Mental9ty Trading Journal

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Jan 6, 2025

We’ll be entering a data-heavy week post-holiday, but I think the focus is squarely on labor market and inflation indicators but mostly NFP on Friday. As this is a new calendar year we might see some new business capital/investment deployed. I did a 3 MN candle analysis and I still expect that the US Dollar continues higher, but we may get some pullback first. We also have to understand what the market sentiment is and what to expect once President-Elect Trump is sworn in and we get a flavour of what turbulence to expect. I still remember getting SL’d multiple times just by his tweets.

Anyway, these are just my thoughts.


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Jan 13, 2025

Last week the surge in US jobs made it less likely that the Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark interest rate anytime soon, as there was less urgency to stoke the economy and protect the job market from mass layoffs. this was after the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December.


Next week is packed with what could be market moving events, especially for traders interested in the U.S. dollar, British pound, and Australian dollar. Kicking off the week, the U.S. earnings season begins with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup reporting their quarterly results. Eyes will be watching the key inflation data, including the CPI and PPI reports for insights into price trends and the Fed's policy direction. Looking at other data, I see that market sentiment might be slowly moving to risk off, so I will be looking to position myself accordingly.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 20 Jan, 2025
The week kicks off with Donald Trump's Inauguration on Monday (US Bank Holiday), which could set the tone for market sentiment given the potential for policy shifts. We don't have any inflation data this week but there were signs that the Fed may be a little more dovish than they were at the last FOMC.

I am seeing signs that there may be a correction in the DXY before we continue the rally. The question is if that occurs and for how long. I still remain bullish on the USD over the longer run.

You might also know that Trump posted on X early morning of 18 Jan, on his new crypto meme coin which has since gone up many thousands of percent. Imagine what happens with regard to markets or other geopolitical events. This is why it would be worthy of keeping an eye on what he mentions on social media as this could be reported much later on mainstream news.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 27 Jan, 2025
This coming week will be a busy red folder week with key rate decisions from central banks, we have US and EU GDP, Mag 7 earnings and with China taking a holiday this week, it might be a reason for higher volatility as they wont be in the market. Last week I took some dollar pairs shorts, but they were short lived as we saw a lot of surprising news following President Trump’s Executive Order signing as well as him talking about what he was interested in doing in terms of tariffs and land renaming.
Although the market pushed higher, I am still biased short on USD pairs and now waiting at higher levels where I think more bears are waiting to short. The Yen however, looks like it may be poised for more upside (check price action on Monthly).
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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 03 Feb, 2025
The coming week will be a balancing act between strong economic signals and rising political risks. We have US PMIs, BOE rate release, but eyes will be on US NFP. While we have this incoming, there are also the geopolitical risks of the recent US tariffs that caused some market stir. The US Fed will also have to think about how this impacts policy and adjust accordingly so that it fills its mandate. Last week I was caught out just after President Trump signed the executive orders and we saw prices move lower as we saw flows into safehaven assets.

I think we’ll have an interesting week ahead and we’ll see an increase of flows into safehaven assets and potentially an upward price in gold as protection.


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 10 Feb, 2025
This week will mostly be about inflation and the Trump tariff situation which could spark an increase of trade wars which could cause a flight to safety into the arms of the USD. Fed Chair Powell has two speeches that could impact markets in my opinion, so would be worth keeping an eye on those. Outside the U.S., there’s the UK GDP release on Thursday, as well as inflation updates from China and Switzerland, which could affect global risk sentiment.
I’m seeing signs that we may be starting to see the beginnings of a market correction (S&P 500 for example). I remain bearish on USD and JPY pairs.
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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 17 Feb, 2025

Next week looks very busy and there are some key events that could drive markets. The most important I think will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, which will provide insights into the U.S. Fed’s thinking on interest rates and the U.S. economy. Any signals of rate cuts or concerns about inflation could impact the U.S. dollar (weaken). Additionally, interest rate decisions from the RBA and the RBNZ, especially if central banks signal more rate cuts. Not forgetting the German election on Sunday 23 which I think will impact the EUR, as well as the interpretation of geopolitical events that can change the trading landscape. Look at the charts, its not a favourable environment for my style of trading because we need to settle into a modus operand, which is to say that I need the market to settle into the new US administration, so that global markets can give us a clear direction on money flow.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 24 Feb, 2025

This week is not sooo busy for news, but some important events to look out for as they could be market-moving. We have US unemployment as well as the important US PCE inflation report which is the US Fed’s favourite measure of inflation.

I’m seeing signs of what could be a market pullback and I think the USD might be the biggest puncher in the ring. The euro and pound on the other hand, are wobbly; the euro’s facing a possible slump to parity. if growth tanks, while the sterling’s getting hit by UK economic problems and a bobbing and weaving USD.

One other thing to look at is the JPY as it looks like it could be in a position to continue surging due to monetary policy expectations.



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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 03 Mar, 2025

This week, the U.S. stock market will likely trend downward or sideways with choppy trading. Tariff uncertainty and the looming jobs report could spook investors, dragging down indices like the S&P 500. However, any positive surprises—like strong job numbers or tariff delays—could spark a short-lived rally. For me, it’s a wait-and-see game, but the mood is cautious.

The U.S.-China trade war is back, and it’s not just talk. The tariffs are real and could escalate if China fights back with its own moves. Europe’s nervous too; the ECB might cut rates to keep its economy afloat, but that could weaken the euro. Plus, any flare-up in places like Russia-Ukraine or the Middle East could spike oil prices or spook markets further.

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