EURUSD only

Meanwhile, on H4...

1. Watch: 1.0381/91 area roughly for bearish signs!
2. Yesterday I tried my chances for ~1.0348 resistance but market didn't respect that level at all..
3. Now... today I will look for a good sell entry point at the rim of the inner ellipse as soon as I get my bearish clues...
4. Current candle is still inside ellipse, but next candle might drop out and therefore I expect nice volatility right after this H4 candle closes..
5. Overall: I am bullish but I expect a bounce down as I did yesterday and must try the odds once again...

Best wishes

When price comes around 1.03950..sentiment begins to change slowly...that upward move is to trap for more to sell around there...price might shakeoff sell trades near there to continue with upward move to 1.04900..

I expect more sell signals to appear than buy signals...of which more sells will get trapped

A real complex correction / bounce look like here. Let's see if 0376 is cap for now.

Beginner here

When you're trading with spreads, do you subtract spread from your TP and/or pending orders or just leave it and let it play out as is

according to Fridays NFP release payroll rose then unemployment droped...which is a sign for more consumer spending and strong economy...then employment declined in the minining,oil and gas extraction..which of course production got cut then consumption got high...for me usd cpi can likely strike down then resume to upward move later...yesterday sells might have a second chance to survive b4 being left in stuck mode.

Hi guys
There may be some declines even to 1.0316 but conditions are ripe for a strong bullish move.

In my opinion, there is no sure sell until the price reaches the 1.0454 range.
The most ideal entry point, if possible, would be 1.0316

Comprehensive Analysis of Today’s CPI News & Forecasts (12 February 2025)

Key CPI Data Releases
United States:

1. January 2025 CPI Report:
   1. Headline CPI: Rose 0.3% month-on-month (vs. 0.4% in December 2024), with the annual rate holding steady at 2.9%.
   2. Core CPI (excludes food/energy): Increased 0.3% monthly, with the annual rate easing slightly to 3.1% (from 3.2% in December).
   3. Key Drivers:
      1. Core Goods: New/used car prices and apparel contributed to upward pressure.
      2. Services: Housing costs rose, but at a slower pace, while energy prices moderated due to lower gasoline costs

China:

1. January 2025 CPI:
   1. Headline CPI: Increased 0.8% year-on-year, driven by seasonal factors (e.g., Lunar New Year demand) and policy stimulus.
   2. Core CPI (excludes food/energy): Rose 0.5%, reflecting gradual recovery in service prices (e.g., tourism, transportation).
   3. Key Drivers:
      1. Food Prices: Stabilized after months of decline, with pork prices showing modest recovery.
      2. Policy Impact: Subsidies for consumer goods (e.g., home appliances) and "cash-for-clunkers" programs boosted demand

Forecasts and Trends
Global Inflation Outlook:

1. U.S.:
   1. 2025 Forecast: Analysts expect headline CPI to ease to 2.5% by mid-2025 due to base effects and moderating energy prices, while core inflation remains sticky near 3.0%.
   2. Fed Policy: Markets now price a 43% chance of a rate cut by June, down from earlier expectations, as strong labor data (e.g., 143k jobs added in January) supports a hawkish stance.

China:

1. 2025 Inflation Target: Lowered to 2% (from 3%), reflecting a policy shift toward reflation and demand recovery.
2. PPI (Producer Prices): Improved marginally, with December 2024 PPI declining 2.3% year-on-year (vs. -2.4% forecast), signaling tentative industrial recovery

Policy Implications
United States:

1. Fed’s Stance: Powell’s recent testimony emphasized caution, noting inflation remains above the 2% target. Markets now expect 1–2 rate cuts in 2025, contingent on sustained disinflation.
2. Tariff Risks: Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel/aluminum and EU goods could exacerbate inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy path.

China:

1. Monetary Easing: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may cut reserve requirements or interest rates to stimulate demand, aligning with the Central Economic Work Conference’s call for "reasonable price rebounds".
2. Structural Challenges: Weak consumer confidence and deflationary pressures (e.g., PPI in negative territory for 27 months) persist, requiring targeted fiscal measures.

Market Reactions

1. U.S. Dollar (DXY): Strengthened slightly to 108.3 post-CPI release, as sticky inflation reduced near-term rate-cut bets.
2. Equities: Mixed reactions; tech stocks dipped on higher Treasury yields, while energy sectors gained from rising oil prices.
3. China’s Yuan (CNY): Weakened to 7.33/USD, reflecting deflation risks and capital outflows.

Critical Factors to Monitor

1. U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb 13–14): Key indicators of economic resilience.
2. China’s Q4 GDP (Feb 14): Expected to highlight sluggish growth (~4.5% YoY).
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating U.S.-China/EU trade disputes and Middle East conflicts.

For now just don't forget that 1.040x area is still the main resistance on weekly.... Don't put your hopes too much on bulls... Still too early!

long-term price still looks bearish....but short-term sell trades might get stuck

Scenario, what has played out since the open. this week after another gap down. Critical confusion area. We are at an all time mid point in PA. Pull back due to continue to 0430-0440 to finish correction. at this point We are are in a deep correction 4th wave in 4 wave. very complex playout. SHORT HIGH BUY LOW!
Pullback should last till 0330

I never understand why some people on these forums leave out the timeframe whenever talking about certain levels...

Anyways... based on weekly --> 1.0401 area is big channel entry/exit point. We are still below it.

This level is of upmost importance. Because bulls want to jump back in. It creates motivation. Therefore, watch pa behavior whenever we come near to it!

*1.0463 sits higher, and therefore I see it as irrelevant for now...

Fully agree... Most traders are impatient to wait until bulls reach the retest zone...

*As an example I added my retest zone on H1

local correction has gone further (38.2 -> 78.6) ... wanna see buy zone @ .0260

Well I have to say, the range has been just awful today!

...pending positions | H1 chart | H8 custom candles - midday London

Looking for an entry at the bullish order block below today´s opening price @1.03612

...updated positions:

Save yesterday in a minute