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The Swamp

  • #121,521
  • Mar 7, 2025 11:12am Mar 7, 2025 11:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Add: Whenever/wherever the EU tops, I expect 500+ pips down.
Isn't that too far considering the inflation expectations in the US?
  • #121,522
  • Mar 7, 2025 11:25am Mar 7, 2025 11:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} GU ATM 1.2908 Fundamental Analysis: The UK economy is struggling with issues like a weak construction sector and business uncertainty. But the pound is holding up, maybe because big stores are raising wages. Technical Analysis: The pair has been moving a lot but staying in a wide range. Trade Idea: A 300-pip move could happen, but hitting 500 pips would need big news or events. Optimal Entry: Buy near 1.2800 support or sell near 1.3000 resistance. Invalidation Level: If price drops below 1.2700, buying isn’t great. If it breaks above 1.3100,...
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  • #121,523
  • Mar 7, 2025 11:50am Mar 7, 2025 11:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image}
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  • #121,524
  • Mar 7, 2025 11:54am Mar 7, 2025 11:54am
Quoting Jackoboms
{quote} Isn't that too far considering the inflation expectations in the US?
Its all fluid. If there's inflation in the u.s. There is inflation other places that recipate. I dont know the answer. I know where s/r can be. So if I'm wrong. My chance on getting out with a small loss is reasonable, compared to reward potential. Each level I gave is relatively large. If 1/2 are right, its worth the risk. If 1/4 is right, it's worth the risk for me.
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  • #121,525
  • Mar 7, 2025 12:27pm Mar 7, 2025 12:27pm
I'm listening to a top investor talking about private sector jobs being strong. I'm going to do a 180 degree on what was said. Note me for that. For each government lost. The economy losses some. I've known/assumed that for many decades. Now I can look it up on the net. I got better research to go by. According to that research. 10 to 20 private sector jobs are lost. That stands alone. We also have tariffs. That's another added pressure. The tariffs and the jobs can have a stagflation affect. High inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment rates. I lived through this in the 1980s.. It mostly sucks.

 

  1. Government Job Loss Impact – The idea that cutting government jobs leads to broader private sector job losses is supported by economic research. Government spending often supports private businesses through contracts, services, and consumer spending from government employees. Removing that spending can ripple through the economy.
  2. Tariffs Adding Pressure – Tariffs increase costs for businesses and consumers, which can slow economic growth and contribute to inflation.
  3. Stagflation Possibility – If inflation remains high while growth slows and unemployment rises, it mirrors the stagflation scenario of the 1980s. The combination of high prices, high interest rates, and job losses is historically painful for an economy.

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  • #121,526
  • Edited 5:01am Mar 9, 2025 4:42am | Edited 5:01am
Long Position possible entry area idea:
Entry: Upon a pullback to the 1.07800 support level.
Stop Loss: 1.07600 (20 pips below entry).
Take Profit: 1.08600 (80 pips above entry), achieving a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio.

Looking for this early week. The entry somewhere in the 760/80 area. It may retest 877 again. But to rise, it needs to sustain above 877. Monday 869 may attract pa. It does have support 800. Friday it did not return to 817. I view that as a bullish sign. Its bullish into 877. The last place it went after testing 877 was down. That may allow some slip back below 800. As long as above 760. I think it returns close to 877 or +. I chose 860/80. Because some short term support. Its over 100 pip retrace. I think bulls wait for support, and bears closing near support may allow 780/60. I just like to buy some exhaustion, like selling exhaustion at 0877.
Resistance:

  1. 1.09000: A significant resistance level.
  2. 1.09400: A higher resistance level.
  3. 1.10000: A major resistance level.
  4. 1.0877 can be also


I'm assuming the support at 1.0780/60 will get pa back above 1.0800. 1.800 can resist. I'm not ruling out the high is in, since it did test 1.0877. I did short it and did tp already. I'm giving the usd outflow some extra precaution. If not I would had held the short for 500 plus.
I'm also not ruling out a rise back to 877 area to form a double top.

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  • #121,527
  • Mar 9, 2025 5:07am Mar 9, 2025 5:07am
Quoting gatorinla
Long Position possible entry area idea: Entry: Upon a pullback to the 1.07800 support level. Stop Loss: 1.07600 (20 pips below entry). Take Profit: 1.08600 (80 pips above entry), achieving a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio. Looking for this early week. The entry somewhere in the 760/80 area. It may retest 877 again. But to rise, it needs to sustain above 877. Monday 869 may attract pa. It does have support 800. Friday it did not return to 817. I view that as a bullish sign. Its bullish into 877. The last place it went after testing 877 was down. That may...
I already said things about 877. Its 23 pip from 900. So you can see 877/900 is the focus. Some slip to 920 may prevent a stop out. I would zoom in on a smaller time to find a good entry. The entry may be better with a smaller stop loss. I got a 1 to 4 R/R for about 80 pips here. But it could be 500+ pips. It just depends on the outflow.
Short Position:

  1. Entry: If RSI indicates overbought conditions near the 1.09000 resistance level.
  2. Stop Loss: 1.09200 (20 pips above entry).
  3. Take Profit: 1.08200 (80 pips below entry), achieving a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio.

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  • #121,528
  • Mar 9, 2025 5:45am Mar 9, 2025 5:45am
GU.
Trading Strategy:
1.29500: A significant resistance level.
Entry: At the 1.29500/73 resistance level (if and only if, your personal analysis allows).
Stop Loss: 1.2975 (20 pips above entry).
Take Profit: 1.28500 (100 pips below entry), achieving a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio.
I would zoom in and find the better entry on a smaller chart.
The month average range is 2973. This is a area that can allow a 100 pip retrace. It was very close Friday. You need to have some sort of agreement you use to confirm. This is just a place to look with potential.
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  • #121,529
  • Mar 9, 2025 9:28am Mar 9, 2025 9:28am
The dot-com bubble
Speculation in internet-related businesses, occurred roughly from 1995 to 2000, peaking on March 10, 2000, before bursting and causing a crash from March 11, 2000, to October 9, 2002.
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  • #121,530
  • Edited 4:52pm Mar 9, 2025 3:28pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
Long Position possible entry area idea: Entry: Upon a pullback to the 1.07800 support level. Stop Loss: 1.07600 (20 pips below entry). Take Profit: 1.08600 (80 pips above entry), achieving a 1:4 risk-to-reward ratio. Looking for this early week. The entry somewhere in the 760/80 area. It may retest 877 again. But to rise, it needs to sustain above 877. Monday 869 may attract pa. It does have support 800. Friday it did not return to 817. I view that as a bullish sign. Its bullish into 877. The last place it went after testing 877 was down. That may...
It appears to be heading to 877.. It may blow higher. It went above 877 earlier. But this is a place it may fall on some weekly data. I'm not saying it can hit 900.. It would need to sustain above 0877 in my view. If the second tap is lower than the first, possibly at 0877. That could be the dt with the #2 try lower. I had hoped it would try for 0780 first. It didnt cost me a dime to wait for either. 869 is close. If it didnt make 869 now. I would like the 780/60 long more.

added later> It has made 869 now. To go higher it would need to be sustained above 877. I'm more neutral here atm at 859. I refuse to buy unless its sustained above 877, It could be rejected at 0900/43 area. If it had a choice 780/60, and hope for just under 1.1. The same levels from last week.
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  • #121,531
  • Mar 9, 2025 4:54pm Mar 9, 2025 4:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It appears to be heading to 877.. It may blow higher. It went above 877 earlier. But this is a place it may fall on some weekly data. I'm not saying it can hit 900.. It would need to sustain above 0877 in my view. If the second tap is lower than the first, possibly at 0877. That could be the dt with the #2 try lower. I had hoped it would try for 0780 first. It didnt cost me a dime to wait for either. 869 is close. If it didnt make 869 now. I would like the 780/60 long more. added later> It has made 869 now. To go higher it would need to...
I left a pending short last week at 880
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  • #121,532
  • Mar 9, 2025 5:10pm Mar 9, 2025 5:10pm
GU.. With 21 days left on the quarter. 1.2967 is an average quarter if it continues higher. The high so far near 1.2945.
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  • #121,533
  • Mar 9, 2025 5:14pm Mar 9, 2025 5:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
GU.. With 21 days left on the quarter. 1.2967 is an average quarter if it continues higher. The high so far near 1.2945. {image} {image}
The eu is above the quarter average at 646 pips. so far its moved 711pips. About 10% over average
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  • #121,534
  • Mar 10, 2025 4:59am Mar 10, 2025 4:59am
I cancelled the longs that, I had pending. A b/o North is what the recent trend since mid Jan has as momentum. Since the EU cant get a sustained foothold over 1.0877. I'm placing small shorts with the 500+ pips in mind. If it manages to take 877 and hold it, I will probably be wrong. If correct partially 0730 area could support some.
GU 2810 area.. Both may be short term, with a bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #121,535
  • Mar 10, 2025 5:08am Mar 10, 2025 5:08am
Quoting gatorinla
I cancelled the longs that, I had pending. A b/o North is what the recent trend since mid Jan has as momentum. Since the EU cant get a sustained foothold over 1.0877. I'm placing small shorts with the 500+ pips in mind. If it manages to take 877 and hold it, I will probably be wrong. If correct partially 0730 area could support some. GU 2810 area.. Both may be short term, with a bounce.
Please is it safe to go short on EU and GU?
  • #121,536
  • Mar 10, 2025 5:09am Mar 10, 2025 5:09am
Quoting LoneTrader1
The dot-com bubble Speculation in internet-related businesses, occurred roughly from 1995 to 2000, peaking on March 10, 2000, before bursting and causing a crash from March 11, 2000, to October 9, 2002. {image}
Definitely in a car loan bubble.
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  • #121,537
  • Mar 10, 2025 6:02am Mar 10, 2025 6:02am
Quoting Otgee
{quote} Please is it safe to go short on EU and GU?
Its never safe. I have a s/l less than 0.25%. That's the only way to protect an account. Have a reasonable s/l. There is no sure things
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  • #121,538
  • Edited 6:37am Mar 10, 2025 6:15am | Edited 6:37am
GJ watching if scenario, Gap at 191.26 potential support highlighted. May not come that far but who knows... Previous day and week was green.
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  • #121,539
  • Mar 10, 2025 9:21am Mar 10, 2025 9:21am
all under day 200. The dow may close today under the 200.
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  • #121,540
  • Mar 10, 2025 9:24am Mar 10, 2025 9:24am
Quoting gatorinla
all under day 200. The dow may close today under the 200. {image} {image} {image}
VIX
On the gold cross side
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