Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 726 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Planetary cycles, astrological theory of cycles of the markets 510 replies

Forecast Forex using Numeric Cycles and Astrology Cycles 38 replies

Planetary Cycles... Plotting Cycles into the Future 0 replies

Market Waves are NOT Cycles 8 replies

Waves/Trends/Cycles 0 replies

Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
Exit Attachments

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #14,501
  • Jan 22, 2025 11:23pm Jan 22, 2025 11:23pm
New version of CMA Channels indicator.

1. I've updated to Pinescript latest version
2. I've changed the CMA flip points to flip lines that project into the future. They look similar to FLD's but they indicate the point that price needs to cross to make the relevant CMA flip it's direction.
Being able to see them into the future gives you the ability to determine whether CMA direction changes are likely to occur.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/v...le-cma-length/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 77 KB
  • #14,502
  • Edited 12:43am Jan 23, 2025 12:33am | Edited 12:43am
How to use the NEW flip point lines.

The possibility exists that BTC could form a double top here (white CMA would need to rollover). What would price have to do for this to occur?

1. Draw a dotted white line on the chart to show the possible rollover of the white CMA while still complying with the rule of enclosing existing price action.
2. Check at what point that line changes from rising to falling (ie the flip point). The flip point for this line is 60 days from the end of the white CMA.
3. Measure 60 days from today into the future and see where it meets the flip point line.

This point in the future is where price will need to be for the CMA to turn down as you've drawn it from number 1 above.

You can see that even if that did happen the aqua CMA256 is still a long way from price so it would still be rising at that point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 95 KB
  • #14,503
  • Jan 24, 2025 6:48am Jan 24, 2025 6:48am
last time parisboy was off for a while was in oct./2024?!
  • #14,504
  • Jan 24, 2025 8:14am Jan 24, 2025 8:14am
Cable h4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable h4.jpg Size: 251 KB
Stick to the plan!
  • #14,505
  • Jan 24, 2025 3:24pm Jan 24, 2025 3:24pm
Quoting tmpascoe
New version of CMA Channels indicator. 1. I've updated to Pinescript latest version 2. I've changed the CMA flip points to flip lines that project into the future. They look similar to FLD's but they indicate the point that price needs to cross to make the relevant CMA flip it's direction. Being able to see them into the future gives you the ability to determine whether CMA direction changes are likely to occur. https://www.tradingview.com/script/v...le-cma-length/ {image}
Very excited to see this update, Terry!

I look forward to us all sharing the great ideas and progress that comes from this!
  • #14,506
  • Edited Jan 25, 2025 9:54pm Jan 24, 2025 10:21pm | Edited Jan 25, 2025 9:54pm
This price action is still a strong possibility.

To negate it, price must convincingly break out through the top of the aqua channel.

(PS I need to correct this because price could stay close to the aqua channel drawn here and still continue higher as per my next post below)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 78 KB
  • #14,507
  • Edited 9:55pm Jan 25, 2025 9:35pm | Edited 9:55pm
BTCUSD_(1mn)_20250126_0632
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD_(1mn)_20250126_0632.jpg Size: 344 KB

Edit
BTCUSD(45mn)_20250126_0640
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(45mn)_20250126_0640.jpg Size: 193 KB
Edit
BTCUSD(Day)_20250126_0650
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(Day)_20250126_0650.jpg Size: 404 KB
  • #14,508
  • Jan 26, 2025 7:44pm Jan 26, 2025 7:44pm
Bullish v bearish alternatives. Bearish not fatal atm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 79 KB
  • #14,509
  • Edited Jan 27, 2025 7:40am Jan 26, 2025 9:52pm | Edited Jan 27, 2025 7:40am
BTCUSD(3mn)_20250127_0648
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(3mn)_20250127_0648.jpg Size: 520 KB
On the 3minits the bearish spread is not stopped.

( Sur le 3mn la propagation baissière n'est pas stoppée.)
Edit
BTCUSD(5mn)_20250127_0700
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(5mn)_20250127_0700.jpg Size: 392 KB


BTCUSD(4H)_20250127_0707
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(4H)_20250127_0707.jpg Size: 404 KB

Edit
BTCUSD(3H)_20250127_1632
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BTCUSD(3H)_20250127_1632.jpg Size: 484 KB


It's sporty
  • #14,510
  • Jan 27, 2025 11:30am Jan 27, 2025 11:30am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 99 KB
  • #14,511
  • Jan 27, 2025 2:53pm Jan 27, 2025 2:53pm


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #14,512
  • Edited 8:19pm Jan 27, 2025 8:02pm | Edited 8:19pm
Interesting that the "flip lines" are in fact the same as the FLDs but they're a full cycle out from price. According to Hurst, when price crosses the FLD it is halfway to its target, so this is also the point where the FLD peaks or troughs, meaning when the CMA flattens price is also halway to its next peak/trough.

Also note how the FLDs/flip lines provide support/resistance to price.

I'm interested to see what others have identified.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 79 KB
  • #14,513
  • Jan 27, 2025 8:57pm Jan 27, 2025 8:57pm
----/
Quoting blueRocket
BTCUSD(Norm)_20250128_0535 {image} Edit BTCUSD_20250128_0548 {image}
  • #14,514
  • Edited 2:42am Jan 28, 2025 2:29am | Edited 2:42am
Quoting tmpascoe
(...) three CMA extensions (...)
If the future CMA deviates from the extension I've drawn then these prices won't be accurate.
{image}
Hard to define if there is "propagation" of increase or not.
But it's possible to watch it precisely to react quickly.
(just an opinion which I try to put into practice.)
  • #14,515
  • Jan 28, 2025 12:18pm Jan 28, 2025 12:18pm
forget the arrows but the channel is downside
usdchf 15min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 31 KB
  • #14,516
  • Jan 28, 2025 12:29pm Jan 28, 2025 12:29pm
Quoting oo7rai
forget the arrows but the channel is downside usdchf 15min {image}
Hi Oozrai, i dont know how to text you, sorry to bother you here, i need your help, as i seen you did before to combine an indicator, for some reason these 2 indicators just only display one indicator vice versa, so i need to combine it or can you fix so both can display together in one chart. as attached picture i have to do like that, its better if i can view it just in one chart, if you agree, i will send the file, thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 Indicators.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #14,517
  • Jan 29, 2025 1:28am Jan 29, 2025 1:28am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 30 KB



has anyone calculated the probability of return?
  • #14,518
  • Jan 29, 2025 5:41pm Jan 29, 2025 5:41pm
Bearish scenario (red track) is based on the white, blue and aqua CMAs I've drawn. Bullish scenario is still possible as long as we stay above the yellow VTL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 86 KB
  • #14,519
  • Edited 7:43pm Jan 29, 2025 6:20pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting tmpascoe
Bearish scenario (red track) is based on the white, blue and aqua CMAs I've drawn. Bullish scenario is still possible as long as we stay above the yellow VTL. {image}
After drawing possible CMAs on the chart as I've done above, you can then use the "flip lines" to determine where price must be in the future for those CMAs to remain valid.
If the price deviates from your projection then the CMA is incorrect. You could then adjust the CMA to match actual price points.

Unfortunately, this only works if price is crossing or likely to cross a flip line.
  • #14,520
  • Jan 29, 2025 9:05pm Jan 29, 2025 9:05pm
Quoting Fractales
{quote} {image} has anyone calculated the probability of return?
The work has been done for us!

Forex Wave Theory

These posts from Parisboy:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13120674
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13120678
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 41 KB
13 traders viewing now