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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #869,601
  • Dec 4, 2025 1:56am Dec 4, 2025 1:56am
Quoting Headland
Y/day's dly candle is at least suggestive of more upside, whether or not that be the greater probability. If that is the case, it follows that inside it's body will be a buy the dip market? This was the case @ today's AL/CDL @ pot 1hr rbs. To the upside of CDH, Wkly R2 is @/around 3382, then Dly R1 @/around 3405. 1hr below {image}
It's also where my SL is, which is a magnet for price.
  • #869,602
  • Dec 4, 2025 2:21am Dec 4, 2025 2:21am
...the move up from the recent 3010 lo is the 6th dly upside b/o of Yrly R1 (which is @/around 3197,) this year so far. The midpoint between Yrly R1, and Yrly R2 (which is @/around 3882,) is @/around 3540. Uninteresting fact I know, but it's a slow market, and if the recent upsurge in viewers to this thread are bots, I'm trying to fill them with irrelevant crap!

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #869,603
  • Dec 4, 2025 2:35am Dec 4, 2025 2:35am
Looks like a 11.4% fib retracement might be all we're getting.

It's looking like the bears weren't able to walk to work today after yesterdays railing, and the bulls must be too hung over.
  • #869,604
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:16am Dec 4, 2025 3:16am
Looks like the bulls have finally turned up for work. And when I say bulls, I mean dollar bears because you'd have to be a fucking lunatic to be bullish on the pound.
  • #869,605
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:26am Dec 4, 2025 3:26am
So there goes todays 9th SL so fuck this.
  • #869,606
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:36am Dec 4, 2025 3:36am
Quoting MrFanciful
So there goes todays 9th SL so fuck this.
We had this conversation when you were @ -37k. I read y/day you are now @ -45k. You keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. When will you ever learn? - it is an almost certainty (as you keep proving) that you won't get a different result. Get an Edge, know what you need to know about that edge, optimise risk and trade management to it's stats, and then develop the right personal psychology to actually trade it profitably. You can keep ignoring that advice all you like, but -45k will turn into -50k and so on, if you keep going the way you are.

Also, just basic trading 101 lessons, and notwithstanding the above point. Why do you keep selling a strong uptrend, if presumably that is what you are doing, judging from your last comment/post?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #869,607
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:45am Dec 4, 2025 3:45am
Quoting Headland
{quote} We had this conversation when you were @ -37k. I read y/day you are now @ -45k. You keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. When will you ever learn? - it is an almost certainty 9as you keep proving) that you won't get a different result. Get an Edge, know what you need to know about that edge, optimise risk and trade management to it's stats, and then develop the right personal psychology to trade. You can keep ignoring that advice all you like, but -45k will turn into -50k and so on, if you keep going the way you are....
OK. Everytime I go with a trend, it ranges. How do you know that the trend is going to continue? I'm serious. How do you know that you are currently in an uptrend? You can see that it has been in an uptrend. But right now! Right now, is it in an uptrend? If so, how close to the end are we? Should I go long after such a move as yesterday?

How often after a 175 pip parabolic up move, does it only retrace to the 11.4% fib level and then continue? I'd like probability distributions and as well as the degree of uncertainty.
  • #869,608
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:50am Dec 4, 2025 3:50am
Reasons why the USD is depreciating: because the interbank repo market is showing signs of collapse. because the rates are a disaster and have not improved the trade balance, because it has a country with a runaway deficit, because the states of the world are abandoning American debt and buying gold or yuan as a safe haven because the yen is appreciating and the thrifty Japanese will stop buying American debt, because technologically the weapons of the US have proven to be obsolete, because there are no more soldiers to send to die and because it has a country with brutal social inequalities that is falling apart. Among other things.... here are the reasons...
  • #869,609
  • Dec 4, 2025 3:58am Dec 4, 2025 3:58am
Quoting Headland
{quote} We had this conversation when you were @ -37k. I read y/day you are now @ -45k. You keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. When will you ever learn? - it is an almost certainty (as you keep proving) that you won't get a different result. Get an Edge, know what you need to know about that edge, optimise risk and trade management to it's stats, and then develop the right personal psychology to actually trade it profitably. You can keep ignoring that advice all you like, but -45k will turn into -50k and so on, if you keep...
He's too dependant on direction, and doesn't focus enough on money management, wants to get rich quick, this it what feeds our markets...
  • #869,610
  • Edited 4:09am Dec 4, 2025 3:59am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} He's too dependant on direction, and doesn't focus enough on money management, wants to get rich quick, this it what feeds our markets...
Hi. It's probably a case of 'chasing losses,?' which is usually fatal and perversely, 9 times out of 10 or more, ends up adding to them.


Quoting MrFanciful
{quote} OK. Everytime I go with a trend, it ranges. (1) How do you know that the trend is going to continue? I'm serious. (2) How do you know that you are currently in an uptrend? You can see that it has been in an uptrend. But right now! Right now, is it in an uptrend? If so, (3) how close to the end are we? (4) Should I go long after such a move as yesterday? (5) How often after a 175 pip...
1. You don't, none of us do. But you look at what may act as rbs, and then look for a p/back to one of those areas/zones you have identified, and judge PA (and other stuff if you use it) accordingly.
2. I use 3 candle fractal swing analysis on the t/f's of interest to me, others may use something different like ADX or something. You need this, and methodology, like triple t/f analysis or something.
3. None of us know, all we can do is look at the obstacles to it's continuance. in the case of an uptrend - potential sbr or res, and it's relationship (relevant to the t/f's you are trading) to average ranges.
4. As I intimated earlier re y/day's dly candle - it implied more upside, so see point 1.
5. I have no idea, it's not part of my Edge so I don't need that stat, but getting such stats, and your further point about distributions is one way of identifying an Edge. Also you gotta look at the 'character' of each trend, ie what is the max p/back, and the average p/back, in this one for eg they have been small from the 3179 CWL and up.

Quoting Headland
{quote}... 1. You don't, none of us do. But...
Re the point above. This is how I did it today re 'with trend' entries; Price had found buy the dip demand at the AL/CDL (Pt.1) during my overnight/sleep hours @ a 1hr pot rbs zone and gone on to give a new trend hi at Pt.2. Price pulled back from there (ie met supply in the prev 1hr/4hr/dly sw hi zone = prev res = pot res that extends to 3340, and @ Pt.3 5min bullish hidden div was present, which saw a move to the upside and pulled back without a new trend hi to Pt 4 which is where some more demand was encountered, ie a test of a prev 30min sw lo zone = pot supp created by Pt.3, and this went on to a new trend hi @ Pt 5, again in that prev 1hr/4hr/dly sw hi zone to 3370. This was also entirely consistent with the character of this particular 30min + uptrend.

30min below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #869,611
  • Dec 4, 2025 4:25am Dec 4, 2025 4:25am
if look h4 and h1 target hit,if look daily no.i think need correction.
daily trend heavy red.but mini trend daily green.
i think in some number it turns down,i hope. h4 and h1 green of course.
possibilty ,133740 h1.but maybe it goes down without.
  • #869,612
  • Dec 4, 2025 4:26am Dec 4, 2025 4:26am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. It's probably a case of 'chasing losses,?' which is usually fatal and perversely, 9 times out of 10 or more, ends up adding to them. {quote} 1. You don't, none of us do. But you look at what may act as rbs, and then look for a p/back to one of those areas/zones you have identified, and judge PA (and other stuff if you use it) accordingly. 2. I use 3 candle fractal swing analysis on the t/f's of interest to me, others may use something different like ADX or something. You need this, and methodology, like triple t/f analysis or something....
3. None of us know...It remains a mystery to me why people talk about what they don't know, lose without a break, but refuse any help.
  • #869,613
  • Dec 4, 2025 4:46am Dec 4, 2025 4:46am
Inserted Video


Christmas is coming soon and everything will be wonderful
  • #869,614
  • Dec 4, 2025 5:02am Dec 4, 2025 5:02am
Quoting maxi444
{quote} 3. None of us know...It remains a mystery to me why people talk about what they don't know, lose without a break, but refuse any help.
I think he once said that he would rather take advice from his offshore millionaire guru, dont know how that's working out for him...
  • #869,615
  • Dec 4, 2025 5:32am Dec 4, 2025 5:32am
Quoting vankiepsauff
{quote} add short 1.3350
update : 3 short : 1.3332 ; 1.3350 ; 1.3353
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vankiepsauff@gmail
  • #869,616
  • Dec 4, 2025 6:06am Dec 4, 2025 6:06am
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 1.3345
closed 10p. stupid n ridiculous. even positive news can't help. sign off for this week
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #869,617
  • Dec 4, 2025 6:37am Dec 4, 2025 6:37am
...that 13:30pm gmt U.s data surprised the market and saw some $ buying, but it was instantly used as a buy the dip opportunity for the trend followers, which is what they did - with inviting 5min+ candles to get long there @ the CDL. Price still hasn't made it north of the prev 1hr/4hr/dly sw hi zone = prev res x2 = pot res that extends up to 3370. 2 x fibs @/near it's top.

Some stops below AL tripped doubtless.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #869,618
  • Dec 4, 2025 6:57am Dec 4, 2025 6:57am
...straight into a prev 1hr/minor 4hr sw hi zone = pot res lol,! (from 22nd Oct.) Broke that aforementioed pot res though, - some stops triggered above it maybe?

4hr below (wide view.)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #869,619
  • Dec 4, 2025 7:23am Dec 4, 2025 7:23am
GBPUSD in a solid sell zone.
If it goes up a bit higher ...sell again.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #869,620
  • Dec 4, 2025 8:01am Dec 4, 2025 8:01am
Oh look, it's SuperTaxiMan, here to make his millions with his +5% daily gains on a penny account while driving a run-down taxi.

Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} You're wrong there. I have already made +5% ROI every day for multiple days. But then I did also have losing days that prolonged the cycle to get to the next +5% win. I got reckless and screwed up my progress because of that. I'm not good at it yet. I'm still learning and trying to establish better patience and discipline when determining when and where to enter a trade. What I'm trying to achieve is to get better at opening my trades at the right times so I won't lose as often compared to winning, so then I will be more likely to make +5%...
"... depending on your intelligence"

So intelligent. Not at all a clown show.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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