Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

S&P 500 Index Reaches New All-Time High


The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set a new all-time high, climbing above the 6,460 mark. The rally in equities is a direct result of yesterday’s CPI report.
According to Forex Factory, the annual CPI remained at 2.7%, whereas analysts had forecast an increase to 2.8%. Moderate inflation readings provide stronger grounds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut — a move President Trump has been strongly advocating.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in a 94% probability of a key rate cut in September, compared to nearly 86% the day before and around 57% a month ago. This prospect of monetary policy easing acts as a bullish driver for the stock market.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Growth Slows


Equity markets are on the rise:
→ The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has reached a new all-time high;
→ The Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) hit a fresh record high yesterday;
→ Gains are also seen across other assets — for example, Ethereum has climbed to its highest level since November 2021.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index indicates market “greed”, but it is worth noting that one of the market leaders, Nvidia (NVDA), is not matching the broader bullish momentum.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Notional Value vs Market Value in Trading?


When dealing with financial instruments, understanding key valuation metrics is crucial. Two important terms often used in trading are notional value and market value. While both relate to the worth of an asset or a contract, they serve different purposes and can significantly impact risk assessment, position sizing, and leverage calculations. In this article, we will break down the differences between notional value vs market value, explain their significance, and highlight how traders can use them to manage risk and optimise their strategies.

What Is Notional Value?
Notional value meaning refers to the total value of a trade based on the underlying asset. It is also known as face value or par value in stocks and bonds. It is a critical concept in leveraged instruments because it reflects the full exposure a trader has, even if only a fraction of that amount is required upfront.
It’s particularly relevant in forex, futures, and other derivatives, where traders control large positions with relatively small capital outlays. Let’s say a trader buys a standard lot of 100,000 units of the EUR/USD pair, investing only $10,000 as a margin. Although they invested only $10,000, their exposure will be $100,000. If the current exchange rate is 1.10, the notional value of this trade would be 110,000 USD (100,000×1.10). This is why traders in leveraged assets often focus on this metric when assessing risk.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Dollar Moderately Declines Amid Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut


The major dollar pairs, particularly USD/JPY and USD/CAD, remain under moderate pressure as market participants react to a softer US inflation backdrop and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Additional downward pressure on the greenback stems from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks, in which he allowed for a 50 bps reduction as the opening move in a monetary easing cycle. Against this backdrop, the US currency is giving up part of its recent gains; however, its further trajectory will depend on incoming data.

Today’s focus is on US releases that could trigger heightened volatility and potentially lead to a breakout of key ranges: initial jobless claims and a batch of data on the headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI). Market reaction to these indicators could prove pivotal: signs of cooling price pressures and a weakening labour market may reinforce expectations for a deeper rate-cut trajectory, whereas strong readings could restore some support for the dollar.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Australian Dollar Retreats from August Highs



This week, forex traders’ attention is firmly on the AUD/USD market following key news releases from Australia:
→ Tuesday: Interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts’ forecasts were confirmed as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.60%.
→ Today: Labour market statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.
This dynamic fundamental backdrop has driven a rich technical setup on the AUD/USD chart, where bearish sentiment currently prevails.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Hang Seng Index Pulls Back from 2025 High


Yesterday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) climbed above 25,745 points, setting a new 2025 high — and marking its highest level since autumn 2021.
August’s bullish sentiment was fuelled by the following drivers:
→ China and the US agreed to continue tariff negotiations in mutual trade through to November.
→ Citi analysts noted that the implementation of additional demand-stimulus measures in China is progressing as planned.
→ According to Reuters, investor interest in China’s technology sector is increasing.
However, today the Hang Seng is trading lower, suggesting that yesterday’s optimism is gradually fading.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Retracement vs Reversal: What's the Difference?


In trading, distinguishing between market retracements and reversals is crucial for risk management and overall success. This article explores these two key concepts, providing traders with insights on how to identify and respond to these different market movements. Let's delve into the intricacies of retracements and reversals and the difference between the two.

Understanding Market Trends
Let us remind you that market trends refer to the general direction in which the price of an asset is moving. Traders classify these trends as upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or sideways (range-bound).

Upward trends are characterised by higher highs and higher lows, indicating growing market confidence. Downward trends display lower highs and lower lows, signalling declining market sentiment. Sideways trends show little movement in either direction, reflecting uncertainty or consolidation in the market. These concepts are important, as they’re key in establishing whether a move is a retracement or reversal.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Intel (INTC) Stock Price Rises 7% Amid White House Rumours


Intel (INTC) stock price surged more than 7% yesterday, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). The rally came on the back of a report in Barron’s stating that the US government is in talks to acquire a stake in Intel:

→ Intel declined to comment on Barron's report.
→ White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated: “Discussion about hypothetical deals should be regarded as speculation unless officially announced by the Administration.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is negotiating with Intel over a potential US government stake in the company – a move aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and supporting Intel’s plans to build a new facility in Ohio.
The prospect of state backing for the American chipmaker triggered a sharp bullish impulse yesterday, which could extend into today. In pre-market trading, INTC shares are hovering around $25 – their highest level since March.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Shows Optimism Ahead of Trump–Putin Meeting


The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation, scheduled for today in Alaska, is a major geopolitical event with the potential to exert a significant influence on financial markets.
Expectations are mounting that the talks could lead to a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine – a prospect acting as a bullish factor for the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD chart has been displaying an upward trajectory this week (highlighted by the blue channel).

The blue arrow indicates that:
→ Yesterday’s release of the highest Producer Price Index (PPI) figures in three years triggered a sharp strengthening of the US dollar – possibly because market participants assumed the Federal Reserve might postpone monetary policy easing in light of rising producer prices (widely considered a consequence of Trump’s tariff measures).
→ However, the lower boundary of the upward channel prevented further decline, and today EUR/USD is showing optimism ahead of the presidential meeting.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Pushes Higher While EUR/GBP Attempts to Find Support


GBP/USD is showing strength above 1.3450 and 1.3500. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above 0.8600.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3500.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8650 pivot level.
4. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8635 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3400. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3475 against the US Dollar.
The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3500. The pair even climbed above 1.3550 and traded as high as 1.3594. Recently, there was a pullback below 1.3575 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3399 swing low to the 1.3594 high.
However, the bulls were active near the 1.3520 support. The pair is again rising above 1.3540. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key Events


In our previous analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY), we:
→ outlined a descending channel (red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lows;
→ anticipated a move towards the median line of this channel.
As of 18 August, the DXY is trading around the median of the channel and is forming a contracting triangle pattern (blue). The RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level, indicating equilibrium between supply and demand.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Types of Stocks To Be Aware Of?


There are different stock types, each with unique characteristics that affect their market behaviour as well as potential risk and returns. From common and preferred stocks to growth, value, and dividend stocks, understanding these categories may assist in market analysis. This article answers the question, “What are the different types of stocks?”, exploring their key differences and explaining how each type fits into the broader market.

The 4 Types of Stocks: Common vs Preferred and Growth vs Value
Stocks perform differently depending on market conditions, economic cycles, and company fundamentals. Understanding the differences may help traders assess risk, diversify portfolios, and align positions with their financial goals.
In terms of general stock classifications, there are 2 types of stock: common and preferred. However, investors also distinguish between 2 additional types of stocks, growth and value.

Common Stocks
Common stocks are the most frequently traded shares, giving holders partial company ownership and voting rights. Investors vote on key decisions like board elections and mergers, though individual influence is usually minimal unless they own a large stake.

Common stock dividends aren't guaranteed. Companies often reinvest potential returns, if they occur, instead—Tesla, for example, prioritises expansion over paying shareholders. However, according to statistics, common stocks historically offer higher potential long-term returns, with the S&P 500 averaging about 10% annually.
Common stocks are prone to volatility, experiencing significant price swings during economic uncertainty or market downturns. During the 2022 market downturn, even established companies like Microsoft and Meta saw sharp declines.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Meta Platforms (META) Shares Decline Amid AI Concerns


Shares of US tech giant Meta Platforms (META) fell by around 3% after media reports revealed that the company plans to reorganise its artificial intelligence operations for the fourth time in six months. The news has raised investor concerns over whether Meta’s AI strategy is on the right track.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Meta intends to begin selling its first smart glasses with a built-in display next month. However, the price may come in lower than expected — at $800 — as the company is willing to accept slimmer margins to stimulate demand (and, consequently, lower its profit outlook).


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Nears Its Lowest Level Since Early Summer


According to the XBR/USD chart, this morning (19 August) Brent crude oil price is showing bearish momentum, moving towards its lowest level since early summer (set last week). The key bearish drivers in the market include:
→ OPEC+ policy aimed at increasing production;
→ expectations that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which would further expand global supply.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Are Commodity Currencies and How Do They Correlate?


Commodity currencies are those tied to the value of a country’s key exports, such as oil, metals, or agricultural goods. Their movements are influenced by shifts in global demand, supply disruptions, and economic policies. In this article, we will explore how commodity prices impact commodity-linked currencies and what traders may need to consider.

What Is a Commodity Currency?
The commodity currency definition refers to currencies issued by countries whose economies rely heavily on exporting natural resources. Their value tends to fluctuate in line with the prices of key commodities like oil, metals, and agricultural goods. When these exports become more valuable, the national economy benefits, often leading to a stronger currency. Conversely, when commodity prices fall, these currencies tend to weaken due to declining export revenues. Several well-known commodity-based currencies fall into this category.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) – Oil and Trade with the US
Canada is one of the world’s largest crude oil exporters, making CAD highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations. A rise in oil prices typically strengthens CAD, as higher revenues improve Canada’s trade balance and economic outlook. CAD also reacts to US economic performance, given that over 75% of Canadian exports go to the US. If US demand weakens, CAD can struggle even if oil prices move in a narrow range.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Again While USD/JPY Aims Fresh Surge


EUR/USD declined from 1.1720 and traded below 1.1650. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above 148.20.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

 

1. The Euro started a fresh decline after a decent move above 1.1680.
2. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.00 and 147.40 levels.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 147.70 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1680 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below 1.1660 against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650, and a low was formed near 1.1622. After that, the pair started a consolidation phase.
There was a minor recovery wave above 1.1630. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing hurdles near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1692 swing high to the 1.1622 low at 1.1640.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro and Pound Lose Support Amid Strong US Data and Inflation Expectations


European currencies remain under pressure: EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue their decline, reflecting the strengthening influence of the US dollar. Last week, US inflation data exceeded forecasts: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan inflation expectations both rose, signalling persistent price pressures in the economy. This factor reinforced the dollar’s position and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on monetary easing.
Additional support for the dollar came from labour market data, which confirmed employment resilience. Together, these developments limit the scope for aggressive rate cuts. Against this backdrop, the euro and pound remain vulnerable ahead of their own inflation releases in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/USD


The inability of EUR/USD buyers to hold above 1.1720 has led to the formation of a tower top reversal pattern on the daily chart. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of a deeper downward correction if the price consolidates below 1.1580. A break of this bearish scenario could occur following a firm move above 1.1720.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Tech Stocks Face Sell-Offs


As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) fell by approximately 1.6% yesterday.
According to media reports, bearish sentiment has been fuelled by the approach of key events:
→ the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (today at 21:00 GMT+3);
→ Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Market participants are preparing for remarks from the Fed Chair on the trajectory of interest rates.
Notably, the S&P 500 declined less significantly, while the Dow Jones remained virtually unchanged. This suggests that:
→ tech stocks are heavily overvalued due to AI-driven hype;
→ capital shifted yesterday from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) into so-called safe havens.
Could tech stocks continue to decline?


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Coinbase (COIN) shares fall to a 2-month low


According to the chart of Coinbase Global (COIN), the stock price of the cryptocurrency exchange is sliding towards the $295 level, a 2-month low.
It is worth recalling that last month we reported that COIN stock had surged to an all-time high around $400. At that time, we:
→ highlighted the long-term grey channel and the short-term blue one;
→ suggested a potential correction from the upper boundary of the grey channel.
Since then, COIN’s share price has declined by more than 20% (yesterday’s drop was fuelled by a broader risk-off sentiment in technology stocks, which we analysed earlier today in the context of the Nasdaq 100 index). If this is indeed a correction from the all-time high, it looks too deep for a bull market. Could COIN shares extend their decline?


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Stock Index Rebalancing, and Why Does It Matter for Traders?


Index rebalancing is a routine adjustment that helps keep stock market indices aligned with their intended structure. It affects stock weightings, trading volume, and market movements, creating both potential opportunities and risks for traders. In this article, we will explain index rebalancing, its impact on markets and CFDs, and what traders may consider when these adjustments take place.

What Is Index Rebalancing?
So what does rebalance mean in the context of an index? Index rebalancing is the process of adjusting the composition of an index to keep it aligned with its intended structure. Indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and FTSE 100 follow specific rules about which companies are included, how they are weighted, and when adjustments take place. Rebalancing ensures an index continues to represent its target market or sector accurately.
The process typically involves adding or removing stocks and adjusting weightings based on factors like market capitalisation, sector representation, or liquidity. For example, if a company in the S&P 500 is acquired or no longer meets the inclusion criteria, it will be removed and replaced with another company. Similarly, if a benchmark is weighted by market cap, stocks that have significantly grown or declined in value may see their weightings adjusted.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.