Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Analytical Projections on UK Interest Rates for 2025 and 2026



As the UK navigates a complex economic landscape marked by trade tensions, evolving monetary policy, and persistent inflationary pressures, the trajectory of interest rates remains a focal point. In 2025 and looking ahead to 2026, forecasts on UK interest rates diverge amid uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics, domestic growth prospects, and the Bank of England’s policy response. This article delves into expert projections, weighing economic indicators and institutional forecasts to provide an outlook on where UK interest rates may be headed over the next two years.

UK Interest Rate Environment
The UK's interest rate landscape has undergone significant transformations over the past few years. From the end of 2021 to the middle of 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 5.25%—the highest in UK interest rates history since 2008. The decision to elevate interest rates from near-zero levels was primarily driven by the need to counteract rising inflation, which has emerged as a considerable threat to the UK's economic stability.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) Shares Decline Due to Stablecoin Bill



Yesterday, we reported that the US Senate had passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill, which establishes a legal framework for regulating the stablecoin market. This development led to a sharp rise in the share price of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), while simultaneously putting pressure on Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) shares.
According to media reports, market participants are concerned that stablecoins could pose serious competition to these companies, which earn revenue primarily from transaction fees. This serves as an example of how blockchain technology, with its low-cost features and high speed, could disrupt leaders in the traditional finance sector.




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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s Decision


As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil has pulled back from yesterday’s 4.5-month high following a statement from the White House that President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether the United States will take part in the Israel-Iran conflict.
According to Reuters, the US President is facing backlash from some members of his team over the prospect of launching a strike against Iran, which could drag the US into yet another prolonged war.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Theories of Technical Analysis



Dive deep into the intricacies of technical analysis with a close examination of five pivotal theories of technical analysis — Dow, Wyckoff, Gann, Elliott, and Merrill. Unravel their foundational concepts, applications, and histories to gain a comprehensive grasp of market dynamics with this article.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran


As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dips Below Support, USD/CAD Breaks Higher


GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.3620 zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3765 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound started another decline from the 1.3620 resistance zone.
2. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.3460 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3720 support zone.
4. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3740 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.3620 resistance zone. The British Pound started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.3550 support zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.3500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.3380 level. There was a recovery wave above the 1.3450 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3622 swing high to the 1.3382 low.
However, the bears were active near the 1.3500 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level. As a result, there was a fresh bearish reaction below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 1.3460.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 23 - 27 June


Market Insights with Gary Thomson: Canada Inflation, US Core Consumer Metrics, and Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode, we discuss:
— Inflation Rate in Canada
— US Durable Goods Orders
— US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Personal Spending
— Corporate Earnings Statements

Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.

Watch YOUTUBE VIDEO

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How Leverage May Impact Your Trading



Leverage trading has become the standard for many modern traders. But with its potential rewards come inherent risks. This article delves into the intricacies of leverage trading, helping traders with any level of experience understand its pros, cons, and best practices.

What Is Leverage Trading?
You definitely know what leverage trading is. But let us remind you of its fundamentals. Leverage trading is a financial practice that allows traders to amplify their exposure to the market without increasing their capital investment. Essentially, it involves borrowing funds to magnify potential returns on an investment.
A brokerage or financial institution provides this additional capital, enabling traders to take on larger positions than they could with their own funds alone. In this way, leverage enhances the potential for higher profits. However, it's crucial to remember that while profits can be magnified, so can losses.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Stock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement



Last night, U.S. President Donald Trump made a social media post announcing a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. According to his own words, the ceasefire is set to last “forever.” This announcement triggered a sharp bullish impulse (indicated by the blue arrow) on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), pushing the price to a new high above the 6074 level.

Just yesterday, traders feared that the United States could be drawn into yet another costly war following bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, today the stock markets are recovering, signalling growing optimism and a waning of fears over a major escalation of the conflict.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Launch of Robotaxi Service Boosts Tesla (TSLA) Share Price by Over 8%


As previously announced by Elon Musk, Tesla has launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The cost of a ride is $4.20.
The service is not yet fully operational. It is more of an extended testing phase, as access is currently by invitation only, and a Tesla employee may be present in the back seat.
Nevertheless, the market responded positively — Tesla (TSLA) shares rose by more than 8% (comparing the closing prices of daily candlesticks).


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Trading with Trendlines



Technical analysis is a method used in the financial markets to evaluate and forecast future price movements of assets, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*, based on historical price data. Trading with trendlines is a fundamental aspect of technical analysis employed by traders and investors to decipher market trends and optimise trading decisions. This article will cover how to draw trendlines on candlestick charts and will explain several trendline strategies.

What Are Trendlines?
Trendlines are graphical representations of price movements, helping traders visualise the overall direction of a market trend. They can be either upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or horizontal (sideways). Bullish trendlines connect ascending highs and lows, bearish trendlines connect descending highs and lows, while horizontal lines connect almost equal highs and lows.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD & NZD/USD Show Bullish Hints, Can Gains Be Sustained?


AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6440 and 0.6465 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.6040.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar rebounded after forming a base above the 0.6370 level against the US Dollar.
2. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.6000 zone.
4. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5970 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6370 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6400 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6440 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6520 zone. A high was formed near 0.6519 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.
The pair dipped and tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6372 swing low to the 0.6519 high.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6485 level. The next major support is near the 0.6465 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.6465 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6445 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Yen and Euro Strengthen Ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech


The dollar continues to lose ground against the yen and euro amid an adjustment in market expectations ahead of today's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are expecting the Chair to comment on the outlook for interest rates and inflationary pressures in the United States.
An additional factor contributing to downward pressure on the dollar could be the upcoming release of U.S. data on building permits, new home sales, and crude oil inventories. Although these reports have not yet been published, analysts expect a moderate slowdown in the figures. This is fuelling speculation about a more dovish stance from the Fed in the coming months. In anticipation of these developments, market participants are adopting a cautious position, which is reflected in declining interest in the dollar.

The external backdrop is also contributing to the decline in demand for the dollar. Markets responded positively to reports of a potential de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as indications of a partial withdrawal of the United States from direct military involvement. This has eased geopolitical tensions and supported the rise of so-called safe-haven currencies such as the yen and euro.
In the upcoming trading sessions, market dynamics will be focused on the tone of the Fed Chair's speech. Should his remarks confirm a willingness to ease policy in the second half of the year, the dollar may continue to decline locally against major currencies. Otherwise, a corrective rebound in the dollar may begin.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Coinbase (COIN) Shares Hit Year-to-Date High


As we reported six days ago, shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) received a strong bullish boost after the US Senate approved the GENIUS bill, which sets out regulations for the use of stablecoins.
As the Coinbase Global (COIN) stock chart shows, the rally is ongoing. Yesterday, the price surged by over 12%, once again becoming the top performer in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).

Bullish sentiment is being fuelled by news that:
→ Two funds managed by Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest acquired around 4,200 Coinbase shares;
→ Analysts at Benchmark raised their target price for Coinbase Global (COIN) from $301 to $421.
Could the COIN share price continue to rise?


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Oil Price Falls Below Pre-Escalation Levels of Middle East Conflict


According to the XBR/USD chart:
→ Prior to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, the price of Brent crude was hovering around the $69.00 mark;
→ Following US bombings in Iran, the price spiked at the Monday market open, reaching a high of approximately $77.77 (as we reported on 23 June).
However, after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — later confirmed by statements from both sides — oil prices dropped sharply. This morning, Brent is trading around $68, which is even lower than the level seen before the initial strikes.
Media outlets report that analysts broadly agree that fears have eased, even if the ceasefire appears fragile. Market participants seem to view the likelihood of the conflict escalating into a full-scale ground war — involving US troops and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as low. Shipping through the strait is reportedly returning to normal.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Trading Strategies for Volatile Markets



Volatile markets can both be challenging and present multiple opportunities for traders. Harnessing the power of specific trading strategies, from the Bollinger Band Squeeze to the nuanced VWAP and RSI combination, can provide critical insights into potential price movements. But these aren’t trade secrets; rather powerful strategies for volatile markets that have stood the test of time. Join us as we uncover four trading and investment strategies that work during market volatility.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Key Economic Data from the US and Canada


Currency markets are showing restrained movement, with USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs remaining in a consolidation phase amid rising geopolitical tensions and anticipation of key economic data releases from the US and Canada. Investors are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of inflation data and consumer activity reports that could significantly impact interest rate trajectories.

An additional source of uncertainty came from geopolitical developments: US President Donald Trump unexpectedly stated that China may continue purchasing oil from Iran despite existing US sanctions. This statement, made after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, caused confusion in the market and contributed to increased volatility in oil prices. The renewed focus on the Middle East is strengthening interest in commodity-linked currencies but also increasing the volatility of currency pairs sensitive to raw material prices.

Today, market participants await the release of US data on initial jobless claims, personal spending, trade inventories, and the Consumer Expenditure Price Index. From Canada, data on wholesale sales and average weekly earnings are expected. Forecasts suggest the numbers will fall within expected ranges, but any deviations could trigger moves in the USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nasdaq 100: A New All-Time High


As shown on the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the value of the technology stock index has risen above its February peak, setting a new historical high.
Bullish sentiment may be supported by:
→ Easing concerns over potential US involvement in a Middle East war, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect.
→ Media reports suggesting that Donald Trump is considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by September or October, in an effort to influence a rate cut that could accelerate economic growth (though this also raises the risk of a new inflationary wave).


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Soars to Record High


Yesterday, Nvidia’s (NVDA) share price surged by over 4%, with the following key developments:
→ It broke through the psychological $150 per share level;
→ It reached a new all-time high;
→ It also contributed to the Nasdaq 100 index hitting a record peak, as we reported earlier this morning.
As a result, Nvidia has reclaimed its status as the world’s most valuable company. Demand for its shares is being fuelled by the CEO’s optimism.
“We have many growth opportunities across our company, with AI and robotics the two largest, representing a multitrillion-dollar growth opportunity,” said Jensen Huang at Nvidia’s annual investor conference.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

How to Overcome Trading Psychology Challenges



Dealing with common trading psychology challenges involves identifying and addressing the emotional and psychological factors that impact performance. This means you need to know how to manage fear, greed, hope, and regret carefully. In this post, we’ll talk about forex trading psychology and proper emotional control.
In our previous FXOpen article, we discussed stock trading psychology, so if you are interested in this topic, read more here.

What Is the Psychology of Trading?
Trading psychology focuses on the mental state of a trader and the emotions that could predetermine trading decisions. It represents the various aspects of an individual’s character and behaviours that influence their trading actions. The psychology of trading is just as crucial as knowledge about assets (currencies, stocks, and commodities), your previous experience, and your skill in determining price movements.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.