GBP/USD Trade Opportunities

LOL, I am saying that the sell order on this demo screen (you must've seen it, come on) is reasoned based on the pound taking a beating after deviating out of several tunnels..etc. The price action indicates it should fall. Now the daily bar has closed and we have a pretty powerful bearish pinbar on daily as well - the only thing hurting the trade is really the USD falling once more against the Yen.

Good luck.

What I've always found fascinating is that it seems the turtle traders actually used the reaching of Donchian Channel tunnel extremes to ENTER, whereas people seem to prefer using Bollinger Bands to figure out reversals instead...(both end up being in the same places pretty much is my point)


Just really find it funny people seem to go for that tunnel stuff...if things trend, there is neither an "extreme" nor such a thing as oversold or overbought, so using boundary logic in those cases will just be a waste.

If things range, using a trendline or s/r line will do just as good as any indicator wrapper...and so forth..


Just seems to be as helpful as tossing a coin most of the time, these wrappers..

If things trend, it can be useful to use naive statistics to judge when deviations from that trend will finish. If things range, and unless the range is perfectly sideways, again statistical means of understanding the price position can prove much more useful than "trendlines" which depend on human beings agreeing on how they draw stuff on a charting screen.

These tunnels work quite fabulously if you know how to use them, because they treat the data as random events. It takes a while to be able to get past their pitfalls (concept drift, changing sentiment).But combine them with price action and basic understanding of market sentiment - which are already enough on their own - and you can make quite a few pips every week.

Pluto, just for clarification. Seriously.

Are you calling for
~2.0375
OR
~2.0265

Personally, I am looking for 2.059?. but that is not to say it won't touch you before me.

good luck and grabem where you can.

I guess I just don't like the idea of telling the trend when to end / pull back / trading the pull back instead of the re-entry




I guess it's like always then - a question of enough familiarity with them and practice, practice, practice

Let's see what cable has in store for us today...(head keeps saying higher, bars keep saying lower...hmpf)

Heres something to think about.

Devils advocate....

I don't like telling the market to continue a trend. I don't like picking the end of a correction and trying to re-enter.

Weather your picking the end of a trend, and trading the other direction, or picking the end of a correction for re-entry in trends direction, your still picking something. Tops and bottoms. Top of a trend/top of a correction. Bottom of a trend/bottom of a correction.

If the trend is up, and there is a correction, and you trade the break out of this correction, your picking the end of that correction, even on a break out trade.

No matter how you slice it, we're trying to predict the future. And a trend on one time frame can be a correction on a higher time frame.

Keep your mind open to all possibility's and the rest cake. And I do love cake!

Dave

Nevermind. Realized reply would break back down to different perspectives and the same phenomenon I've observed from most of my time in forums would just repeat(View X versus view Y versus view Z).

We all have individual approaches and they all stand in contrast to each other. If we didn't believe in our own, we wouldn't be able to trade it.

Arguing it(anything really) in any way in turn has not much sense("picking tops and bottoms/scalping/x y or z is bad!" - "but that's how I trade?!!?!" etc ;p), since everyone is right - because it works for them. (the old "many ways to skin a cat" thing - ironically enough this isn't just restricted to FX. People will say only internet browser X is really cool. Or only this and that operating system really REALLY works. Or this and that car. And so on. Only matters which one works best for YOU)

The only "judgement" there is for a point or not is whether you can "get away" with what you're doing(read: only the market is really our final judge), not whether you get the most people on a forum to nod and say "mhm that sounds logical".

(this applies to myself and what I write, too, obviously)

I guess that means in consequence we should all rather sharpen our trading skills than our discussion skills ;p

P.S. I still do not get the point you tried to make. One way or another, somehow, at some point in time, either the buy or sell button needs to be pressed, and for a reason. If I am not allowed to pick anything due to needing to keeping my mind open for the market to move anywhere, anytime, what enables me to trade then?
Personally I make a list of scenarios, pick the likely one, try to trade it(using a setup/reason to enter) and if it changes, shift. That's about it.

Not really sure any more, B. Terrible action on the charts right now, very rare pin bar followed by counter-intuitive solid bar on the daily. I guess this means more weakness for the dollar in the short term, the market wasn't ready to fall to my target levels. I'm out of this pair, look for GBPCHF for nicer opportunities.