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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,341
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:32am Sep 6, 2007 1:32am
OOPS forgot the chart!
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  • #13,342
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:39am Sep 6, 2007 1:39am
Hi Wolf, looks like we are seeing the same things.

After yesterday's action I was thinking the high was already in at 235.50, which the bulls have attempted to break for the past two weeks. But now I am back to thinking the 238 region will print although the resistance is strong. In the mean time, I think scalping is the way to go until a clear direction is set.


Quoting Wolf.
Thanks for your reply Zoran.


The declining 4H trend line is being tested again so maybe it will break it this time and move up to 238.80 (pesonally I hope you are right would suit my system). If it does move up I see 234.80 as a strong resistance on my chart

Also see how the price moved up this morning and touched the rising trend line from 17th August (I love trend lines) a nice short scalp.

I am long again now with an initial target around 234.80.

We are in an expanding triangle and I think price may follow this T/L at least up to that level.

We have a confluence around there, the 234.85 resistance, the rising weekly T/L and the 50% of the major move down (GJ seems to like the 50%)

Just my very novice take on things.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #13,343
  • Sep 6, 2007 1:52am Sep 6, 2007 1:52am
Price is stalling around the declining T/L so may decend to the lower T/L, time will tell.

You are definatley correct about scalping being the way to go, with this weeks news ranging was on the cards from the start.

Besides a couple of nice moves thats what we got, price has basically ranged since the 29th August.

Price moving up again
  • #13,344
  • Sep 7, 2007 1:04am Sep 7, 2007 1:04am
Trend lines are just awesome I have longed from this lower 1hr trend line 232 for the 5th time all profitable. When this one broke below I thought it may be a loser, but it looks like the 1h candle is about to close above it so with luck will turn into another good buy.

Not going to push my luck though just moved my stop to b/e +1.

Candle has now closed above so it looks promising.
  • #13,345
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:47am Sep 7, 2007 8:47am
MAs and Envelopes a pretty good too for trading a strong move like today....4 hits on the lower envelope and 3 retraces to the 34 EMA (agua) for an add on trade - at the 10:36 hit, the snake was still falling, showing a strong move that only got back to the yellow MA.

The Bullish Divergence on the Snake - 09:13 & 11:03 was followed firstly by an hour of sideways consolidation and later by what could be the start of a retrace......either way my pips are in the bank and its Poets day, so I´m off to the pub.....a good weekend to all
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,346
  • Sep 9, 2007 3:07am Sep 9, 2007 3:07am
Here´s a longer term chart.....the next Lucas Time Line (47 days) is shown also this is the 161 LTL off the low...the following one is a further 14 days out on Sept 25th.

Off the Weekly Chart, the 50% fibo support is around 216.00 and the 61.8% around 207.50

First price must break support at the weekly lows around 219 / 220 - i.e the W3 low.

A failure to make new lows under the W3 low will tell us that this wave count in not correct and that some form of ABC correction is in progress.

Either way, this coming week promises to be interesting!
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,347
  • Sep 9, 2007 3:57am Sep 9, 2007 3:57am
Quoting Islander
Here´s a longer term chart.....the next Lucas Time Line (47 days) is shown also this is the 161 LTL off the low...the following one is a further 14 days out on Sept 25th.

Off the Weekly Chart, the 50% fibo support is around 216.00 and the 61.8% around 207.50

First price must break support at the weekly lows around 219 / 220 - i.e the W3 low.

A failure to make new lows under the W3 low will tell us that this wave count in not correct and that some form of ABC correction is in progress.

Either way, this coming week promises to be interesting!
you lol gj no can down to 207.50
Forex Trading ---> https://t.me/fxdarius
  • #13,348
  • Sep 9, 2007 2:05pm Sep 9, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting pips_boy
you lol gj no can down to 207.50
Why?
  • #13,349
  • Sep 9, 2007 11:13pm Sep 9, 2007 11:13pm
Quoting pips_boy
you lol gj no can down to 207.50
Why not?

Here´s the current monthly chart, with the fibbos of the last rally.

That rally started from the 148.00 area!! The 38.6% is at 211.50 and the 50% at 119.24, so the Wave 5 targets that I mentioned are certainly possible, whether they are probable without some further bad news causing more unwinding of the carry trades, is a different matter.

As ever, the market will go where the Big Dogs want it to and we can only do our best to stay on board for the ride. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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  • #13,350
  • Sep 10, 2007 3:59am Sep 10, 2007 3:59am
The gap from the opening of the Asian session has now been filled and and buying after the London Open has pushed GJ thru its Daily Pivot at 230.45 and on towards M3 (231.37) and the 61.8% fibbo from Fridays fall.

Cable made it back to its Friday High of 2.0323 and UJ has broken above its M2 and is headed for its Daily Pivot at 114.05, but has now pulled back to its 34 EMA.

Im looking to take another Short, but will wait till nearer the US open to see if there is another bounce off the 34 EMA (Agua) or if the lower high 3 candles ago and the falling Snake are going to be confirmed as the sell.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,351
  • Sep 10, 2007 7:04am Sep 10, 2007 7:04am
It had a run up to the 61.8% / M3 resistance that I mentioned earlier and could have been a sell off my 1 min chart, but I held off as the Euro had made new highs for today and Cable looked as it might follow.

I finally Sold as it broke the 231 level as Cable pulled back, stop now entry +10

UJ stopped its run a couple of pips under its pivot and that was also worrying.

As soon as 230.60 trades, I´ll lock in 10 pips and then see how the trade develops
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,352
  • Edited 8:21am Sep 10, 2007 7:48am | Edited 8:21am
Took partials as it touched the 230 level for a cool 100 pips less the spread - it looks as if UJ is trying to bounce, so pips better in my bank http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Edit: stalled around the 61.8% support fibbo from todays rally. Stop locks in 100 and I´ll take profit at the 229 level if it gets there today
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,353
  • Sep 10, 2007 8:46am Sep 10, 2007 8:46am
LOL the 61.8% fibbo held the rally and almost another 61.8 has held the fall.

A total drop of 190 pips and I got stopped out on the second part of my trade for another 100 pips....guess this was the European Traders closing out for the day.

I´ve still got one position open with a stop above the pivot, and the 200EMA and target at the 229 level for now.....otherwise, that´s me finished until tomorrow before the Frankfurt Open.
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  • #13,354
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:02am Sep 10, 2007 11:02am
OK, so the 5 min 200EMA held and now cable´s back to its 2.0270 support....IF that breaks I expect the 229 level to be visited sooner rather than later....meanwhile, its supper time here....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,355
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:46pm Sep 10, 2007 11:46pm
Good morning - so the support held and there was a slow climb back up to 230.84 high established earlier yesterday afternoon - but with a lower momentum high on the snake, followed by a lower high 45 minutes later.

Either signal was a Sell, but as I was late getting up, I Sold at 230.44 after the second signal.

As always, the action of Cable is crucial to a continued move and I´m not certain that Cable has not just had a fake-out spike lower, causing the doji on GJ at the pivot (230.2)

I´ll watch and keep a tight stop and lock in profit as soon as the pivot is hit again.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,356
  • Edited 1:30am Sep 11, 2007 12:09am | Edited 1:30am
Better than I thought, the Frankfurters decided to sell! 40 pips now locked in and the overnight lows in the 229.86 area broken, now M2 (229.60) also a low at 11:05 yesterday must break to open the way for a continuation down.

If M2 holds, we´ll be back to ranging.

Lets see what the Brits do.

Edit: Stopped out for +40

Edit: I should have said Partials Stopped Out.....other shorts still open....I´m a bit slow this morning!

Edit: Remainder stopped out for +5, now flat....that was UJ pull GJ up
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,357
  • Edited 1:46am Sep 11, 2007 1:02am | Edited 1:46am
Good Morning,

You had a good entry Islander, I too got up late and have a slightly thick head this morning (self inflicted lol), normally I have my Pc turned on around 0645 UK time so I too missed a couple of good selling opportunities.

Sold at the break of the trend line and daily pivot at 229.95 (see chart)

Daily pivot at 230.05 on my chart (not shown).

Still in but may turn on me as it bounced up at L3.

Edit: Price has just rebounded off the trend line so I have tightend my stop, lets see were it goes.

Edit: Closed before it hit my stop at -45 (maybe I shouldn't trade with a thick head)
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  • #13,358
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:19am Sep 11, 2007 1:19am
Quoting Wolf.
Good Morning,

You had a good entry Islander, I too got up late and have a slightly thick head this morning (self inflicted lol), normally I have my Pc turned on around 0645 UK time so I too missed a couple of good selling opportunities.

Sold at the break of the trend line and daily pivot at 229.95 (see chart)

Daily pivot at 230.05 on my chart (not shown).

Still in but may turn on me as it bounced up at L3.

Edit: Price has just rebounded off the trend line so I have tightend my stop, lets see were it goes.
LOL...."thick head"....sounds familiar!

Now price is in a narrow range between the last mini low off M2 at 229.60 and the Daily Pivot at 230.22. UJ, Cable and GJ are under their 5 min 200EMAs, so I´m holding my remaining shorts for now. UK Trade BAlance due at 4:30 EDT - 10 mins....lets see if that brings any life to the market
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,359
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:22am Sep 11, 2007 1:22am
Attached 4 HR chart ...Opinions welcome.

If price manages to break the 229.50 level I see 228.20 as an easy target, below that the centre of the 4 hr channel.

If price breaks north a retest of 231 and if that is broken the upper 4hr declining trend line would be my next target around 232.

Just my novice view.
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  • #13,360
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:35am Sep 11, 2007 1:35am
UK Trade Balance -7.1BN vs expected -6.4BN. Cable spiked down 18 pips, but will it make new lows? UJ now above its 200EMA, so a 2 way battle in GJ....I´ll wait for the dust to settle
Trading Levels with WRBs
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