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Only EURUSD

  • #19,481
  • Mar 26, 2026 5:55am Mar 26, 2026 5:55am
Things are moving fast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,482
  • Mar 26, 2026 6:01am Mar 26, 2026 6:01am
Quoting Ahmedskaf
Things are moving fast. {image}
Indeed They Are.
  • #19,483
  • Mar 26, 2026 8:46am Mar 26, 2026 8:46am
Hourly chart update.
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,484
  • Mar 26, 2026 11:13am Mar 26, 2026 11:13am
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Is it rising in a channel or forming a bear flag?

Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #19,485
  • Edited 12:13pm Mar 26, 2026 11:38am | Edited 12:13pm
EURUSD H1

1.1530 = CHOCH UP from the past

Hold → continuation higher
Break lower The CHOCH level flips into an S/R after the break.


Before: 1.1530 = the origin of the CHOCH
Now: 1.1530 = the level deciding if it was valid

Critical Point
Above 1.1570 → BOS UP → trend continues
Below 1.1530 → CHOCH DOWN → weakness
In between → chop / consolidation

Vacuum: There is no strong historical support between 1.1450 and 1.1400 on chart. It is a "freefall zone."
If DXY (Dollar) truly breaks the upper boundary of its channel and moves above 100.50, we will see Euro below 1.14 very quickly.

PIC2 - DXY H4
My opinion: As long as DXY (Dollar) is heading higher along that orange dashed line on pic2, the Euro has no reason for a sustained rise.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.jpg Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy2.jpg Size: 24 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,486
  • Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm
The D1 candle must not close below the 1.15350 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-03-26_22-22-54_3023b.png Size: 44 KB
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,487
  • Mar 26, 2026 12:29pm Mar 26, 2026 12:29pm
Quoting Ahmedskaf
So far, the H4 timeframe is respecting the support level at 1.15550. No candle has closed below this support level yet. If the H4 candle closes below the 1.15550 support level, we will visit the 1.15350 level. {image}
On the H4 timeframe, sellers managed to close below the 1.15550 level. This reinforced the downward momentum.
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,488
  • Mar 26, 2026 12:37pm Mar 26, 2026 12:37pm
EURUSD/DXY H1
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Click to Enlarge Name: 11.jpg Size: 38 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,489
  • Mar 26, 2026 1:16pm Mar 26, 2026 1:16pm
Quoting Ahmedskaf
I smell a tweet.
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,490
  • Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm
Quoting Ahmedskaf
The D1 candle must not close below the 1.15350 level. {image}
I'm watching the candle close.
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,491
  • Edited 2:02pm Mar 26, 2026 1:38pm | Edited 2:02pm
eurusd h1

Mr. Trump showed us that the 1.1556 level is more important than 1.1530, as 1.1556 correlates with the DXY CHOCH UP at the 99.40 level.

By being below 1.1556, the Euro has officially "moved out" of the bullish zone.
When price returns to 1.1556 and fails to close above it, it confirms an S/R Flip (support turning into resistance).
The path to the green line at 1.1488 is now the path of least resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dd.jpg Size: 43 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,492
  • Mar 26, 2026 2:21pm Mar 26, 2026 2:21pm
Quoting josip
eurusd h1 Mr. Trump showed us that the 1.1556 level is more important than 1.1530, as 1.1556 correlates with the DXY CHOCH UP at the 99.40 level. By being below 1.1556, the Euro has officially "moved out" of the bullish zone. When price returns to 1.1556 and fails to close above it, it confirms an S/R Flip (support turning into resistance). The path to the green line at 1.1488 is now the path of least resistance. {image}
agreed and the outlook is now bearish. Correction may be over now and we could see a new low next week
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,493
  • Mar 26, 2026 2:25pm Mar 26, 2026 2:25pm
Quoting Ahmedskaf
The D1 candle must not close below the 1.15350 level. {image}
It closed below the 1.15350 level, let's see
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,494
  • Edited 9:23pm Mar 26, 2026 8:31pm | Edited 9:23pm
The 3 PM spike to high of day (NY Session)ran smack into the order block above and reversed immediately giving back 50% of the move. If you fight against all those newly trapped Longs from an hour before the NY close, GOOD LUCK. Also, the HIGHER TIME FRAME DAILY just this week has fallen back below the 200 DMA which is highly respected by Institutional traders, Banks, etc.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,495
  • Mar 26, 2026 9:38pm Mar 26, 2026 9:38pm
The EUR/USD found support at the 1.1518 low and rose to 1.1559 before retracing. It is currently trading near the Asian high, looking for further upside, a break above the 1.1559 resistance could target the 1.1572 high and the 1.1600 psychological level. On the other hand, a break below the 1.1518 low could lead the price toward the 1.1500-1.1484 support zone


Daily volatility (range) 72 pips

Significant news - US University Michigan Sentiment


Have great day!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2026-03-27_06-35-03.png Size: 51 KB
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,496
  • Edited 11:09pm Mar 26, 2026 10:44pm | Edited 11:09pm
So, Trump has slowed down the fall after all...

Stronger Zone: 1.1538 – 1.1543 (the two white lines)
Why: This zone has:

  1. More touches (history)
  2. S/R flip (support ➝ resistance)
  3. Proximity to the major 1.1530 level

Therefore: Higher order flow + more weight

1.1556 vs. Zone
1.1556:

  1. Only 1 reaction (LH)
  2. Acts more as:

    1. Trigger level
    2. Momentum level


    1.1538 – 1.1543:

  3. More reactions
  4. Consolidation
  5. Flip zone Real barrier

Critical Point
1.1538 – 1.1543 → Strong zone
1.1556 → Weaker, but a trigger

Scenario 1 – Aggressive (Early Entry for buy)

  1. Break above the zone
  2. Retest
  3. Entry Higher risk, better RR

Scenario 2 – Conservative (Safer)

  1. Break above the zone
  2. Subsequent break of 1.1556
  3. Entry / Retest Lower risk of a fakeout

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.jpg Size: 32 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,497
  • Mar 26, 2026 10:55pm Mar 26, 2026 10:55pm
pretty much remain range trading between the high and low.
Need pa to below 1.1485 to consider sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,498
  • Mar 26, 2026 10:56pm Mar 26, 2026 10:56pm
DXY

  1. We are in a descending channel
  2. Bullish breakout failed

Now: Rejection at the upper boundary
This is: Bearish signal for DXY
Correlation:

  1. DXY ↓ = EURUSD ↑
  2. DXY ↑ = EURUSD ↓

But WATCH 99.40

  1. We are above 99.40
  2. This is: S/R level (support for DXY)

What it means together: Bearish signal:

  1. Failed channel breakout
  2. Rejection at the top

But:

  1. We are holding above 99.40

Therefore: DXY is in conflict / range

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy2.jpg Size: 25 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,499
  • Mar 26, 2026 11:06pm Mar 26, 2026 11:06pm
Quoting josip
DXY We are in a descending channel Bullish breakout failed Now: Rejection at the upper boundary This is: Bearish signal for DXY Correlation: DXY ↓ = EURUSD ↑ DXY ↑ = EURUSD ↓ But WATCH 99.40 We are above 99.40 This is: S/R level (support for DXY) What it means together: Bearish signal: Failed channel breakout Rejection at the top But: We are holding above 99.40 Therefore:...
yes your right, I was also observing this
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #19,500
  • Mar 26, 2026 11:18pm Mar 26, 2026 11:18pm
Quoting josip
DXY We are in a descending channel Bullish breakout failed Now: Rejection at the upper boundary This is: Bearish signal for DXY Correlation: DXY ↓ = EURUSD ↑ DXY ↑ = EURUSD ↓ But WATCH 99.40 We are above 99.40 This is: S/R level (support for DXY) What it means together: Bearish signal: Failed channel breakout Rejection at the top But: We are holding above 99.40 Therefore:...
no clear direction so it is best to wait.
i have been staying sideline most of the week waiting
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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