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  • #122,321
  • Apr 17, 2025 6:31am Apr 17, 2025 6:31am
gu and au are very bullish. But damn I had the gu 200 pips lower this week for Friday (1.3058). and the AU 147 lower .6236. My bad..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,322
  • Apr 17, 2025 6:57am Apr 17, 2025 6:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its possible. But before that happens I'm sure the tariffs will be lowered. The stated purpose of the tariffs is to bring industry back to the U.S. So there should be no deals to lower tem once placed. The deal crap is a guy trying is double talk bullshit. As he has done his entire life. He was seldom was called out on his bullshit. A rich kid allowed to do anything he wanted. A bully who never had a street fight. A con artist. That bond market will cut his nuts off. If the bonds are dropping causing interest rates to rise. It will dry up...
Well I agree with you on I absolutely hate his interference with global markets and fucking with everyones 401ks and etc etc

Personally though my indicators for trading have always been rate cuts, sentiment, fundementals, and buying fear though and still think this is a great buying zone if we dont enter a market crash like covid/08 and i believe the sentiment couldnt get much worse from a few days ago.

If geopolitical stuff doesnt crash the markets - usually we've seen 7-14 years of a bull market before recesssions not to mention interest rates are not in dangerous zones gl everyone
rennstimp
  • #122,323
  • Edited 8:12am Apr 17, 2025 8:02am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Well I agree with you on I absolutely hate his interference with global markets and fucking with everyones 401ks and etc etc Personally though my indicators for trading have always been rate cuts, sentiment, fundementals, and buying fear though and still think this is a great buying zone if we dont enter a market crash like covid/08 and i believe the sentiment couldnt get much worse from a few days ago. If geopolitical stuff doesnt crash the markets - usually we've seen 7-14 years of a bull market before recesssions not to mention interest...
The problem in business is there is no certainty on what he will do. He says he wants to bring back production to the U.S. But he is still making deals. So who in there right mind will borrow the capitol to build a factory. That takes 3 years to build. When at any moment he will pull the tariffs off anyone who compliments his large hands. What's already done has hurt U.S. manufacturers supply chains. Who's gonna build a factory when at any moment the cost to build it may go up? On a steel tariff wim? He already put 10s of thousands of mom and pop importers out of business with the 140% tariffs. They just dont know it yet. They and their workers will be looking at the unemployment line. OSB is considered a soft wood, its in most new homes. The last time he put a smaller tariff. The price went from about 8$ to over 60$. Add that to home construction prices. We make osb in the usa. But when the tariffs rise. U.S. makers raise their price too. the same with steel and aluminum. Ever manufacturing job saved with tariffs cost 6 jobs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,324
  • Apr 17, 2025 8:06am Apr 17, 2025 8:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The problem in business is there is no certainty on what he will do. He says he wants to bring back production to the U.S. But he is still making deals. So who in there right mind will borrow the capitol to build a factory. That takes 3 years to build. When at any moment he will pull the tariffs off anyone who compliments his large hands.
you dont gotta convince me hes a retard my 401 and roth have been hit hard by this retard

same point etc etc but at what point does the likelyhood of a complete market crash after market shock become less likely than getting into equities 20%-/+ a bargin

disclaimer i havent fx traded in years

not to say there isnt risk but yes there is alot of fear right now in global markets or essentially the us market
rennstimp
  • #122,325
  • Apr 17, 2025 8:27am Apr 17, 2025 8:27am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} you dont gotta convince me hes a retard my 401 and roth have been hit hard by this retard same point etc etc but at what point does the likelyhood of a complete market crash after market shock become less likely than getting into equities 20%-/+ a bargin disclaimer i havent fx traded in years not to say there isnt risk but yes there is alot of fear right now in global markets or essentially the us market
A 20% drop has historically been a good time to buy.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A 20% drop has historically been a good time to buy.
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2008/2009 a 54% drop.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,326
  • Apr 17, 2025 9:03am Apr 17, 2025 9:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A 20% drop has historically been a good time to buy. {quote}{image} {image} {image} 2008/2009 a 54% drop. {image} {image}
I got more than 50% in stocks.
Maybe if we test the lows I'll buy more but if we do not get deals ASAP this thing will take a while to unfold.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,327
  • Edited 9:59am Apr 17, 2025 9:48am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I got more than 50% in stocks. Maybe if we test the lows I'll buy more but if we do not get deals ASAP this thing will take a while to unfold.
For the market to get as high as it was. That was built on confidence. Not only americans pushed it up. The U.S. stock markets outpaced the world stock markets since Covid. That premium is likely gone. Add in "some just dont want to do business with the U.S. now." Markets rise a lot with easy money, low interest. Powell didnt give a rosy outlook for cutting. I just left my credit union. They offered me 7% in my checking account. In the 1970s I was getting 7.25%. More in 1980. 7.25% was normal. The people who have lived the past 40 years have never seen normal. We may be seeing a new normal. Where people actually had to save to buy a home. Unlike the past few decades. When interest rates rise. Home equity declines. Not only are people 401k is falling, the house worth may be falling. Add in some inflation and people will be look for a rope
In closing, the market may have a long term high built
The U.S. economy makes about 1 Trillion in tourism, thats likely to fall.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,328
  • Apr 17, 2025 10:06am Apr 17, 2025 10:06am
Dot com, and 911 combined down 50%
2008 more than 50% over liquidity.
Liquidity again at 50% near 3100.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,329
  • Apr 17, 2025 10:29am Apr 17, 2025 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} For the market to get as high as it was. That was built on confidence. Not only americans pushed it up. The U.S. stock markets outpaced the world stock markets since Covid. That premium is likely gone. Add in "some just dont want to do business with the U.S. now." Markets rise a lot with easy money, low interest. Powell didnt give a rosy outlook for cutting. I just left my credit union. They offered me 7% in my checking account. In the 1970s I was getting 7.25%. More in 1980. 7.25% was normal. The people who have lived the past 40 years...
I agree, but I’ve never lost money in the past 30 years when buying stocks that had dropped, and I have patience, that’s not a problem. Last year, I didn’t even want to look at the market, everything was so expensive. The lower it goes, the better. If it takes longer, I’ll just leave them to the kids.


I agree that something has changed, but unless great deals show up elsewhere, the U.S. will still do better than any other country. We have the strongest nation, the strictest laws to protect shareholders, and the most innovative and efficient companies. Nothing can beat the U.S. I don’t believe at all in this idea of selling U.S. companies to buy in Europe or Asia. I’ve heard those stories a few times over the years.
With or without Trump, we’ll see another bull market, and if not, at least the kids will.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,330
  • Apr 17, 2025 1:04pm Apr 17, 2025 1:04pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I agree, but I’ve never lost money in the past 30 years when buying stocks that had dropped, and I have patience, that’s not a problem. Last year, I didn’t even want to look at the market, everything was so expensive. The lower it goes, the better. If it takes longer, I’ll just leave them to the kids. I agree that something has changed, but unless great deals show up elsewhere, the U.S. will still do better than any other country. We have the strongest nation, the strictest laws to protect shareholders, and the most innovative and efficient...
From about 1979 till about 1991. They oil states were hit hard. the rest of the country was hit but affected less. At the time these mega houses that are common now, were rare. Anyway this period was worse than most recessions. There was a housing bubble. I bought many newer houses. At 1/2 of what hey sold for 3 years earlier. I bought houses for as little as 1500$. I could had bought some for 200$. They just didnt want to buy in New Orleans. I regret not buying those too. Post 2008 had some similar types of deals. My point being, the houses price drop will come again. They always do. But they get very cheap in the process. The same with stocks
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,331
  • Apr 17, 2025 1:09pm Apr 17, 2025 1:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The Fed chair Powell said he was staying. If he is fired, and a nut like Larry Kudlow is the nominee. Expect the bond market to tank the stock market. Then you will see some nervous people, and window jumping. Everything I heard so far is inflationary. Hopefully some adults will take the keys from grandpa
And just a few months later!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who would of thunk DT would come at Powell for his own FU. I dont get why people are surprised
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,332
  • Apr 17, 2025 1:16pm Apr 17, 2025 1:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} And just a few months later!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who would of thunk DT would come at Powell for his own FU. I dont get why people are surprised
I guess if Powell can't be fired, and Powell isn't afraid to say he is not leaving. The next best thing would be to say is "interest rates are too high, the world should bring them down." It wasn't a Tweet. It was speaking to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, he said that he will demand rates come down once oil prices decline. He always fucks up the market. He cant keep his mouth shut. And all these leaders know he is lying. Drop rates with its barely ticking down and low employment. It will return with vengeance.
Let's break it down.
1.He wants Opec to pump more to bring the price down?. Whats that say to U.S. producers? Anyone thinks they want to drill on fallen prices? I'm in a oil state. I was once in the industry. My family still is. Producers like high oil prices. And when there is too much, the price falls. (Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on April 20, 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark for crude oil, closed at -$37.62 per barrel.) The truth is even before January 20. Oil U.S. oil production was rising to a record all time high since 2009. They dont want to drill more to drop the price.
2. Ok lets take away the labor producing our food, and building homes. To get others to do this work they will want to be paid more. I also live in a agriculture area.
3. The unemployment rate is 4%,, The best its been since the 1960s. We dont have spare labor. We have millions of unfilled jobs already.
4. Add some higher cost to products with tariffs. Yeah Americans want more of that
5. Rates? Inflation, and loose money go hand in hand. There is a balance. Inflation was ticking down. These will increase inflation.

The usd is a world commodity. A view on what the market thinks about the usd as a stock or commodity. Is it comparative price to other currencies. From what the past few days have shown. The usd is in for some harder times. The bond market will eventually step in. That forum in Switzerland was real financial leaders. They know he was lying.
Everything said in this speech was anti usd. Trade in that direction

For anyone interested the death rate in untread bird flu is a lot higher than the 1% that Covid was. The deathrate's may be as high as 50% if untreated. Ebola 50-90%. The CDC is no longer able to tell us this or report. Good luck!..
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I guess if Powell can't be fired, and Powell isn't afraid to say he is not leaving. The next best thing would be to say is "interest rates are too high, the world should bring them down." It wasn't a Tweet. It was speaking to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, he said that he will demand rates come down once oil prices decline. He always fucks up the market. He cant keep...
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {quote} Musk wants the USA checkbook. That way they can stop all payments to who they dont like. This would include millions of people, as well as 100dreds of thousands businesses or more. This would hurt all businesses. It would drive rates up. And a stock market mother of all drops. I heard Timothy Gribben resigned. If this be true, along with the other chaos. The bond market may be getting nervous. That may aid the usd. Causing the EU and GU to fall. Whenever the bond market has enough. You can expect market circuit breakers to trip. Nervous senators/congressman will start lying. 401K's will drop. What's going on with the FBI, happens in third world countries. The USD getting strong based on bond market, and rates normal affect. This affects should be enough to take the keys from grandpa. Quote me on it. The bond market is usually the first to respond. Tick tock. The Bureau of the Fiscal Service within the Treasury Department is responsible for writing checks for the federal government. The Bureau also orders new check stock. Explanation The Treasury Department designates Department of State personnel as United States Disbursing Officers. These officers are authorized to issue, store, obtain, verify, cancel, and reissue checks. The Federal Reserve processes government checks.
It's not like nobody saw it coming.
What could possibly go wrong. With putting a guy you know is lying to you in charge.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,333
  • Apr 17, 2025 2:08pm Apr 17, 2025 2:08pm
The child king is mad at the adults
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/17/nx-s1...conomy-tariffs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,334
  • Edited 4:40pm Apr 17, 2025 4:24pm | Edited 4:40pm
The Covid drop was 35%
The current drop is a smaller %.
But its larger in points
This current drop was 1.6X the size of the 2008 crash in points
Of the 10 worst days in the stock market. 9 of them had the same president. That was 2 weeks ago. It may be 10 for 10 now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,335
  • Apr 18, 2025 2:15am Apr 18, 2025 2:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} From about 1979 till about 1991. They oil states were hit hard. the rest of the country was hit but affected less. At the time these mega houses that are common now, were rare. Anyway this period was worse than most recessions. There was a housing bubble. I bought many newer houses. At 1/2 of what hey sold for 3 years earlier. I bought houses for as little as 1500$. I could had bought some for 200$. They just didnt want to buy in New Orleans. I regret not buying those too. Post 2008 had some similar types of deals. My point being, the houses...
You're right, but there's one thing to point out, even those who bought at 20,000, 10,000, 5,000, 2,000, or 1,500 all made money. Those who don't buy because they think it's going to drop even more usually end up buying very little or nothing at all. I’ll keep buying all the time, and I usually sell poorly when the market exaggerates in a ridiculously stupid way.


But real estate, even though there have been some downturns, even if you sold during them, what do you do with the money? Since 1990, there haven’t really been massive crashes in real estate, or let’s say the one in 2000 was enough, maybe also after 2008 a bit. But look where we are today, both in the stock market and in real estate.
I know exactly what I’m buying, and I doubt many of the companies I invest in will have serious problems. I’m diversified enough, maybe 5 or 10 out of 100 will go bankrupt, but the rest will grow, and some will explode.

It’s like that in everything, you just need to know what you’re buying and what the company actually does. Most people have no clue. Same goes for real estate, location, location, location.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,336
  • Apr 18, 2025 9:25am Apr 18, 2025 9:25am
No one seems to be getting ready for the empty shelves. Starting in a few weeks, port freight out of California will be nearly eliminated.

Remember peak Covid? In May 2020 there were 51 shipments blank sailings (not enough cargo) in Cali ports. April, this April 2025 has over 80 blank sailings so far. Have a relative (MAGA) who works Port of L.A. Don't talk to him because he's a dipshit but his wife said the crews are being told to take vacations (at normally a busy time) and prepare for layoffs. These are high paying union jobs. Not to mention all that freight, drayage that gets put on trains, on trucks that run east on I-20, I-40, all those truck stops, diners all along the way that are going to lose business. Not to mention the shit that will not be the shelves. Everyone still pretending things are normal.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #122,337
  • Edited 3:13pm Apr 20, 2025 2:45pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} You're right, but there's one thing to point out, even those who bought at 20,000, 10,000, 5,000, 2,000, or 1,500 all made money. Those who don't buy because they think it's going to drop even more usually end up buying very little or nothing at all. I’ll keep buying all the time, and I usually sell poorly when the market exaggerates in a ridiculously stupid way. But real estate, even though there have been some downturns, even if you sold during them, what do you do with the money? Since 1990, there haven’t really been massive crashes in...
Most turns point to buy is about a 20% drop. I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm saying we had larger drops in the past, Dot com to now.. Those larger drops did not face stagflation. They did not face the loss in treasury confidence. This time may be unique. He still can change it. Nobody knows if he will. If he dont, those 50 and 53% numbers are real. Even when we had the 50% drops, treasury confidence was not in the equation. This time it may be worse
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,338
  • Apr 20, 2025 2:56pm Apr 20, 2025 2:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Most turns point to buy is about a 20% drop. I'm saying you are wrong. I'm saying we had larger drops in the past, Dot com to now.. Those larger drops did not face stagflation. They did not face the loss in treasury confidence. This time may be unique. He still can change it. Nobody knows if he will. If he dont, those 50 and 53% numbers are real. Even when we had the 50% drops, treasury confidence was not in the equation. This time it may be worse
wherher USD remains the global currency has never been the question but this time people are actually thinking about this.
Even if he changes his mind, people will be looking for alternative.
it is something that the US cannot afford to lose
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,339
  • Edited 3:15pm Apr 20, 2025 3:04pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting longfellow
No one seems to be getting ready for the empty shelves. Starting in a few weeks, port freight out of California will be nearly eliminated. Remember peak Covid? In May 2020 there were 51 shipments blank sailings (not enough cargo) in Cali ports. April, this April 2025 has over 80 blank sailings so far. Have a relative (MAGA) who works Port of L.A. Don't talk to him because he's a dipshit but his wife said the crews are being told to take...
Exactly the bulk importers selling to mom and pops (smaller retailers). They sell to the public. This all cost money. If the importer expected to 5k for a container tariff. Its now 10k plus. The mom and pops may are cutting orders already. Those ships are going to sit fully loaded. The shipping companies that are not paid, will sell the cargo (for pennies on the dollar auction). The manufacturer will not be paid. The mom and pop will have empty shelves. The importer, the shippers, the mom and pop etc will lay off workers. Quicker than people think. We may be left with 2 or 3 mega stores like walmart. Who control the entire countries retail imports.

Those ships loaded, are not making the return trip. That's how you stop the supply chain. Remember Covid supply chain empty shelf problems?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,340
  • Apr 20, 2025 6:00pm Apr 20, 2025 6:00pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} wherher USD remains the global currency has never been the question but this time people are actually thinking about this. Even if he changes his mind, people will be looking for alternative. it is something that the US cannot afford to lose
The problem isn't the dollar being considered a global currency "That will remain so for a relatively long time.".
The problem is the instability under the Trump policies.

If you look back at his first term, you'll find the same crushing decline in the dollar during the same period "It may not have been as rapid".

So during the first period of his term i think we may reach 1.2300 but i don't know it will continue more or no.
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