting Bobokus
Ohh ,thats when you were tryin to get the bottles opened with the pliers
Hey Bo, have a great vacation and watch out for Jaws. Tell your wife I said hi!
Robonacci com
  • #617
  • Nov 15, 2007 3:57pm Nov 15, 2007 3:57pm
Quoting jicjoc
Hi Bo,
Thanks a lot for all your work. You've done so so much.

I was wondering if you could post your template file and or indicators used to get your latest terminal view http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=602

Its hard to really get a grasp of it all coming in late. A template or indie might help. I know you've said in the past you place all the fibs by hand. Do you really get out the pen and paper and then plot a line across at the price with metatrader

So im now trying to figure out the current daily high
way back here: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=78
you said you dont change the high until a new one has been reached so i presume, the current high is on the 9th of nov? at 2.1162 or so GBPUSD

I was trying to use the bobokusfibo.mq4 posted way back to plot the lines but it doesnt seem to calc them correct so i'll have to back to basics myself, until i fix the indie

Thats all i've figured out so far. Intraday and swings still to come! I've read the thread twice now...
Ill post a template once i get home in about an hour or so with my curren fibs placed on it.And yes had to program the high of 2.1161 since our charts didnt show the actual high.
I draw the fibs manually since its not always the high and the low of a single day your pulling them across.
  • #618
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:01pm Nov 15, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting Thexder
I've now come across a few trading days where it's all up to subjectivity of how to draw the swings and act on them, which is what I was hoping to uncover, all the instances where I'd freeze and wonder where I should redraw fibs or if I should even be thinking about it vs waiting for the air to clear. I'm talking about times where there's spikes happening in the candles that threaten both extremes of the swing fibs - when a spike barely takes out a swing high/low and almost takes out the other end at the same time, do we sit aside and let it calm down, or follow some rules about where the overall directional bias appears to be, or just redraw the high/low wherever the spikes may have indicated?

I'm basically making the notes to suit what seems like the best course of action in retrospect for the purpose of applying it in the future (not curve fitting the past) and as a result I may be contradicting prior actions so I'll have to go back over my own notes when I'm done and optimize them (creative accounting?) to suit the most current 'understandings' (buzz word) of how to treat certain scenarios.

Always something to learn.

Which is good.
I find that sometimes I will follow too closely with the Swing fib and will back it up a waveform and I will see a clearer picture...try that one.Back it up when it doesnt feel or look right until you see the levels of it being respected.
  • #619
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:03pm Nov 15, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting SKUNNY
Hey Bo, have a great vacation and watch out for Jaws. Tell your wife I said hi!

We dont leave until the AM so can get another trade day in.Ill tell Her(she needs to watch out for JAWS though)...not me LOL
  • #620
  • Nov 15, 2007 4:54pm Nov 15, 2007 4:54pm
Here is the template ive been working on, along with the Indicators ive been toying with, Ill give more explanations in later posts.But you can take a look and see what ya think now anyway.Still in the Infancy of developing them since i dont have the ma on arrays added to them yet, but they will work with normally i think if you load the template.But the indicators have to be in your MT4 platforms indicator file, for the template to load correctly.
You can change the colors to whatever you like, I just have them setup to represent my College team (Auburn).
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl swingtrader.tpl   2 KB | 1,035 downloads
File Type: mq4 SwingTrader2.mq4   2 KB | 1,573 downloads
File Type: mq4 TrendStrength.mq4   3 KB | 1,414 downloads
File Type: mq4 Magnified_Market_Price.mq4   < 1 KB | 1,016 downloads
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