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  • #19,361
  • Mar 15, 2026 9:35pm Mar 15, 2026 9:35pm
Quoting Luxyus
{quote} {quote} from here it doesn't look so far anymore
certainly~ we are getting there
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,362
  • Edited 11:11pm Mar 15, 2026 10:54pm | Edited 11:11pm
All I see is more trapped bulls since the open with a long period trading right around 1.14500 which was rebalancing IMHO. Sideway motion is still sketchy I will be looking for a failure or breakthrough (1.14500) unless price just collapses when London opens. Whatever happens, happens, follow the money only when the trend is obvious. We are in the contraction phase with no clear direction unless scalping the short range momentum and its getting more "flatish".. if price breaks below 1.14200 and retest fails it may drop like a rock. No matter what time frame you look at the market WILL ALWAYS end up going the direction of the longer term "round trip" players like Central Banks which wind and unwind positions over a period of weeks or month.
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  • #19,363
  • Mar 16, 2026 8:29am Mar 16, 2026 8:29am
EURUSD on resistance waiting for Trump's news conference today at 30 min. Volatility is ready to hit so waiting on the sidelines on this!

One god only knows what he is going to say!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,364
  • Mar 16, 2026 9:32pm Mar 16, 2026 9:32pm
The EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1500 after encountering resistance at 1.1525, close to the 1.1530 level.

A decline is anticipated, likely targeting the 1.1410 low, with mid-range support situated at 1.1468. On the other hand, buyers must clear the 1.1530 mark to open the path toward the 1.1570/84 resistance zone.

Daily volatility (range) 60 pips

Significant news - German ZEW sentiment

Have great day!

1H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,365
  • Mar 16, 2026 11:30pm Mar 16, 2026 11:30pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1500 after encountering resistance at 1.1525, close to the 1.1530 level. A decline is anticipated, likely targeting the 1.1410 low, with mid-range support situated at 1.1468. On the other hand, buyers must clear the 1.1530 mark to open the path toward the 1.1570/84 resistance zone. Daily volatility (range) 60 pips Significant news - German ZEW sentiment Have great day! 1H {image}
i do have a different view for today after the bullish candle yesterday. If we stay above 1440 i think bull may push higher towards 1530 1570
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,366
  • Mar 17, 2026 12:12am Mar 17, 2026 12:12am
By looking at TF H4 there s clearly a confluence around 1.1550 (daily R1- MA50), nice spot for adding shorts
chaos is just unknown order
  • #19,367
  • Mar 17, 2026 12:40am Mar 17, 2026 12:40am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i do have a different view for today after the bullish candle yesterday. If we stay above 1440 i think bull may push higher towards 1530 1570
I'll reaccess after the Ger zew news. I have the same view but must wait.
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  • #19,368
  • Mar 17, 2026 3:41am Mar 17, 2026 3:41am
ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said: “The ZEW Indicator has collapsed. The escalation in the Middle East spikes energy prices and increases inflationary pressure. This heightens the risk for the German economy that the emerging trend of economic recovery will slow down. How strong these effects will turn out depends on the intensity and the duration of the conflict. The financial market experts are sceptical that a quick resolution of the conflict will take place.

More

EURUSD price stays the same for now but the downtrend may return if price rejects 1.1500.
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  • #19,369
  • Mar 17, 2026 9:11am Mar 17, 2026 9:11am
I see a possible stabilization in eu after the zew but it might be temporary until the FOMC tomorrow where Powell seems holding cutting rates for longer unless I proved wrong. 1.1575/1.1600 should hold any upside move until then with support at 1.1465 holding a drop at 1.1410.
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  • #19,370
  • Edited 11:14am Mar 17, 2026 11:03am | Edited 11:14am
1.15242 Key Support (BOS UP H1): As long as we are above it, the yellow channel remains valid.

If price closes below 1.15242, the yellow channel will start to break down.

This rising wedge is saying: “Be careful, the buying momentum is slowing down.”
The main lifeline is still the blue line at 1.15242. As long as we remain above it, the rising wedge may just be a minor corrective pause.
However, if price breaks out of the wedge and also falls below the blue line, the bounce could come to an end.

Price breaks the upper line of the wedge AND the red dashed line at the same time.
That would signal that bulls have strong momentum and are ignoring the bearish wedge formation.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,371
  • Mar 17, 2026 11:07am Mar 17, 2026 11:07am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said: “The ZEW Indicator has collapsed. The escalation in the Middle East spikes energy prices and increases inflationary pressure. This heightens the risk for the German economy that the emerging trend of economic recovery will slow down. How strong these effects will turn out depends on the intensity and the duration of the conflict. The financial market experts are sceptical that a quick resolution of the conflict will take place. More...
I agree with you
Often, your absence is better than your presence.
  • #19,372
  • Mar 17, 2026 11:39am Mar 17, 2026 11:39am
Quoting Luxyus
By looking at TF H4 there s clearly a confluence around 1.1550 (daily R1- MA50), nice spot for adding shorts
well, job is done for today.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #19,373
  • Mar 17, 2026 12:36pm Mar 17, 2026 12:36pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i do have a different view for today after the bullish candle yesterday. If we stay above 1440 i think bull may push higher towards 1530 1570
we are in resistance zone….
if 1512 1500 holds we may still push above 1570
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,374
  • Mar 17, 2026 8:40pm Mar 17, 2026 8:40pm
Still under resistance level, maybe a breakout soon
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #19,375
  • Mar 17, 2026 9:26pm Mar 17, 2026 9:26pm
The EUR/USD is consolidating at the 1.1530 resistance zone after holding the 1.1500 psychological level. Support at 1.1465 is keeping the upside potential intact for a move beyond 1.1530 toward the next resistance zone at 1.1575/85. Sellers should wait for a break below 1.1500 to test 1.1465, with the ultimate goal being a move toward the 1.1411 low.


Daily volatility (range) 60 pips

Significant news - US PPI, US Factory Orders & US Interest Rate Decision


Have great day!
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,376
  • Mar 17, 2026 11:15pm Mar 17, 2026 11:15pm
Quoting josip
1.15242 Key Support (BOS UP H1): As long as we are above it, the yellow channel remains valid. If price closes below 1.15242, the yellow channel will start to break down. This rising wedge is saying: “Be careful, the buying momentum is slowing down.” The main lifeline is still the blue line at 1.15242. As long as we remain above it, the rising wedge may just be a minor corrective pause. However, if price breaks out of the wedge and also falls below the blue line, the bounce could come to an end. Price breaks the upper line of the wedge AND the red...
update
EURUSD H1
The 1.1530–1.15315 level (new blue line) is now a much more precise representation of the current BOS (Break of Structure).

What does this mean for the “Rising Wedge”?
By moving above 1.1530 and holding there, our Rising Wedge has not broken to the downside yet. On the contrary, the market is trying to build pressure toward its upper boundary.

As long as the market holds above 1.1530, all those small concerns like the Rising Wedge or local fluctuations are secondary.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,377
  • Mar 18, 2026 10:34am Mar 18, 2026 10:34am
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Should be good to go (DOWN;-) as the Powell presser should be more on inflation and less on employment.

The PPI is not a factor for US economy. The important number is CPI and that has been falling. The rising costs in freight rates and the shortage of shipping containers is causing shortages but is not showing up in US CPI. PPI only affects US manufactures not US assemblers. Ironically, rate cuts would only increase inflation in US. Most FOMC members know this. So I would not be surprised with a hawkish FOMC presser.

Repositioning right now for more downside in EURUSD. First target in t 1.1310 area. break above 1.1580 will cause me to cover the position. Just taking off some long contracts, not adding to short side. Trading safe. It's a marathon not a sprint.

Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #19,378
  • Edited 12:52pm Mar 18, 2026 12:05pm | Edited 12:52pm
update eurusd h1

Critical Point
1.1530 → resistance (key)
below → continuation down
1.1460 → Main demand
1.1445 → OB invalidation

If we stay above 1.1460 – Main demand
it means:

  1. buyers are still holding the market
  2. the Order Block is working
  3. the bearish move is, for now, just a retracement into the zone

What follows from this
Bullish scenario (valid)
If:

  1. 1.1460 is respected
  2. a higher low forms

expect:

  1. a move back to 1.1500
  2. a test of 1.1530
  3. potentially higher

BUT (important)
Even if 1.1460 holds:
you can still get:
range / accumulation before another drop
Why?

  1. H4 trend is still bearish
  2. we need a break higher, not just support holding

What must happen for a real reversal
Holding 1.1460 alone is not enough
We need:

  1. CHOCH UP (H1)
  2. break of 1.1530
  3. ideally a retest from above

only then we have a valid bullish shift

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #19,379
  • Mar 18, 2026 9:38pm Mar 18, 2026 9:38pm
The EUR/USD broke 1.1500 and reached 1.1450 before recovering some ground from yesterday's fall. The 1.1530/1.1555 resistance zone continues to cap any upside movement, keeping the downtrend intact. A break below 1.1450 will open the way toward the 1.1411/1.1391 critical support zone.


Daily volatility (range) 62 pips

Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims & ECB Interest Rate.


Have great day!

1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19,380
  • Mar 18, 2026 11:19pm Mar 18, 2026 11:19pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD broke 1.1500 and reached 1.1450 before recovering some ground from yesterday's fall. The 1.1530/1.1555 resistance zone continues to cap any upside movement, keeping the downtrend intact. A break below 1.1450 will open the way toward the 1.1411/1.1391 critical support zone. Daily volatility (range) 62 pips Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims & ECB Interest Rate. Have great day! 1H {image}
i dont know where are we going today, bear in control but bull is still trying. I might stay on sideline
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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