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DAX Futures June 2025

  • #241
  • Apr 2, 2025 2:49am Apr 2, 2025 2:49am
from your earlier post - DAX CASH INDEX stands in pre market at 22425 while DAX FUTURE stands at 22650 (+225 pts higher)
1) here Futures Higher than Spot (Positive Basis) - do you consider as bullish?
2) do CFD and future both have their own mind - like both can be out of sync from time to time?
3) like in general, who follows - CFD/Cash follow future price?
4) do you consider any other correlation like bond, gold, options or anyother that possibly shows what Dax might do, or just Cash/future chart of Dax?
or any other observation that you would like to share that make us bit better trader?
Be Greedy
Dices Return This Week: na
  • #242
  • Edited 4:31am Apr 2, 2025 3:57am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting AKCodingEye
from your earlier post - DAX CASH INDEX stands in pre market at 22425 while DAX FUTURE stands at 22650 (+225 pts higher) 1) here Futures Higher than Spot (Positive Basis) - do you consider as bullish? 2) do CFD and future both have their own mind - like both can be out of sync from time to time? 3) like in general, who follows - CFD/Cash follow future price? 4) do you consider any other correlation like bond, gold, options or anyother that possibly shows what Dax might do, or just Cash/future chart of Dax? or any other observation that you would...
Your words are so kind and make me feel as a Professor, as a teacher here, but I consider myself only a survivor here, in this crazy financial market.

Anyway here below my answers:

1. No, DAX FUTURE JUNE price is higher compared to DAX CASH INDEX price only because Market Makers/BigBoys/Institutionals see an higher price than today on mid June when current DAX FUTURE will expire.
We also must take into account most dividends/shares of German DAX Companies will be usually paid in between May/June, so seasonality factor is also included, but in the end this is not so important as the difference is only 1% (+225 pts) and taking into account the above factors is nothing on mid term perspective.

2. No, they both move in same way, absolutely in same way, same direction, same trend, they are only different financial instruments linked to main German financial market. In practice if DAX FUTURE fall for 100 pts in 5 minutes, same magnitude and direction you'll see on DAX CASH INDEX in the same time.

3. Once a PRO trader explained to me that is DAX FUTURE that is the 1st to move, but we are talking of msecs, and I dont remember exactly his explanation.
On my humble small perspective I can only say that while I can see/check in exact way volumetric candles on main FDAX (main DAX FUTURE traded only by BigBoys as nobody can afford his margin account , currently 40k euro for 1 position ovnight) DAX CASH INDEX have not in principle volumes as it's only the average of XETRA DAX40 main German Companies.
In practice 2 days ago after midday I wrote here on this journal when market was in panic/sell off mode, that I saw enormous volumes on buy side for FDAX at 22200/250 zone.....since then DAX was only on the rise sine yd close for more than 600/550 pts.

4. When I started to trade DAX a couple decades ago, there was a strict INVERSE correlation with German BUND (FGBL code at Eurex) and often with EURUSD.
But I was not able to follow all these prices same time, specially when Eurex launched FDXS (micro DAX FUTURE) and FDXM (mini DAX FUTURE), so nowadays I have 4 financial instruments to trade this beast....it's enough.....all too!!!
My only external refer is US SP500 main US index, not future. Often ther's correlation, specially on European after hours, but it's not a fixed rule.

5. To be a better trader, I can only remain humble and with both feet on the ground when I got profits and thanks every cents gains, as financial market is designed on human weakness, to fool all of us, most of the time, NO WAY!! You must develop a technique in line with yourself, as our worst enemy in trading is inside of us!

I hope I replied to all your questions, good luck for you and for me!!
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #243
  • Apr 2, 2025 4:20am Apr 2, 2025 4:20am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Vaše slova jsou tak laskavá a cítím se zde jako profesor, jako učitel, ale považuji se pouze za přeživší na tomto šíleném finančním trhu. Každopádně níže mé odpovědi: 1. Ne, cena DAX FUTURE JUNE je vyšší ve srovnání s cenou DAX CASH INDEX pouze proto, že tvůrci trhu/BigBoys/Institucionální vidí vyšší cenu než dnes v polovině června, kdy aktuální DAX FUTURE vyprší. Musíme také vzít v úvahu většinu dividend/akcií německých společností DAX, které budou obvykle vypláceny mezi květnem/červnem,...

Every day you learn something here, professor.
  • #244
  • Apr 2, 2025 4:34am Apr 2, 2025 4:34am
Quoting czechmademan
{quote} Every day you learn something here, professor.
Yes thats right, my friend!!
and I almost remember every single day I traded here.......so the lessons were fully internalised!

and when you think you've become a Professor here, it's the day when you will loose, probably loose a lot.......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #245
  • Apr 2, 2025 4:40am Apr 2, 2025 4:40am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 274 closed now 1 position 177 for +97 p DAX CFD=+19,5 pips FDXM I remain with 1 DAX CFD 177 See you around/after midday, as I did my morning
No change for me, I keep holding my small DAX CFD 22177 bought this morning on 1st panic sell off wave.

But I deleted additionals, as if they will break today's low we can easily see a 70/100 further fall.
ěf they want panic the markets we should see a retet last monday's low or at best an higher low....

So for now I remain on hold.
Ill back for US open.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #246
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:15am Apr 2, 2025 6:15am
Just went short for 1 FDXS 429
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #247
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:17am Apr 2, 2025 6:17am
So now Im long for 1 DAX CFD 22177 and short for 1 FDXS 22429, lets say a sort of insurance....
Stop at be for FDXS on new break down 22400 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 429.png Size: 5 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #248
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:26am Apr 2, 2025 6:26am
Quoting Brixen
So now Im long for 1 DAX CFD 22177 and short for 1 FDXS 22429, lets say a sort of insurance.... Stop at be for FDXS on new break down 22400 zone. {image}
382now closed FDXS 429 short for +47 p FDXS=+9,5 pips FDXM
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #249
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:27am Apr 2, 2025 6:27am
Few additionals DAX CFDs orders placed in between 2213..and 22070/090 zone for now, while Ikeep holding 22177 DAX CFD
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #250
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:32am Apr 2, 2025 6:32am
I must be careul because high chance they will whisper something about tonight TARIFF TV SHOW (false or real doesnt matter fornow) and so some wild marketmoves on both directions could happen anytime.....

Ill back in an hour, orders as previously indicated
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #251
  • Apr 2, 2025 6:40am Apr 2, 2025 6:40am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Asia, Canada, Australia and European markets will give to Musk only very poor sales and profits, an huge decrease if things dont change. He can only exploit at full speed only the Americans..... {image}
As I wrote 2 days ago, TESLA can only expect a disaster quarter and today data confirmed....now it's in a free fall mode, but DAX dont care about TSLA and it's now on the rise...
we' ll see later
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #252
  • Apr 2, 2025 7:04am Apr 2, 2025 7:04am
First thanks for answering in details as usual and covering all points. The way you write/explain does show your hidden talent of Professor
Quoting Brixen
5. To be a better trader, I can only remain humble and with both feet on the ground when I got profits and thanks every cents gains, as financial market is designed on human weakness, to fool all of us, most of the time, NO WAY!! You must develop a technique in line with yourself, as our worst enemy in trading is inside of us!
Let me start with this. Yes you are humble and that could be one of trader quality that you still here at FF very long time. Otherwise i seen people came and gone in this forum in no time.

Quoting Brixen
2. No, they both move in same way, absolutely in same way, same direction, same trend, they are only different financial instruments linked to main German financial market. In practice if DAX FUTURE fall for 100 pts in 5 minutes, same magnitude and direction you'll see on DAX CASH INDEX in the same time.
Reason i asked that at expiry they both converge to cash price. So time to time they must go opposite direction OR one has to stay there and other come in that direction. Even i noticed that too - same magnitude and direction when i have both chart running. So how come they both come to same price in end. that confused me

Quote
3. Once a PRO trader explained to me that is DAX FUTURE that is the 1st to move, but we are talking of msecs, and I dont remember exactly his explanation.
On my humble small perspective I can only say that while I can see/check in exact way volumetric candles on main FDAX (main DAX FUTURE traded only by BigBoys as nobody can afford his margin account , currently 40k euro for 1 position ovnight) DAX CASH INDEX have not in principle volumes as it's only the average of XETRA DAX40 main German Companies.
In practice 2 days ago after midday I wrote here...
I remember, we talked about FDAX, FDXM, FDXS future contract earlier. Just curious can you show that chart
1) saw enormous volumes on buy side for FDAX at 22200/250 zone
2) FDAX, FDXM, FDXS future contract - because of all different contract, BigBoys would be trading FDAX so it's volume matters more and gives tip of iceberg OR your broker combines all different contract and gives volume (if i make sense here)

Overall i have bit idea now how you trade level to level. What i am trying to figure out, how prices are moving and exchanges and future prices. Would any volume data will help because that data are also after what happened. Have few more questions but have to rush for appointment now.
Be Greedy
Dices Return This Week: na
  • #253
  • Apr 2, 2025 7:10am Apr 2, 2025 7:10am
Quoting Brixen
Few additionals DAX CFDs orders placed in between 2213..and 22070/090 zone for now, while Ikeep holding 22177 DAX CFD
297 moments ago closed last DAX CFD long 177 for +120 p DAX CFD=+24 pips FDXM

FLAT probably till tomorrow
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #254
  • Apr 2, 2025 7:16am Apr 2, 2025 7:16am
Quoting AKCodingEye
First thanks for answering in details as usual and covering all points. The way you write/explain does show your hidden talent of Professor {quote} Let me start with this. Yes you are humble and that could be one of trader quality that you still here at FF very long time. Otherwise i seen people came and gone in this forum in no time. {quote} Reason i asked that at expiry they both converge to cash price. So time to time they must go opposite direction OR one has to stay there and other come in that direction. Even i noticed that too - same magnitude...
I will reply only to 1 point now, because Im not currently at my house, at my desk/PC. So Iwill reply later with specific charts/data.

Regarding the difference between DAX FUTURE and DAX CASH INDEX price, yes you're right.
In practice today is 225 pts difference, when DAX FUTURE started at mid March the difference was 250 pts, at mid April will be 190/200 and so on.
This difference is gradually reducing week per week till next friday 20 June 2025 when the difference will be = zero.
I hope Ive been clear about it.
see you later
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #255
  • Apr 2, 2025 8:37am Apr 2, 2025 8:37am
Just went out.......
ther's a Jackson Browne song that sing " he started young and strong only to SURRENDER"........(from the Pretender, J.Browne)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #256
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:22am Apr 2, 2025 11:22am
This is a reply for AKCODINGEYE

Today's DAX FUTURE data at 20CET (source Eurex official data)

FDAX (main DAX FUTURE) 36500 volumes 564k € nominal value for 1 FDAX Margin account for 1 FDAX ovnight 40k €

FDXM (mini DAX FUTURE) 34500 volumes 113k € nominal value for 1 FDXM Margin account for 1 FDXM ovnight 8k €

FDXS (micro DAX FUTURE) 28000 volumes 22 k € nominal value for 1 FDXS Margin account for 1 FDXS ovnight 1.5k €

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now today's volumes per nominal value give this result:

  1. FDAX 20.586.000.000 €
  2. FDXM 3.898.500.000 €
  3. FDXS 616.000.000 €

As you can easily see there's no game, FDXM and FDXS are peanuts, they dont mean nothing, they are only instruments for retail traders, gamblers, small Funds.
FDXM and FDXS follow in exact way/mode what FDAX (tarded by BIGBOYS is doing)

Thats why I use to look and check only Volumetric candles on main FDAX, when Im at my desk/house.
Here below today's charts for FDAX with volumetric candles where you can easily see they sold at the 9CET open (official open also for XETRA DAX, lets say when real games start every day for the DAX), then around/after around midday to keep panic the market and then there are 2 clear zones where they heavily bought 22390 and 22500 zone.
Those where sensible zones built today.
Finally you can see that volumes decrease in significant way, after 17:35CET, when it's XETRA DAX RTH official close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDAXVOLUMES020425M15.png Size: 25 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #257
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:27am Apr 2, 2025 11:27am
22550/22500 zone now hit, sensible level for DAX FUTURE = 22330/290 for DAX CASH INDEX

I could buy some DAX CFds for tomorrow.....we'll see
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #258
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:32am Apr 2, 2025 11:32am
Quoting Brixen
22550/22500 zone now hit, sensible level for DAX FUTURE = 22330/290 for DAX CASH INDEX I could buy some DAX CFds for tomorrow.....we'll see
29../25..placed few DAX CFDs buy orders.
Tonight it's not the final act of Tariffs it's only the beginning, so counter tariffs will start tomorow and days ahead, so negotiations will start sooner than later.....
we must live and trade with this issue next days/weeks probably months
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #259
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:38am Apr 2, 2025 11:38am
Quoting Brixen
22550/22500 zone now hit, sensible level for DAX FUTURE = 22330/290 for DAX CASH INDEX I could buy some DAX CFds for tomorrow.....we'll see
544 filled 1 FDXS into 1st safe zone previously idnicated
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #260
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:43am Apr 2, 2025 11:43am
Ill back after 1st half MILAN-INTER and Liverpool derby
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
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