Can I expect EUR/GBP to go back down? | Forex Factory

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Can I expect EUR/GBP to go back down?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 30, 2007 8:51am Oct 30, 2007 8:51am
I have some Sell trades open a few weeks now since EUR/GBP took its damn rise. Anyone know if EUR/GBP is going to go back down anytime soon?
24 hours in a day – 24 bottles of beer in a case – Coincidence? I think not
  • #2
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:22pm Oct 30, 2007 1:22pm
I heard that it is going to stay around .7000 in an effort to teach people to use stop losses.
  • #3
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:34pm Oct 30, 2007 1:34pm
If you look at EG in the long term. It is the most range bound pair out there.
We are at the top of the range now, so if the past is any indication, yes it will delcine. When? Who knows. Probably after you have given up and taken your loss. Markets are like that. This is one of my favorite pairs to trade.
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  • #4
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:43pm Oct 30, 2007 1:43pm
it wont turning back....believe me
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  • #5
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:58pm Oct 30, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting kenari05
it wont turning back....believe me
Really? Even though it has been range bound since 1997 more that 10 years?

What do you feel has changed in this pair to warrant your statement?
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  • #6
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:09pm Oct 30, 2007 2:09pm
Stoch daily is starting to turn so it's might be possible that you can get back your money, back sooner than later I hope.

Good luck.

scalpt
  • #7
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:55pm Oct 30, 2007 2:55pm
accept your loss and move on, really. i cannot comprehend how you still have a sell position(from a few weeks back) even though there was and still is a clear uptrend.
you are not always right. if the market does not what you said it should do, accept it and move on. or wait until your whole account has been blown. you decide
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #8
  • Edited 4:58pm Oct 30, 2007 3:16pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting smjones
Really? Even though it has been range bound since 1997 more that 10 years?

What do you feel has changed in this pair to warrant your statement?
fundamentals doesnt look good for gbp,...since thos northeren rock issue,..i mean against the euro ofcourse,...i think that using a SL is a wise thing in eur/gbp...
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its just money
  • #9
  • Oct 30, 2007 3:40pm Oct 30, 2007 3:40pm
You are still inside .7 and .66 range, let's see what happens next before you make another move.

scalpt
  • #10
  • Edited 4:41pm Oct 30, 2007 3:46pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting de123
fundamentals doesnt look good for gbp,...since thos northeren rock issue,..i mean against the euro ofcourse,...i think that using a SL is a wise thing in eur/gbp...

Hehe just for kicks I took your chart and completed it with a WW. Looks like a down move... I of course do not put much believe in patterns. LOL

I am prepared to trade what ever direction the EG goes... Like I said, this is one of my favorite pairs.

Edit, I removed the picture, because I just realised that is probably proprietary.
  • #11
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:07pm Oct 30, 2007 4:07pm
Hold on to your shorts. It is going back to 6800.
  • #12
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:11pm Oct 30, 2007 4:11pm
I've been frustrated with this pair on several trades and being range bound as folks have been saying makes it easy to think one has picked a top or bottom only to see it move in the wrong direction ...

Right now the overall direction appears to be trending upwards ever so slowly!!

What is the consensus on the pair breaking the .7028 top (of Sept 26th)?

I'd like to see it get there as I think it might take off quite speedily after that ...

Gary W
  • #13
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:17pm Oct 30, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting matrixebiz
I have some Sell trades open a few weeks now since EUR/GBP took its damn rise. Anyone know if EUR/GBP is going to go back down anytime soon?
irregardless if turns back in your favor right now is not important. Close the trade, and move forward properly.

Getting into a trade you should have had a point where you would have gotten out. Which brings me to how did you calculate the risk position for your trade. I take it you are new to trading(at least trading properly), so the best advice has nothing to do with which way the eur/gbp is headed, but would be for you to read the stickies in the beginner forum. The advice given in this thread about direction is meaningless without a proper foundation(specifically in MM and trade planning). I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you want to have a chance long term(if you don't then ignore this), build your foundation.
  • #14
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:34pm Oct 30, 2007 4:34pm
regardless of the support/resistance lines we might have somewhere on the chart, the pair have the same probability of going lower or not. ive seen so many times, any kind of trendlines or support lines or fibo lines have been broken. then all the technical traders/analysts will eventually find another technical explanation to describe the revealed situation.
  • #15
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:45pm Oct 30, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting mry2001
Hold on to your shorts. It is going back to 6800.
Nice analysis. Meanwhile he can keep all of his captial tied up in a losing trade and miss additional opportunity elsewhere.
  • #16
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:19pm Oct 30, 2007 5:19pm
All my capital is in these bunch of trades I have with one giving margin call already so since I have, wait lets see... Oh $25 free margin I have nothing better to do than wait it out. Yes, I am new and am not prepared right now to deposit some more money into my FOREX account I took a shot at a trade and made $100 then not to far after the margin call trade lost me $159 I've got all the luck. Hey can all you guys force a quick OverSold condition so hopefully I can quickly breakeven with the trades at least Just kidding, only if it was that easy
24 hours in a day – 24 bottles of beer in a case – Coincidence? I think not
  • #17
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:31pm Oct 30, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Nice analysis. Meanwhile he can keep all of his captial tied up in a losing trade and miss additional opportunity elsewhere.
Exactly .. This is the most important factor when one has trades in play that are currently against you ..

The decision to fold them ... even at a loss ... has to be offset by the "opportunity loss" of not having the capital to trade some more positive trades ..

I remember I once had a losing position in EUR/GBP which I held for over a week ... confident it would come back .. which it did ... then made a small profit of about $500 ... All smiles one would think!!

But alas I could not trade other pairs during that week due to my R:R and money management strategy ...

To keep my eye in I paper traded (exactly the same trades as real trades) ..

I made $800 profit on the first day of that week period!!! and made another $2k over the next couple of days still waiting for the "real" EUR/GBP trade to be closed out ...

Moral ... If it ain't working get out and move on!!

Gary W.
  • #18
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:33pm Oct 30, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I heard that it is going to stay around .7000 in an effort to teach people to use stop losses.
No, actually it told me .7100
  • #19
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:40pm Oct 30, 2007 5:40pm
I believe EUR/GBP is still range bound. I shorted 3 lots at 7010/13 with no stop loss. My target is 6850-6800.
  • #20
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:49pm Oct 30, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting mry2001
I believe EUR/GBP is still range bound. I shorted 3 lots at 7010/13 with no stop loss. My target is 6850-6800.
That explains the big spike down.
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