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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #461
  • Jul 24, 2007 11:37pm Jul 24, 2007 11:37pm
Quoting Protei
Hmm really interesting.. so then i will also try to use old signals... becos usually after we break through the level of support (for short) there might be no signal at this moment but of course if we go through this level we should add some lots. Price for 100% will go lower...
Well to avoid some mistakes or misunderstanding I'd like to underline.

Each signal, old or new, must be analyzed by itself in context of the pair and current conditions.

Signals cannot be traded mechanically (nevertheless how strong I wish this).
and a signal does not lead to an order.
  • #462
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:26am Jul 25, 2007 12:26am
Thanks Isto for the explanation!

So here how the trade turns... looks very interesting and of course maybe we have a nice place for a long position?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNGS.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #463
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:27am Jul 25, 2007 12:27am
And also chart of EESR... on the break of Bullish DB i bought 1 lots... AC is going up!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EESR.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #464
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:51am Jul 25, 2007 12:51am
Quoting Protei
Thanks Isto for the explanation!

So here how the trade turns... looks very interesting and of course maybe we have a nice place for a long position?
I think the market will retest the level just taken and if a long position is opened you've to be prepared to close it fast
Attached Image
  • #465
  • Jul 25, 2007 12:53am Jul 25, 2007 12:53am
Here is a sample of an old signal I've taken...
Attached Image
  • #466
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:43am Jul 25, 2007 5:43am
The only signal the I know works 100% from this system is the first signal. Which is the counter trend trade, they call is wiseman1, I call it the rubber band effect.

Looking at eurusd right now, the price has left the alligator in 1 swift move down, and if you imagine a rubber band around the alligator and the price, the move your stretch the rubber the more chances or the rubbe band snapping back. In other words if price goes up in 1 big swift move I usually wait for the next candle and I sell, for a small profit, my target is usually the alligator for exit. same if the price moves down in 1 swift move, I buy at next candle and exit when price reaches alligator again.

This is the only signal that works all the time in forex and it works in any time frame. All other signals are trend following signals.

just my 2 pips.
  • #467
  • Edited 11:42am Jul 25, 2007 6:55am | Edited 11:42am
Hey Isto! I think you should have a look on it! It was amazing... but today SNGS did +2.5%

Look on chart... actually i had 2 more entrys... Anyway i didnt closed my long position.. and added to it 3 more lots...
My explanation... on the bottom we have a Bearish Dbar... another thing is that we have double bottom... Anyway by Williams system i should add 1 lot on 1 signal and 5 bar on 2 signal.. but i add only 2 lots on second signal becos i was in 2 minds....

And now price is very nice and it seems that we dont have a DB and we might have a trend.... i hope so....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNGS.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #468
  • Jul 25, 2007 7:01am Jul 25, 2007 7:01am
And with ESR i have a problem... i dont know where should i put stop loss?

I had 3 entrys: 1 DB, 2 3AC, and the third still not triggered.
Okey anyway AC now is going down.... price is near 35.4-35.5.... i put my stop on 35.3 but, if stop hits i will lose money... Becos i have 5 lots... 1 from 35.15 and 3 others from 35.5.... So your suggestions....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EESR.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #469
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:10pm Jul 25, 2007 1:10pm
Hi isto,

I always had this question in mind....

When we enter as per DB our Stop Loss is other end of DB (No problem so far)
But When we enter on 3AO etc after DB signal has ben taken, where should we put our stop loss. because Keeping the stoploss on other side of DB would be too far.

What is you suggestion ...... ?

regards

tej









Quoting Protei
And with ESR i have a problem... i dont know where should i put stop loss?

I had 3 entrys: 1 DB, 2 3AC, and the third still not triggered.
Okey anyway AC now is going down.... price is near 35.4-35.5.... i put my stop on 35.3 but, if stop hits i will lose money... Becos i have 5 lots... 1 from 35.15 and 3 others from 35.5.... So your suggestions....
  • #470
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:25pm Jul 25, 2007 1:25pm
Hi Protei,

Nice DB, confirmed with Double Bottom.... Gave you good up move
This tells us one more thing... If DB is confirmed by any other indicator , then chances of success are high & in such cases we should probably add more aggressively.

I was wondering why you did not use Zone Signals for addition !
( I know it is easier for me to say , bcoz I can see the past on the chart )

regards
tej





Quoting Protei
Hey Isto! I think you should have a look on it! It was amazing... but today SNGS did +2.5%

Look on chart... actually i had 2 more entrys... Anyway i didnt closed my long position.. and added to it 3 more lots...
My explanation... on the bottom we have a Bearish Dbar... another thing is that we have double bottom... Anyway by Williams system i should add 1 lot on 1 signal and 5 bar on 2 signal.. but i add only 2 lots on second signal becos i was in 2 minds....

And now price is very nice and it seems that we dont have a DB and we might have a trend.... i hope so....
  • #471
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:59pm Jul 25, 2007 8:59pm
Aha Tej.... on EESR you can see what will be if i use zone signals.... on SNGS it would work but on EESR....
  • #472
  • Jul 25, 2007 9:09pm Jul 25, 2007 9:09pm
Tej your question is right (about stops)! this is i a big problem... becos if we have 1 lot from Dbar it's not a problem... but if we trigger next signal like 3AO we have 6 lots.... and this is a big problem if price goes lower than DB... we will have a mega loss...
  • #473
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:16pm Jul 25, 2007 11:16pm
Quoting Protei
And with ESR i have a problem... i dont know where should i put stop loss?

I had 3 entrys: 1 DB, 2 3AC, and the third still not triggered.
Okey anyway AC now is going down.... price is near 35.4-35.5.... i put my stop on 35.3 but, if stop hits i will lose money... Becos i have 5 lots... 1 from 35.15 and 3 others from 35.5.... So your suggestions....
Stops seem reasonable there.
  • #474
  • Jul 25, 2007 11:18pm Jul 25, 2007 11:18pm
Quoting tej
... When we enter on 3AO etc after DB signal has ben taken, where should we put our stop loss.
Depends... (always depends )

I usually place stops on the other side of the current or previous bar...
  • #475
  • Jul 26, 2007 9:41am Jul 26, 2007 9:41am
Look at this situation.... Really funny i was kick by stop losses.... and market closed -4%

Anyway one question... with this Dbar... i cannot trade by trend... i always trying to find em... and after 1 tick closing my positions... i dont know what to do... if market went up and then triggered bearish DB and after short moving down stopped near alligator... what should i do next... wait until we find a direction?

And also on SNGS on top we have a DB or not? i cant figure it out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNGS.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #476
  • Jul 27, 2007 12:54am Jul 27, 2007 12:54am
Quoting Protei
Look at this situation.... Really funny i was kick by stop losses.... and market closed -4%

Anyway one question... with this Dbar... i cannot trade by trend... i always trying to find em... and after 1 tick closing my positions... i dont know what to do... if market went up and then triggered bearish DB and after short moving down stopped near alligator... what should i do next... wait until we find a direction?

And also on SNGS on top we have a DB or not? i cant figure it out
Well Protei, You have to bear in mind that not each Bbar is a valid one.

Two main conditions have to be met so as to qualify a bar as DBar:

 

  1. In a strong trend to have price moved far away from Alligator's line
  2. to have acutre angel with Alligator's line


on the chart of the post above you have neither of these...

Acctually I see a ranging stock raghly between 29 - 31 levels. Look how many bars you have in there - almost whole chart...

This is why once hit DBar reverse and hit stoploss.

It is wrong to trade trend system on a range market!

  • #477
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:24am Jul 27, 2007 2:24am
What a day was yesterday!

Here are in bried results from yesterday (some trades have started at the beginning of week)

Inserted Code
Gross Profit: 48 493.29 
Gross Loss: 2 666.19 
[b]Total Net Profit: 45 827.10 [/b]

Drawdown Absolute: 66.60 Maximal: 665.88
  
Total Trades: 38 
  Short Positions (won %): 25 (76.00%)
  Long Positions (won %): 13 (69.23%) 
  Profit Trades (% of total): 28 (73.68%)
  Loss trades (% of total): 10 (26.32%) 

Largest 
  profit trade: 3 694.22  loss trade: -372.80 

Average 
  profit trade: 1 731.90   loss trade: -266.62 

Maximum 
  consecutive wins ($): 12 (17 531.09)   
  consecutive losses ($): 3 (-574.78) 

Maximal 
  consecutive profit (count): 19 304.41 (8)   
  consecutive loss (count): -665.88 (2) 

Average 
  consecutive wins: 5   consecutive losses: 2
  • #478
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:45am Jul 27, 2007 2:45am
Here is the H4 chart of EURCAD traded last few sessions and closed today.

there were two 1 lot orders and one 2 lots.

Total profin from this trade is more than $5000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad-20070727-12.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #479
  • Jul 27, 2007 2:58am Jul 27, 2007 2:58am
EURNZD trade also ended.

There were two excellent entry points on 3 green Momentum bars and Balance line where price hesitated for a while ....

The rest was a big rally
Attached Image
  • #480
  • Jul 27, 2007 3:36am Jul 27, 2007 3:36am
For ONCE - I was right!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 27072007.GIF Size: 18 KB
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