always learning
{quote} I have picked up a random dates for EUR on 1Hr and going by the rules, i marked these trades. I have marked the vertical lines so you can check it out for yourself. I use only NY times for charting. Total 7 trades, 5 wins and 2 losses. BTW, I have only marked for 2Rs as that is what I try and aim for. Looking at these trades, are you saying even with whipsaw you can't extract 1R trades using this method? comon if I was targeting just 1R, I am sure I would have got a better scoreboard than what i post. Edit: I think the previous screenshot...
I trade at work in between parts I Run on a robot. The first 3 weeks my journal was full of "woulda been" wins. And a bunch of losses. Those losses almost always hit 1Reward. Sometimes 2Reward! but having an exit strategy when your not sitting staring at the charts the whole time is difficult for me and those wins would always revert back pretty quickly and turn into losers!
So this last week I've been journaling with a stop loss and take profit of just 1:1. With a simple 1:1 R I was able to capture 82% wins. I'm sure these numbers will even out to a more respectful 50%-55% but it seems 1 can even be profitable with just a straight 1:1R with this method.
That to me is the holy grail lol. It's a positive expectant rate and that is the whole point! Positive! I'm ok with those losses now! As long as I know that the outcome is in my favor it makes those losses less fearsome.
For the follow few more weeks I will try a few different variations of the RR. 1:2, .5:1, and so on and see what can come out of it.
But for now, getting rid of the greed(let the winners run to the moon!) and the fear (NO IM LOSING!!!!) and just letting the strategy guide me with a 1:1 has so far shown profitable.
Don't get greedy.
Also, rethink what the holy grail is.
To me, holy grail is just a strategy that gives me better odds to win than to lose.
Thank you RH and rose-arm(I know that's not your name but that's what my head says Everytime I see your posts) Couldn't have done it without this thread. RH for the thread and rose for the scorecard. Your scorecards are very very motivating!
When I first came to this thread I had probably 47 different indicators, I had no idea what they were doing, and I was trading solely forex and that's it.
Now I have 1 simple template and I'm pushing more towards futures. Although I do trade the major future currencies if I get a signal.
But this method has so far proven very useful for me when trading Gold, oil, NQ, Spy, (Russel and Dow as well but I only have them on for overall sentiment) Bitcoin, eth, and the 6major currencies.That's my watchlist.
Before I had a watch list of like 80 pairs
It's easier on my brain to hone these down to just a few. I'm able to pay more attention to different symbols and their tendencies.
Anyways again, thank you.
Cannot stress the journaling enough. I don't even analyze it. You can take a screen shot and upload it to chat gpt. The more info the better. I write down: Symbol, start/end time, date, position, size, R:R, every position of every indicator (this parts the hard part but probably the most valuable) and thoughts at the time of trade.
Upload those to chat gpt for analysis and it can give you insights into something you could have easily over looked. Pretty cool way to analyze your journal for sure.
Ok I'm done talking now.
Sometimes after a successful day, I sit there and think to my self "Damn man, I'm so glad I was that one starfish that he threw back into the water!"
If you know, you know.
Trying to learn how to learn how to teach a robot how to learn
{quote} I like your attitude! I think just aiming for a very good and safe 1:1 for starters is what RH said in his #1 post anyways. Build your confidence from there. I'm doing that as well as I'm starting to trade this system in demo for 2 weeks. Just need to trust the setups and your judgement in my view. Those 5R couldabeens is ok to miss for a starter right?
Trying to learn how to learn how to teach a robot how to learn
- #9,927
- Mar 9, 2025 11:20am Mar 9, 2025 11:20am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trade What U See Not What You Think | 1,760 Posts
{quote} I believe so, But one of the turtle traders talked about a statistic once, saying something along the lines of: " 90% of my winnings came from only 5% of my trades" something along those lines. That if they would have removed some of those 5% big winners, they would have been in the red entirely. So yes and no. Those big winners make up for alot of losers, but those big winners are few and far between. Im sure those will come over time and experience. When Im fishing at the lake I dont need to catch a whale, just need to catch something...
Here's a close up so you can see just how close the house is to the lake.
It had glass windows from floor to ceiling facing the lake. As I sat there each day trading and staring at the lake, I would often think about how trading and fishing had a lot of similarities between them. Think about it...like where you fish, when you fish, how you fish, why you fish, what type of fish you fish for, the excitement of catching the fish, the boring parts when you aren't catching any fish, the fish that you snagged but get off the hook and got away, etc., etc., etc.
I am writing a book for my daughter in order to pass on much of my "life" knowledge to her as best I can. It's about quotes that I have created, stories and poems that I have written, life advice, etc. Things that I have written and collected over decades.
After I started writing/compiling the book, I realized just how cool it was what I was doing because I can't imagine how valuable such a book would be to me if my father had written a similar type book for me (and my sister). I would suggest everyone should write such a book for their kids.
Anyway, I am going to share a short story that I wrote that's in the book, and you should think about how it can relate to trading.
The Brim and the Bass
One day two fishermen went out on a lake in a small Jon boat to catch some fish for dinner, both were excited for how many fish they would each catch.
In this particular lake, there were only two types of fish. Large fish called “Bass” and much smaller fish called “Brim”.
Over the course of a few hours, each man caught a mixture of both types of fish, but one man threw back all the Brim he caught and only kept the much larger Bass.
Meanwhile, the other man kept all of the fish he caught.
After a few hours of fishing, and with the morning sun now bearing down on them, they both decided to call it quits for the day and head back to shore.
When they arrived back on shore, they compared how many fish they had each caught. Both men had only caught one Bass each, however the man who kept all of the fish he caught had nearly a full fishing bucket, whereas the man who threw all of the Brim back had a nearly empty bucket.
The Moral of the Story...
The Brim are what feeds you, and if you happen to catch any Bass, they are just the “icing on the cake”.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
- #9,928
- Mar 9, 2025 11:37am Mar 9, 2025 11:37am
{quote} This reminds me of something that I'll share. I used to have a really nice and large home office that was as close as 17' from a 9 acre lake. My house was the one on the right side of the lake in between the 2 times where it says: Georgetown Rd. Here's what it looks like to provide some insight on what I am talking about below the images. {image} Here's a close up so you can see just how close the house is to the lake. {image} It had glass windows from floor to ceiling facing the lake. As I sat there each day trading and staring at the lake,...
The fish story is beautiful. Surely wish I could read that book your gonna pass along! Such a wonderful idea as well. Great way to pass on knowledge than just blurting it out everyday in hopes they remember everything. I have children myself and stuff like this is very inspiring. Might not be able to feed a family on one brim, but when you have a bucket full it may be a different story.
Again thanks for sharing!
Trying to learn how to learn how to teach a robot how to learn
- #9,929
- Mar 9, 2025 2:29pm Mar 9, 2025 2:29pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trade What U See Not What You Think | 1,760 Posts
{quote} Thank you for sharing that! Both the story and the house pictures. The pictures of the house are motivating cause that's my dream right there! It's a simple dream, but my dream. House by water. Preferably I want a house on the side of one of those beautiful 10ft deep rocky streams in northern Oregon or southern Washington!
It also taught me that how much I make trading now is "enough" which saves me a lot of stress that I don't need by trading much larger in the way that I used to.
The Parable of the Mexican Fisherman and the Banker
An American investment banker was taking a much-needed vacation in a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. The boat had several large, fresh fish in it.
The investment banker was impressed by the quality of the fish and asked the Mexican how long it took to catch them.
The Mexican replied, “Only a little while.”
The banker then asked why he didn’t stay out longer and catch more fish?
The Mexican fisherman replied he had enough to support his family’s immediate needs.
The American then asked “But what do you do with the rest of your time?”
The Mexican fisherman replied, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos: I have a full and busy life, señor.”
The investment banker scoffed, “I am an Ivy League MBA, and I could help you. You could spend more time fishing and with the proceeds buy a bigger boat, and with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats until eventually you would have a whole fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to the middleman you could sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You could control the product, processing and distribution.”
Then he added, “Of course, you would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City where you would run your growing enterprise.”
The Mexican fisherman asked, “But señor, how long will this all take?”
To which the American replied, “15-20 years.”
“But what then?” asked the Mexican.
The American laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich. You could make millions.”
“Millions, señor? Then what?”
To which the investment banker replied, “Then you would retire. You could move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
- #9,938
- Mar 10, 2025 6:11am Mar 10, 2025 6:11am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trade What U See Not What You Think | 1,760 Posts
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
- #9,940
- Mar 10, 2025 7:53am Mar 10, 2025 7:53am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trade What U See Not What You Think | 1,760 Posts
US100 ... Power of EMAs and breakout Entries (TMS Oscillator) {image}
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works