The PriceBob Strategy

Also, I also support the use of indicators that serve to highlight either a defined fixed bar, e.g. an opening range indicator or MeBob indicator.

I also would be fine in the use of indicators that highlight inside/outside bars on the five minute chart. My caution with those, however, is that some such indicators will hide whether a particular bar closed as a bull bar or a bear bar, and that information may be appropriate or even necessary in some cases to define and thus identify certain set ups.

Some points from Al Brooks to consider:

"80% of opens have reversals"
in other words MOST breakouts fail...So why trade anORB ? Well...The question then is
Where do most ORBs fail ? 5pts 10 pts 15pts etc and secondly is the next point below. With good risk mgmt AND knowing the
question I just posed..DO you have a way of just taking all the setups using RM to enable you to capture those larger chunks
on those 20% days.?

"First bar of the day is H/L of the day 20% of the time."
Once a week generally the market will trend. That got my brain ticking 3 or 4 yrs ago...How can I take advantage of that
and actually trade it.


"Everyday wants to form H/L of the day early" ( 18 bar probabilities )
This I find can be useful and I will be sharing an idea or two on this in regards to how I use that.

Hi Danger Mouse ! Im basically in the same place as Vidvad on this...Ive tried over ther years every indicator under the sun..and some do work better
than others as filters but what this all comes down to is just taking those initial ORBs as they come and just accepting at least 50% will fail,,,,and thats OK.
My only filter is Major red news at 7am generally and I also do not like FOMC days like today....

Just some quick thoughts this morning

Cheers
Blue

UK afternoon trading the New York morning open.
Correct me if I have drawn this incorrectly Vidvad but we seem to have a breakout of the 5 minute ,ORB each way, and we are now in Mebob zone and waiting?

Exactly.

Oh - and this bit kevin
Hi Danger Mouse ! Im basically in the same place as Vidvad on this...Ive tried over ther years every indicator under the sun..and some do work better
than others as filters but what this all comes down to is just taking those initial ORBs as they come and just accepting at least 50% will fail,,,,and thats OK.
My only filter is Major red news at 7am generally and I also do not like FOMC days like today....

2 wins 1 loss today, i had a loss trading the OR.



I was reading Laura's “roadmap” thread and personally I found very useful the use of moving averages, which from now on I will use as a filter for my OR and MeBob entries.
I will trade only if the price breaks in favor of the moving averages, otherwise I will not trade.
Personally I feel safer trading this way, and surely there will be days when I will not “catch” some trades, I think it is also good not to overtrade.

Some days you just can't get people to color within the lines.

Ok, I'm going to take the rest of the week off from the thread as I am not going to spend any more time posting about this being a FILTER FREE ZONE.

It isn't worth my time to fight this fight.

Very simple request: All talk of "filtering" trade ceases when I return.

Again, I am not anti-indicator in general, but in this thread I am adamantly anti-filter.

If you are reading this thread and still feel that filters are an appropriate contribution you are reading it wrong.

Very disappointed that this has to be said, over and over and over.

Here is today's live trading. I started soon after the open but after the ORB so I missed that trade. I was trading an abridged profit target today because it is FOMC day. Also, these are sim trades (I clearly state as such in the beginning of the video). I did not trade live today as my trading plan has a rule that I do not trade on FOMC days.

Final though to the filter fetishists: If you learn to trade price action based on objectively defined set ups, your filter will cause you to lose out more by missing profitable opportunities than it will ever save you by waving you any losing trades. In other words, price alone beats price + filter over the long run.

I'm not sure why you disliked my post sharing the indicator and made that comment? The indicator is following the original mebob rules and any filters that I added are completely optional.

Anyway, post is deleted. Cheers.

You didn't need to delete the post, only the mention of filters.

Filters are not an option in this thread. That is why I disliked your post. And from this point forward I will dislike any post mentioning filtering trades by making reference to a derivative indicator.

I don't think it is unreasonable to try to keep the thread on point. Anyone who wants to pursue MeBob with moving averages and oscillators is free to start a separate thread to do so.

If you want to share your indicator, that is fine. What I disliked was the explicit mention of using MA's to filter set ups.

I can't be more clear than I have been.

Let's put it like this: If LauraT herself showed up here in this thread and suggested we should add the 8 ema channel to the MeBob or the 200 SMA to filter long form short ORB's, I'd dislike her post as well.

I'd still follow her and I'd still read anything she posts to her Roadmap system thread and her journal. But I don't want that content here because this thread is about trading the 5 minute price action without indicators and with possible fixed time price bars as reference ranges. .

Go to TooSlow's HOLO thread and tell him you want to filter HOLO trades using an ema and see what he says lol

If you were to watch my live trading video from thsi morning I discuss the OR and how I'd have traded either side of it. I did take a long above it for +4 points. Today is turning out to be a much better FOMC day that I have often seen. MeBob short hit for +10, and a MeBob long has come with 5 ticks of a 10 point profit target. I'd have my stop loss at +4 points on the MeBob long if I were in it (I am not).

Nightly MeBob review

Blues Ramblings,,,,,,,,

“Normal thinking does not lead to profitable trading”~Tom Hougaard

Being a Forest Gump type of guy who likes to keep things simple my take on this is......

We all know about system hopping and endless indicator searches and then endless
setting tweaks of the latest greatest indicator,,,,, But why do we do it ?

We want to make money.. But more-so its we want to avoid pain... The pain of losing and the pain
of being wrong. We want to be right...Our egos want us to be right always... From primal beginnings
to a more frontal cortex learning from school. We take tests and we are judged on being correct.
And the more correct you are..you are then judged to be smarter and better ???

But are you really ? We are taught to work hard... Work hard finding more indicators ?

Our normal thinking of being correct and working hard etc coupled with our ego leads us
with our primal thinking and brain to Control Outcomes... We all want to be right and control
the outcome.. It is ingrained in every single one of us for survival.

But Normal thinking does not lead to profitable trading. Bless Tom Hougaard for that statement
and his book The Best Loser Wins.... Because that is the bottom-line here...

Why would I use for ex a 5min ORB when I know 80% of breakouts fail ? It’s simply because
I have gotten to the point where I accept losses like an old friend. They are welcome in my home.
And perhaps you may want to look at them as just a business expense.. All businesses have
expenses...and why should we as traders not have these expenses... All businesses have losses
in one capacity or another.

Embrace the losses...learn from them always yes....But no indicator will ever perform as good as good
old price action for us retail traders.

Normal thinking does not lead to profitable trading....The Best Loser Wins.

And finally if you are serious AND really want to develop a CONSISTENT INCOME trading
then you will watch this Mark Douglas video and do the exercise. And if you do remember this post.


Normal thinking does not lead to profitable trading....

Interesting thread. I hope vidvad doesn't mind me posting an indicator - I promise it's harmless.

All it does is put a rectangle on your chart. I made this a while ago when I was playing around with ranges and now added a bit of code so it can be anchored to a bar.

You just need to set your chart to M5, set useFirstBar to true, then it'll draw a box from this bar, with the height of this bar and the 'length' of 24 hours. Long story short, you can simply mark your 'Mebob' bars with it. You'll need to adjust the start time according to whatever timezone your bucketshop uses of course.

It'll look something like this:




You can also use it to mark arbitrary ranges / times and check if Bob's really the best uncle you can find.

Bollocks, i missed the OII .. Had a long limit iron in the fire and forgot about the FOMC as such .. saw the down-spike and pulled it in a reaction .. The rest of my evening was slightly less than it should have been
Another day today.

Small question wrt the ii, ioi and oii setups/patterns.
Do they come with an expiry bar number? This can probably be found in the appropriate literature but i thought asking the question as such would not hurt ;-)
The reason for the asking lies in the fact that i see them quite regularly and it appears as if a 5-bar extension might be fairly useful. I will test this as well but the question could provide a good starting point.

Tia

Any trading range implies breakout mode. What the inside bars and multiple inside bars do is mark a "triangle" on a smaller time frame. So for i, o-i-i. i-o-i, i-i etc, the entry rule from Brooks is to use a stop order to enter.

Once it extends to 4 or 5 bars, then it is a tight trading range (TTR as Brooks says) and you can enter on stop orders. In those cases, I prefer to wait for a bar to break AND close above or below the range rather than entering on a stop.

It doesn't matter which entry technique a trader chooses so long as the trader is consistent. What you don't want to do is flip back and forth between entry approaches as that is sure to confuse and frustrate your efforts at consistency, imo.

Yesterday, bar 4 broke the opening range high. Had it closed above the ORH, I'd have entered with a market order. Because it closed at or below the ORH, I used a buy stop above the bar's high to enter. Many trader no doubt entered long before me using buy stop orders 1 tick above the ORH. My way will result in less reward on those trades than the breakout traders make. However, my way is a higher probability and will result in a higher win rate than the breakout traders who enter on range breaks rather than wait for close and continue entries.

What I saw during two hour session of UK market - Blues ORB and Vid Mebob. Good today. More testing going forward of UK and US sessions.