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  • #127,741
  • May 15, 2026 2:59am May 15, 2026 2:59am
1614 area may exhaust bears.. I don't have a dog in the race. 1677/84 area can attract. I don't have a current signal telling me to long. But the 1677-84 area may be a better short with a short signal later.
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  • #127,742
  • May 15, 2026 3:18am May 15, 2026 3:18am
I didn't have an over sold signal. But the adr is about 63 pips. today's move near 70 from pp. Today's move so far is 55 pips. Not even a average move. At pp its 70, that would be above the 63 average, if the current low held. That may help it stop rising, if a short is found there in the 1677/84 area.
The weekly average was at 1634
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  • #127,743
  • May 15, 2026 4:26am May 15, 2026 4:26am
Quoting gatorinla
1614 area may exhaust bears.. I don't have a dog in the race. 1677/84 area can attract. I don't have a current signal telling me to long. But the 1677-84 area may be a better short with a short signal later. {image}
It has since bounced and tested the area around 1650. 1670 is still a big number. We have a single day close below it. 1744 etc. Most of my ea trades focus on smaller time frames. That's why I let the ea do the work. But its hard to unsee, what's one sees on the larger ones. On the larger ones pa can run to 1795 to close today. I don't see it atm. But its there. If that happens. Its for a reason. As long as pa behaves here below 1670 we may get a down trend working. But its summer range time. It can reverse.. its in the shadow of big numbers
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  • #127,744
  • Edited 10:02am May 15, 2026 9:49am | Edited 10:02am
The AUD has been top of the board for about 6 weeks.. its now Number 2, the usd #1 .. The GBP last, eur next to the gbp near last.
This is more a likely trend indication that can last weeks and maybe more. I got another enhanced that may give a better edge. While the usd is high on this list. I will be looking to sell the GBP/USD Eur/USD. Just watching retraces get exhausted to enter mostly, or any other method that may work. The usd was the stepchild or near the low for those 6 weeks. It crossed over this week
Those daily fibs may be entries or LC's. The past few days the eur has been unable to meet those attractors. I don't know if they will gap down.. If pa runs up Monday, we may get a higher short. The usd is bullish to me until further notice. the gbp bearish. Waiting for retraces seems best,
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  • #127,745
  • May 15, 2026 1:33pm May 15, 2026 1:33pm
Looks like we wil get a bearish close
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,746
  • May 15, 2026 7:33pm May 15, 2026 7:33pm
Quoting johncen
Looks like we wil get a bearish close
yeah.. I will buying usd verse those lower currencies Aud may still be a long against the gbp and euro.
The yen is lower than the yen. USD/JPY may be a long trade too.
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  • #127,747
  • May 16, 2026 1:46am May 16, 2026 1:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. I will buying usd verse those lower currencies Aud may still be a long against the gbp and euro. The yen is lower than the yen. USD/JPY may be a long trade too. {image}
The Swiss bumped the AUD to third place now. The usd 1 and Swiss 2. The AUD 3, Kiwi 4. Oil may finally start having that affect. I would short the kiwi before the Aud. I thought this would had happened over a month ago. I was wrong then. But the fundi's have not changed. Now the AUD and Kiwi are losing steam. The usd is cautiously showing strength. Japan another one relying on oil from the Straight is wounded also. The usd, chf and yen are safe havens. When or if the aud and kiwi get weaker toward the yen. That is a likely signal the economy has slipped. The cad is already likely moving up past the aud and higher. The gbp looks to be in the shitter. The ones strengthening verse the gbp is where I need to be. The aud and kiwi may eventually be even lower on the shit list than the gbp. Of the 2, the kiwi should be worse
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  • #127,748
  • May 16, 2026 2:26am May 16, 2026 2:26am
The AUD and Kiwi may be falling harder. Because Bitcoin may tank. It did close a day below the 20 sma. The usd and chf gained. I will post aj and nj shortly. With bitcoin holding this trajectory this weekend. We may see a drop gap in AJ and the NJ and others. It looking like risk off season may start.
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  • #127,749
  • May 16, 2026 2:55am May 16, 2026 2:55am
If the risk off signs are right.. the drop on the chart looks doable and more. More if it holds out longer. It would take 2 + months to get oil.. probably +++. In that time if no progress is made other than some tweet spikes.. It can drop very hard.
AJ. move caught right gives 2 dynamics.. the commodity risk off, and a safe haven. A 2X speed, but without oil is can be worse. The usd currency is normally a safe haven, it also has oil. If it remains strong verse the yen. That's a bigger fall. The Kiwi likely has even more drop potential
CCI does show monthly bearish divergence.
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  • #127,750
  • May 16, 2026 3:27am May 16, 2026 3:27am
The kiwi has a closer year level at 90.12.. but it would break that if the aud fell.
Any way that risk off if correct would show up on these 2. Bitcoin is pointing these may gap down if nothing changes.
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  • #127,751
  • May 17, 2026 6:58pm May 17, 2026 6:58pm
Of all the usd major crosses. They have a 7% chance historically of hitting the DPP today. If the trend in the posted box points away from the DPP. If the direction point toward the DPP. Its has above a 90% shot of reaching DPP
It looks like the GBP verse the usd has room the drop. The chf also looks stronger.. Risk off behavior. But oil may also give added favor to the usd.
My strategy is to sell gu on a bounce.
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  • #127,752
  • May 17, 2026 7:18pm May 17, 2026 7:18pm
Possible GBP short 1.333x.. But it may not bounce that high
It may resist the 20sma too. Its dynamically falling each hour. All signs point very bearish to me. It may be unable to rise.
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  • #127,753
  • May 17, 2026 11:02pm May 17, 2026 11:02pm
in a area to look.
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  • #127,754
  • May 17, 2026 11:21pm May 17, 2026 11:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
in a area to look. {image}
My ea will fire on a short signal. I'm just watching for it,.
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  • #127,755
  • May 17, 2026 11:33pm May 17, 2026 11:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My ea will fire on a short signal. I'm just watching for it,. {image}
I trade 28 pairs. My ea looks for overextended exhaustion. It will leave good trades on the table. It is not taking the short until 20 pips above dpp, and overbought.
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  • #127,756
  • May 18, 2026 1:55am May 18, 2026 1:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I trade 28 pairs. My ea looks for overextended exhaustion. It will leave good trades on the table. It is not taking the short until 20 pips above dpp, and overbought.
I have no sell gbp trigger yet. The usd moved down below the chf. The GBP swapped 1 notch up.
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  • #127,757
  • May 18, 2026 7:02am May 18, 2026 7:02am
in now.
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  • #127,758
  • May 18, 2026 7:59am May 18, 2026 7:59am
Quoting gatorinla
in now. {image}
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Done until ea wakes again
Ea scalps either direction. That indicator is more for longer time trades. More for a trend
Test mode atm.
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  • #127,759
  • May 18, 2026 3:16pm May 18, 2026 3:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
In August 2016 the last above average El Nino. I got 20 inches of rain (2 day). Iran has had unusually high rainfall this year already. In 2016 Iran had well above average rain (the same year.) " Widespread Increase: Many regions of Iran experienced a notable increase in precipitation in 2016. Significant Regional Surpluses: Some areas experienced substantially higher than average rainfall, with certain regions receiving over 30% to over 50% above the long-term mean. Heavy Early Year Rains: The beginning of 2016 (early water year) was exceptionally...
More official now. But trajectory. Remember Iran had its reservoirs filled, after over a decade+ drought.
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  • #127,760
  • May 18, 2026 6:35pm May 18, 2026 6:35pm
ea took a few scalps.
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