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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #24,861
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:42pm Aug 15, 2007 4:42pm
Remember that crazy daily post average from that other thread?

Actually their average rose to 484...

Which means that these last days, they were probably doing above 500.

Believe me i don't really care, but i never saw anything like this. That must be the fastest growing thread in the history of international foruns. lool

Now imagine one day... lots of millionaires showing on TV, and a reporter ask them.. "what was your trick?"...

And i redneck guy says... "ah ah i just followed a crazy thread on FF with Five Hundred posts per day. Glup Glup"

That would be mind blowing, and i probably already seen craziest things happen.
  • #24,862
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:53pm Aug 15, 2007 4:53pm
95 percent of all traders fail. It pays to not be part of the mass.
Just Trade It
  • #24,863
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:56pm Aug 15, 2007 4:56pm
http://www.krycek.de/blog/wp-content...nslation-2.jpg

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/145/4...21cfab9383.jpg

Bob: For relaxing times, make it Suntory time!

//

be back later. as i have have some *IMPORTANT* things to do atm.

congrats to all those who profitted today!
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #24,864
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:30pm Aug 15, 2007 5:30pm
right through the support ????9855

DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #24,865
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:41pm Aug 15, 2007 5:41pm
And down we go.......
  • #24,866
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:59pm Aug 15, 2007 5:59pm
bravado
cesarnc
karmostaji

Are we Done with our train, now are we all left that train???

Please direct me to the next train, where can I catch it??
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,867
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:19pm Aug 15, 2007 6:19pm
Oh boy, bravado is gonna be reallllllly pissed off...


Quoting abulsaid
bravado
cesarnc
karmostaji

Are we Done with our train, now are we all left that train???

Please direct me to the next train, where can I catch it??
Watch for GJ breaking 230.84 via UJ breaking 116.25 to jump in first. GJ already 300 pips down. Could go more, but assuming that right now may eat you in 100 pips easily.

I took most of the profits already and have a remaining lot for the joyride as NIkkei tumbles. Gonna watch Chinese open and call it a day.

Another option is waiting for NY tomorrow and trade accordingly. Dow below 13,000 could accelarate another 200 points down. On Dow, I'm looking for a re-test & failure of 13,000 early in the session first. On confirmation, short the crap out of the carry trades.
  • #24,868
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:40pm Aug 15, 2007 6:40pm
dude, could it be safe to target 1.9600. i dont know it seems to me that the push on the pair have been B-cuz of interest rate being raised...right..? now that the boe is could stop raising rates and the dollar too. we are seeing the pairs both heading lower. or could it be that the market is in a state of panic right now. in the 4 years that i had been trading i had never traded such a hard market.

:surprised
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #24,869
  • Aug 15, 2007 8:39pm Aug 15, 2007 8:39pm
Quoting Leugimp
Howabout 80% of small speculators being net long - when these numbers start getting to extremes - all that is necessary is a good catalyst and all these weak longs unwind like crazy. Not saying go against the trend but definitley be careful opening up new long term longs at this level. The trend would still be considered long term up even if we had a retracement to 1.9200.

The last time we had this ratio in COT report was around april 18 and even though the ratio was similar, it was with about 50,000 less reportable positions(non commercial). What followed was a month long unwinding of long positions that brought the pair down 400 pips.

Again - Im not saying to fight the trend but take this as a warning. These extreme numbers are all lining up across the board, the more they inflate, the nastier the collapse will become.
There is some good top bottom support at this level though the appropriate stop level is still a good 500 pips away on gbpusd- will look to become a buyer again at this level to start with wide stop on low leverage - as dailys turn, we can move the stop up below the pivot low and add to position on pullbacks - I like the play on gbpusd and eurusd as we are still above 200 sma on dailys and trend analysis is still strongly pointing upward with RSI in lower relevant ranges for bull market. My friends, this is the retracement we have been patiently waiting for - we have positive reversal in weeklys if we hold above 9300's on close friday - dailys have pulled back to 200 sma with momentum still high for such a quick pullback - not to mention its is august.
Nice buy at these levels.

Just an opinion
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #24,870
  • Aug 15, 2007 8:57pm Aug 15, 2007 8:57pm
Quoting Leugimp
There is some good top bottom support at this level though the appropriate stop level is still a good 500 pips away on gbpusd- will look to become a buyer again at this level to start with wide stop on low leverage - as dailys turn, we can move the stop up below the pivot low and add to position on pullbacks - I like the play on gbpusd and eurusd as we are still above 200 sma on dailys and trend analysis is still strongly pointing upward with RSI in lower relevant ranges for bull market. My friends, this is the retracement we have been patiently waiting for - we have positive reversal in weeklys if we hold above 9300's on close friday - dailys have pulled back to 200 sma with momentum still high for such a quick pullback - not to mention its is august.
Nice buy at these levels.

Just an opinion
IMO
I might be with you, but GU retraced for about 1000 pips down, thsi huge retracement makes us rethink and reevaluate our trends, with a price now of about 98xx (low is 9804) with almost broken 16 months uptrend, i really think we have to analyse in a rationally and a professionally matter. Till this moment i still bullish, I still think that we're gonna see 06++ before the end of the year, but that is what i think, not what the fact is,,,
i'm really disturbed here.
My long term plan has been demolished.
I think the mids of 97 is hard to been broken, but every heavy quote or level has been broken.
so the volatility for the bulls is almost 100%.
I won't forget that only 20% of the FX traders success, so if almost everyone are bearish, so almost everyone makes profit (and this is not reasonable) it doesn't make sense.
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,871
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:29pm Aug 15, 2007 9:29pm
What is going there, are they freely granting $$ seeds or what?
or I guess they are a risk free thread!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.jpg Size: 11 KB
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,872
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:29pm Aug 15, 2007 9:29pm
After watching some cnbc I'm thinking people should just buy $'s because nothing is changing in the market. These bad loans that the world seem to give out to people with below average credit has brought the run away train going to other way to a complete stop. huh, Now the dollar is getting stronger and people are wondering why Berny isn't lowering interest rates. Someone needs to tell Kramer to look at the currecny market to get his answers. call me cazy. Question is how far will it drop. Market people are saying the Dow could get to 11000 meaning we could see low 90's.
  • #24,873
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:34pm Aug 15, 2007 9:34pm
Quoting Alabama
After watching some cnbc I'm thinking people should just buy $'s because nothing is changing in the market. These bad loans that the world seem to give out to people with below average credit has brought the run away train going to other way to a complete stop. huh, Now the dollar is getting stronger and people are wondering why Berny isn't lowering interest rates. Someone needs to tell Kramer to look at the currecny market to get his answers. call me cazy. Question is how far will it drop. Market people are saying the Dow could get to 11000 meaning we could see low 90's.
If bernanke knows there are IR cut, so why not the fed with cooperation from the major financial institutions buy $s and sell some stocks overall the world, because they know that they will have the oppurtunity to sell there $s on september IR cut, and they will have the oppurtunity to buy the stocks again.
They have Information more than others, so they build their own business cycle.
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,874
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:04pm Aug 15, 2007 11:04pm
The H4 RSI stuck in low 20's,, which can be a curving point (north or south).
Atleast we need to catch the daily high (H1 resistant) to turn Bullish on the short-term.
it seems touchable, but right now we're facing m15 & m30 resistance in the range of 50-60.
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,875
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:31pm Aug 15, 2007 11:31pm
GBPUSD

GBPUSD is in down trend. The fall from 2.0652 extended to as low as 1.9834, and further fall towards 1.9700 area is still possible in a couple of days. Near term resistance is at 1.9960, as long as this resistance holds, down trend will continue.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #24,876
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:39pm Aug 15, 2007 11:39pm
Correct me if I am wrong, but this is my meduim term outlook based on FA.
Central banks pumping money into markets will lead to lowering of interest rates. Carry trade unwinding have seen $ buying because it is a safe haven.
My thinking is that the Fed will start to cut rates before the end of the year. The BOE and ECB will not lift rates, but also will not cut rates. The BOJ will not lift rates. As soon as stability returns to the market the buying of carry trades will start again. The $ will weaken because of interest rate difference with EU, UK and emerging markets after interest rate cut and massive carry trade buying will begin because of interest rate difference. Housing in the US will also undermine the $ further. I see the $ strenght as temporary, usually when stocks goes up the currency weakens and vise verse. I think that when stocks settle the next move will begin in currencies.
I know you trade short term on this thread, I just wanted to know what you thought of my FA.
  • #24,877
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:43pm Aug 15, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting Kanon
Correct me if I am wrong, but this is my meduim term outlook based on FA.
Central banks pumping money into markets will lead to lowering of interest rates. Carry trade unwinding have seen $ buying because it is a safe haven.
My thinking is that the Fed will start to cut rates before the end of the year. The BOE and ECB will not lift rates, but also will not cut rates. The BOJ will not lift rates. As soon as stability returns to the market the buying of carry trades will start again. The $ will weaken because of interest rate difference with EU, UK and emerging markets after interest rate cut and massive carry trade buying will begin because of interest rate difference. Housing in the US will also undermine the $ further. I see the $ strenght as temporary, usually when stocks goes up the currency weakens and vise verse. I think that when stocks settle the next move will begin in currencies.
I know you trade short term on this thread, I just wanted to know what you thought of my FA.
For me -personally- it seems a perfect scenario. except that i think ECB and BOE will hike once any time this year!!
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #24,878
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:44pm Aug 15, 2007 11:44pm
Shorts on Cable are loosing momentum no matter what...
.
  • #24,879
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:46pm Aug 15, 2007 11:46pm
look like a lot of the top doggs in this thread took a beating this week, reports or they been loosing pips.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #24,880
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:48pm Aug 15, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting Moe
look like a lot of the top doggs in this thread took a beating this week, reports or they been loosing pips.
Still looking for Soros_Junior! Paging Soros (the GBP will be going to heaven and will NEVER get below 2.0 again)Junior! Where is that guy, in a soup line? Guess what....No Soup For you!
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