DXY_H1. My current range.
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Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #874,464
- Edited 6:05am May 7, 2026 5:12am | Edited 6:05am
- Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Re█████ | 2,868 Posts
1. Trump announces something
2. Nothing happens
3. Trump cancels the announcement
4. Trump announces progress in negotiations
5. Oil temporarily drop by $10-15 amid expectations < [we're here]
6. Deal fails at the last moment
7. Trump threatens to bomb Iran again
8. Oil returns to its previous levels
9. See point 1 
Axios reports progress in negotiations that should lead to a deal. Key points include:
- one-page memo: The US and Iran are close to signing a one-page memorandum intended to end the war
- framework agreement declaring the end of the war, followed by 30 days of negotiations focused on the Iranian nuclear program
- 14-point plan: Iran must accept a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The US agrees to lift sanctions and unfreeze billions in assets. Both sides commit to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
- moratorium duration: Iran is ready for a 5 year moratorium; the US demands 20 years. Sources suggest a compromise of 12-15 years. Post-moratorium, Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67%
- The US wants to export enriched uranium from Iran. They also demand Iran cease operations at underground storage sites and allow expanded UN inspections
- There is no mention of disarming Hezbollah/proxies or limiting Iran's missile program (suggesting these demands may have been dropped).
- The US expects a response from Iran within 48 hours (by Friday morning)
- Sources claim the parties have never been closer to a deal. However, the WH sees a lack of consensus within Iranian leadership (IRGC vs. moderates) as a hurdle. Some US officials remain skeptical of even the memorandum being signed
2. Nothing happens
3. Trump cancels the announcement
4. Trump announces progress in negotiations
5. Oil temporarily drop by $10-15 amid expectations < [we're here]
6. Deal fails at the last moment
7. Trump threatens to bomb Iran again
8. Oil returns to its previous levels
9. See point 1
Axios reports progress in negotiations that should lead to a deal. Key points include:
- one-page memo: The US and Iran are close to signing a one-page memorandum intended to end the war
- framework agreement declaring the end of the war, followed by 30 days of negotiations focused on the Iranian nuclear program
- 14-point plan: Iran must accept a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The US agrees to lift sanctions and unfreeze billions in assets. Both sides commit to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
- moratorium duration: Iran is ready for a 5 year moratorium; the US demands 20 years. Sources suggest a compromise of 12-15 years. Post-moratorium, Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67%
- The US wants to export enriched uranium from Iran. They also demand Iran cease operations at underground storage sites and allow expanded UN inspections
- There is no mention of disarming Hezbollah/proxies or limiting Iran's missile program (suggesting these demands may have been dropped).
- The US expects a response from Iran within 48 hours (by Friday morning)
- Sources claim the parties have never been closer to a deal. However, the WH sees a lack of consensus within Iranian leadership (IRGC vs. moderates) as a hurdle. Some US officials remain skeptical of even the memorandum being signed
Air force
- #874,467
- May 7, 2026 9:01am May 7, 2026 9:01am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,363 Posts
Trade to trade another day
- #874,468
- May 7, 2026 10:21am May 7, 2026 10:21am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,363 Posts
Trade to trade another day
- #874,473
- Edited 3:13pm May 7, 2026 2:37pm | Edited 3:13pm
- Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Re█████ | 2,868 Posts
- current monthly low @ yearly mid range; near the Apr POC - technically untested
- 3 surges above monthly open, but all 5 days closed below it (-0.4%)
How much sense does it have in this shit_on_the_fan environment?
(+ Japan has the right for 1 more intervention round (3 per 6 months))
Bears need to make a new low, preferably tomorrow
Air force
- #874,475
- May 7, 2026 9:44pm May 7, 2026 9:44pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 3,976 Posts
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
- #874,476
- May 7, 2026 11:04pm May 7, 2026 11:04pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 11,276 Posts | Online Now
US attacked Iranian tanker in Hormuz, Iranian retaliated with missiles: State media Iran’s IRIB broadcaster, citing a military official, says Iran’s military fired missiles at “enemy units” following what the official described as a US attack on an Iranian tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The official said the “enemy units” sustained damage and left the area.
. And today is NFP. I'll probably just stay away.
- #874,478
- May 7, 2026 11:20pm May 7, 2026 11:20pm
- Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Trader | 2,162 Posts
{quote} It's shameful what the US and Iran are doing. Every day they tell us they have an agreement make money from the market and then the next day they tell us they are firing against each other. It's difficult to make gains except if you are quick since we only get spikes. I had a short bias all this time, but after the rise I changed my mind. Maybe I'll change my mind again
.
- #874,479
- May 8, 2026 12:46am May 8, 2026 12:46am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 11,276 Posts | Online Now
{quote} I went with smaller lot sizes, so was able to hold my long positions, I just hope we're not going into another weekend without a deal. On the funnier side, when Trump was asked if the US attack on the three Iranian sites mean the ceasefire is over? he answered, no that was just a "love tap"
