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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #36,841
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:22am Oct 22, 2007 11:22am
Quoting Moe
true indeed, it's the hardest part to overcome in forex trading, problem is watching your trades all day, this alone will cause you to do something stupid.
discipline, discipline, discipline...if your going to watch the charts all day gotta be disciplined enough to follow your rules you setup...if you do not watch it all day have the discipline to set a stop loss and let the trade run its course
  • #36,842
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:23am Oct 22, 2007 11:23am
Well, thanks for the kind words guys. Hopefully I learned my lesson.

I think rule #1 in trading is: Dude, it is ok to don't trade every now and then !

Overtrading simply increases your chances of getting into a bad trade....
"Lunch ? Lunch Is For Wimps !"
  • #36,843
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:26am Oct 22, 2007 11:26am
sometimes its fun to go all in, if u feel strongly about a move and use MC as the stop, really sucks when wrong and u destroy much hard work though LOL. No different than calling a pot really if u think u have the winner
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #36,844
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:30am Oct 22, 2007 11:30am
Quoting OrionsWay
sometimes its fun to go all in, if u feel strongly about a move and use MC as the stop, really sucks when wrong and u destroy much hard work though LOL. No different than calling a pot really if u think u have the winner
you try that shit an you won't be in this business long.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #36,845
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:31am Oct 22, 2007 11:31am
Quoting MrFuture
Man I hate it when I do not follow my system...there is the little Devil sitting on my shoulder that with a smile says "trade, trade !!! waiting is boring, trading is exciting, TRADE!!!"

On DEMO accts I follow the rules perfectly, live I go into this weird split personality, and I trade even when I know it does not look that good.....
I thought it was Mrs Bush who said "Trade Trade and you can have me"
  • #36,846
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:32am Oct 22, 2007 11:32am
Quoting OrionsWay
sometimes its fun to go all in, if u feel strongly about a move and use MC as the stop, really sucks when wrong and u destroy much hard work though LOL. No different than calling a pot really if u think u have the winner
It might work the first time and that is the worse thing (sends the wrong message), because you'll start thinking that it's going to work the second time, and the third time, but time will come and that account will blow out.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #36,847
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:36am Oct 22, 2007 11:36am
Quoting Moe
you try that shit an you won't be in this business long.

Moe why is that i am using R/R to my advantage if the trade is a winner i will super maximize profits if i am wrong well i placed a large order with a predetermined loss much like playing OPTIONS. Every trade NO but there are some no brainers in this game like any very high volume move on a 5 min chart during news event. the reaction to that action yields 1/5 to 1/3 the action why wouldnt i hit that move as hard as i possibly can in and out capture huge gains call it a day
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #36,848
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:38am Oct 22, 2007 11:38am
Quoting karmostaji
It might work the first time and that is the worse thing (sends the wrong message), because you'll start thinking that it's going to work the second time, and the third time, but time will come and that account will blow out.
Absolutely right, been there done that. there are some good ops around though
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #36,849
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:38am Oct 22, 2007 11:38am
For the first time in 15 years, I am seriously worried about the outlook for the British economy, the housing market and sterling. For almost the whole of the period since 1992, when British economic policy was liberated on Black Wednesday, I have been at the optimistic extreme of economic opinion in Britain. Today, however, I find myself at the opposite end.

Most economists are predicting nothing worse than a modest slowdown for the British economy next year and are laughing off the IMF’s suggestion that house prices here could fall more steeply than they have in America. But to me it appears that all the risks in the year ahead - to economic activity, employment, house prices and sterling – are now clearly on the downside.

To explain why I have turned so bearish, let me borrow the technique of Donald Rumsfeld: I will start with the obvious risks, move on to the “known unknowns” and finally to the “unknown unknowns”.

Starting with the known problems, there are essentially three, corresponding with the three main driving forces of British economic growth in the past decade. These have been financial activity, public sector spending and housing. The first two forces clearly will be much weaker in the year ahead than they have been for most of the past decade. Public sector employment has already stopped growing and will be squeezed much more tightly in the next few years. Wholesale finance and business services, which are more important to Britain than to any other major economy, are bound to experience a serious setback after the recent credit crisis.
With public sector employment and financial incomes stagnating and the wholesale mortgage markets semi-paralysed, the property boom of the past two years must – surely – be over. The only question is whether the next phase of the housing cycle will be a long period of stable prices, which is what most British economists are still predicting, or whether the boom will be followed by a bust, like the one in America, as suggested in an IMF report published in Washington last week. The IMF report did not predict a crash in British housing, but merely pointed out a simple statistical fact often mentioned on this page: house prices in Britain, along with many other European countries, have risen much faster in the past decade than US house prices and the difference in house price inflation cannot be explained by relative movements in incomes, population or interest rates.

The fact that house prices in Britain and in several other European countries (see chart) have risen 40 per cent more than the IMF can explain on the basis of such fundamental factors does not mean that they are likely to fall by this amount. But the IMF figures do show that Britain (along with Ireland, Spain, France, Denmark and many other European countries) is potentially even more vulnerable than America to a property shakeout if the forces stimulating housing demand ever run out of steam. And that is what is happening now, as the simultaneous slowdown in financial and public sector employment combines with the sudden loss of liquidity in the mortgage markets and the vertiginous levels already reached by house prices and mortgage borrowing.

Until recently I would, nevertheless, have joined the moderate majority of commentators in suggesting that the British housing market could enjoy a relatively soft landing, because of the strong underlying demand for housing, especially in London. That demand was, in turn, due mainly to London’s position as the world’s financial capital. In the past few months, however, this calculation has abruptly changed and this is where we come to Rumsfeld’s “known unknowns”.

Nobody knows how much the process of global financial liberalisation will suffer as a result of the summer credit crunch, but there is certain to be less growth in wholesale financial services than there was in the past two years. It is even harder to say whether the mismanagement of the Northern Rock crisis will damage London’s standing relative to other financial centres, but it is not going to help. Most unpredictable of all is the impact of Gordon Brown’s unexpected tax changes on London’s position as the unchallenged centre of global finance.

The post-Budget controversy over inheritance tax and capital gains tax reform, has overlooked the even more radical changes in the tax treatment of foreigners living in Britain. Anecdotally, there is already evidence of hedge funds, banks and international businesses moving some of their highly paid international staff out of London to Geneva, Monte Carlo and the Channel Islands. Of course, these tax havens will never replace London as the financial centre of Europe, but at the margin they are now likely to divert more of the international incomes and employment that would otherwise have come to Britain.
As a result, the London economy is likely to suffer much more than the rest of the British economy in the impending slowdown – and this will be particularly true of the top end of the London housing market, whereI foreigners have accounted for more than 50 per cent of the buyers in the past few years.

Indeed, the evidence of a sharp turnaround in the London property market has already started to appear in unofficial figures, such as the monthly surveys published by Primelocation.com, the high-end property website, which has reported two consecutive months of falling prices in London and an increase of 32 per cent in the number of properties for sale. To make matters worse, the preBudget change in capital gains tax could well encourage buy-to-let landlords to put their properties on the market from next April onwards to take advantage of the big tax reductions that many expect to be reversed in future budgets. This will put further downward pressure on property prices next year – another “known unknown”, suddenly introduced by an abrupt change in economic policy that nobody could have predicted even a few weeks ago.
Which brings me finally to the “unknown unknowns”, which have suddenly made the economic outlook for Britain even more uncertain, but also more alarming. All of the policy U-turns of the past few weeks, the random and uncoordinated tax reforms, the loss of confidence in the Bank of England resulting from the Northern Rock crisis and the signs of panic in the Government in response to Tory gains in the opinion polls raise serious questions about the sustainability of the economic framework that has kept Britain so prosperous and stable since 1997.

Suppose a panic-stricken Prime Minister appoints a political crony as governor of the Bank of England. Suppose that public sector unions, sensing the Government’s weakness, refuse to accept the cutbacks in public spending that the Treasury has planned. Suppose the recent tax reforms blow up in the Government’s face and end up yielding less revenue than expected.
After the events of the past few weeks, it is easy to imagine such “unknown unknowns” – and all of them spell bad news.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #36,850
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:54am Oct 22, 2007 11:54am
U know what these articles tell me do the opposite, for they expect to instill the preception into the masses of doom and gloom, but the reality is this, professional traders have a target in mind and in order to hit that target they must have ppl to sell the asset so they can buy and on the backs of their stops getting triggered drives new buying MOSTLY if the professioanls hit it hard enough at one time like a major news event. And the crowd drives the boat to the target, with very little buying by the professional at such high prices. The markets would not move without professional presence period, And if they are supporting it will not drop for they are still bullish or vice versa.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #36,851
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:50pm Oct 22, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting OrionsWay
U know what these articles tell me do the opposite, for they expect to instill the preception into the masses of doom and gloom, but the reality is this, professional traders have a target in mind and in order to hit that target they must have ppl to sell the asset so they can buy and on the backs of their stops getting triggered drives new buying MOSTLY if the professioanls hit it hard enough at one time like a major news event. And the crowd drives the boat to the target, with very little buying by the professional at such high prices. The markets would not move without professional presence period, And if they are supporting it will not drop for they are still bullish or vice versa.
Yep!
Sell the rumor buy the fact.

By the way, Let's not forget about the reason for the London bankers moving to higher ground. Rising Atlantic seas which will wipe out all of England soon.

OOPS! I forgot the US Atlantic coast. Why has the NYFed not moved all their gold from 50ft below sea level?
  • #36,852
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:04pm Oct 22, 2007 1:04pm
Too many traders are in awe of their own predictions, instead of just worrying about trading right.

Real easy to predict when you are on a demo account.
  • #36,853
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:10pm Oct 22, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting Micro-MiniMe
Yep!
Sell the rumor buy the fact.

By the way, Let's not forget about the reason for the London bankers moving to higher ground. Rising Atlantic seas which will wipe out all of England soon.

OOPS! I forgot the US Atlantic coast. Why has the NYFed not moved all their gold from 50ft below sea level?
Because they are buying the fact and selling the rumour of "rising seas". I live on a coastline. I see beach erosion and nothing else. So far. Plenty of storms but everything gets rebuilt. When the day comes and buidling are disappearing will be the day to worry. Like 2099 maybe.
  • #36,854
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:13pm Oct 22, 2007 1:13pm
Risky area now. If it keeps going up, it can break a support line (1hr chart) and keep going up. Otherwise, the same support can push it back down to continue its fall.....
"Lunch ? Lunch Is For Wimps !"
  • #36,855
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:14pm Oct 22, 2007 1:14pm
agree. easy to trade&predict when it's not your money at stake.

Quoting SunTrader
Too many traders are in awe of their own predictions, instead of just worrying about trading right.

Real easy to predict when you are on a demo account.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #36,856
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:19pm Oct 22, 2007 1:19pm
I got out !!!!!!!!! There is a God !!! I was long all day long, at one point I was -ve 70 pips. I resisted.....and now I got out at -7.

It will probably go higher, but I do not care, as long as I lost only 7 pips I am ok.....never, ever again I will break my rules. I got extremely lucky today.....
"Lunch ? Lunch Is For Wimps !"
  • #36,857
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:20pm Oct 22, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
Because they are buying the fact and selling the rumour of "rising seas". I live on a coastline. I see beach erosion and nothing else. So far. Plenty of storms but everything gets rebuilt. When the day comes and buidling are disappearing will be the day to worry. Like 2099 maybe.
I mean Crap!
The noise gets to be too much at times like these. Buy now! No sell soon!
Those A hole so and so's. Dam market. Dam Dams. Dam a lam a ding dongs!
  • #36,858
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:20pm Oct 22, 2007 1:20pm
scrat, nice to se you back. Are you as long the USDJPY as I am? Also had a beautiful entry on GJ this morning, check your H4 charts!

So, does anyone have the foggiest clue who was buying dollar all night
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #36,859
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:27pm Oct 22, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting Scrat
agree. easy to trade&predict when it's not your money at stake.

gotta start somewhere
  • #36,860
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:29pm Oct 22, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting SunTrader
Because they are buying the fact and selling the rumour of "rising seas". I live on a coastline. I see beach erosion and nothing else. So far. Plenty of storms but everything gets rebuilt. When the day comes and buidling are disappearing will be the day to worry. Like 2099 maybe.

Send us some of those rising seas....

Atlanta G.A is down to 90 days of water left and Raleigh N.C. is reported to have only 61 days of water left. The south is in the biggest drought ever seen. (or so they say)

And were on the Atlantic ocean.

rising seas, global warming, reverse warming....these guys cann't make up there minds.

If we were technologically advanced when the continents drifted apart thousands of years ago, the government would have us convinced we did it with pollution, hair spray cans and cutting down trees.
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