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  • #123,581
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:38am Jul 2, 2025 5:38am
Quoting johncen
adp was so bad!
Yeah.. well we will see. London had voted on a fall earlier ..It did hit 1747.. But that is probably not enough
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,582
  • Jul 2, 2025 5:44am Jul 2, 2025 5:44am
Man the FED may need to cut if this continues.. 2 ADP misses.. This miss was -4X expected gains
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,583
  • Edited 8:50am Jul 2, 2025 8:20am | Edited 8:50am
If nfp is also red then market would expect a july cut i guess

is a real test to see if bear is back, they need to keep pa under 1805
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,584
  • Jul 2, 2025 12:35pm Jul 2, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting johncen
If nfp is also red then market would expect a july cut i guess is a real test to see if bear is back, they need to keep pa under 1805
ADP was 4X the less the positive number expected. The seems like a big miss. Enough to take back 53 pips. Plus maybe slow/delay the slip. With 1.5 h's to go. 1775 may be pivotal.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,585
  • Jul 2, 2025 12:39pm Jul 2, 2025 12:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ADP was 4X the less the positive number expected. The seems like a big miss. Enough to take back 53 pips. Plus maybe slow/delay the slip. With 1.5 h's to go. 1775 may be pivotal.
if we closing around here maybe hangman on daily?
yea ADP has certainly delays the drop. Everyone waiting for non-farm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,586
  • Jul 2, 2025 12:58pm Jul 2, 2025 12:58pm
Bull to close another day in green?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,587
  • Jul 2, 2025 2:37pm Jul 2, 2025 2:37pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} if we closing around here maybe hangman on daily? yea ADP has certainly delays the drop. Everyone waiting for non-farm
Powell said he would of already cut if not for Trump's tariffs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,588
  • Edited 3:40pm Jul 2, 2025 2:45pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting johncen
Bull to close another day in green?
I can't say no.. I play different rules. But think its posed to slip. The ADP report was opposite. This NFP may allow EU to rise further if bad. ADP indicates NFP will be bad. But today hours ago London whispered to me it would fall. ADP may have stopped/slowed etc. So i dont know whats going on.. I did think we were going to 1738 before ADP. It probably still will go there and or 1720. These may support.. And when below they may be Resistance. Possibly long term resistance. But the Trump card can fu a good economy.. The usd lost more in the past 6 months than the past 52 years. The proof is in the podding. We got a moron with his fingers near the nuke button. A 6X bankrupt felon leading our finances. What could possibly go wrong?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,589
  • Jul 2, 2025 2:53pm Jul 2, 2025 2:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
Bears are looking tough atm pushing down on 1770. If they can't gitterdone A little shallow retrace may happen. historic retrace odds 70 80% compared to immediate breakdown at 20/30% This is when grandpa sits back in the chair sipping some spirits.. {image}
Grandpa likes 40 pip moves.
But expected closer to 1738
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,590
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:47pm Jul 2, 2025 3:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Grandpa likes 40 pip moves. But expected closer to 1738 {image}
bull is keep pushing so i m not sure. I would need bear to take us away from that area asap

would be ideal for pa to go slightly lower before nfp
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,591
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:07pm Jul 2, 2025 4:07pm
Microsoft just laid off 9000 and Amazon anounce millionth robot commisioned. Amazon people numbers now match robots.
13ish hours to NFP. Very low number at 110k forecast. What if it comes in at 90k?
Chances of a rate cut in July leap up.....EURUSD jumps up further?
What if it comes in at 130k? EUR retraces....?

Which one more likely?
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,592
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:10pm Jul 2, 2025 4:10pm
Quoting axecap
Microsoft just laid off 9000 and Amazon anounce millionth robot commisioned. Amazon people numbers now match robots. 13ish hours to NFP. Very low number at 110k forecast. What if it comes in at 90k? Chances of a rate cut in July leap up.....EURUSD jumps up further? What if it comes in at 130k? EUR retraces....? Which one more likely?
with a much lower than expected ADP, if nfp comes out red eu might shoot up, not sure if it would be limited as rate cut this year has been priced in already and once this actually lands, will we see buy rumours sell fact?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,593
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:11pm Jul 2, 2025 4:11pm
Trump post an hour ago. When hes not making the news he knows the news....

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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,594
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:14pm Jul 2, 2025 4:14pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} with a much lower than expected ADP, if nfp comes out red eu might shoot up, not sure if it would be limited as rate cut this year has been priced in already and once this actually lands, will we see buy rumours sell fact?
Rate cut for September priced in, not July.

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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,595
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:15pm Jul 2, 2025 4:15pm
depends also if the Bill gets through in the next 12 hours and in what shape it is in when it does
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,596
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:17pm Jul 2, 2025 4:17pm
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,597
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:36pm Jul 2, 2025 4:36pm
The st drop setup may become invalid above 1805
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,598
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:37pm Jul 2, 2025 4:37pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} Rate cut for September priced in, not July. {image}
yes you are correct, if nfp comes out red eu might shoot up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,599
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:41pm Jul 2, 2025 4:41pm
Quoting axecap
Microsoft just laid off 9000 and Amazon anounce millionth robot commisioned. Amazon people numbers now match robots. 13ish hours to NFP. Very low number at 110k forecast. What if it comes in at 90k? Chances of a rate cut in July leap up.....EURUSD jumps up further? What if it comes in at 130k? EUR retraces....? Which one more likely?
AI is set to cut about 50% of middle management jobs. At least that the starting forecast. Robots will just make many non skilled workers obsolete. Then it will focus on the skilled ones. Its the future..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,600
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:47pm Jul 2, 2025 4:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} AI is set to cut about 50% of middle management jobs. At least that the starting forecast. Robots will just make many non skilled workers obsolete. Then it will focus on the skilled ones. Its the future..
all new robots are AI capable, some with email addresses
Its all just one persons opinion
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