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5Min Intraday System

  • #1,781
  • Jul 24, 2007 10:53pm Jul 24, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting Golfer
As requested
many thanks Golfer
  • #1,782
  • Jul 25, 2007 2:48am Jul 25, 2007 2:48am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Guys, just wanted to remind everybody one key point that sometimes gets forgotten when we are talking about moving averages, angles and indicators; price action. I have found that the best filter of all is price action. Lately it has kept me out of many trades that would have gone wrong if I had blindly all taken the signals produced with this method. It has also helped with my exits also.

This means learning your key signals whether you use bar charts or candles. I personally use candles and have found patterns such as tweezer tops/bottoms and doji quite reliable on the 5 min time frame. Look to see if the last set of bars have had the same top or bottom and then ask yourself what does this say about the current state of the market. Also take a step back and see if the current pullback into the 'zone' could be classified as a classical flag or pennant formation - both excellent continuation patterns that traders who are not using this system may use to trigger trades in the same direction that you want to go.

Also one more filter that I use when entering trades using this method - if the trend is down (up) I will not enter until a down (up) candle forms and closes.

Just my two cents.
  • #1,783
  • Jul 25, 2007 3:25am Jul 25, 2007 3:25am
Quoting CHECKstar
Guys, just wanted to remind everybody one key point that sometimes gets forgotten when we are talking about moving averages, angles and indicators; price action. I have found that the best filter of all is price action. Lately it has kept me out of many trades that would have gone wrong if I had blindly all taken the signals produced with this method. It has also helped with my exits also.

This means learning your key signals whether you use bar charts or candles. I personally use candles and have found patterns such as tweezer tops/bottoms and doji quite reliable on the 5 min time frame. Look to see if the last set of bars have had the same top or bottom and then ask yourself what does this say about the current state of the market. Also take a step back and see if the current pullback into the 'zone' could be classified as a classical flag or pennant formation - both excellent continuation patterns that traders who are not using this system may use to trigger trades in the same direction that you want to go.

Also one more filter that I use when entering trades using this method - if the trend is down (up) I will not enter until a down (up) candle forms and closes.

Just my two cents.
Very good points, CHECKstar, and well worth mentioning. Speaking for myself, I've always tried to take notice of what the candlesticks are telling me, and whilst I wouldn't say I was an expert at it, more often than not, I usually manage to interpret them correctly. Coming into this game (Forex), potential traders couldn't do a better favour for themselves than to learn the basic reversal/continuation patterns, plus taking note of what the doji is trying to tell them.

You will have noticed that Golfer incorporates a triangle formation a lot in his charts. It's proved to be so useful, and yet it never seems to be mentioned by anybody else. Sometimes on my charts, the price action and the pivot line seem to be forming either an ascending or descending triangle by themselves, so I take notice of that. However, the fact is that patterns such as triangles, flags, pennants don't seem to play a big part in a lot of people's trading plans from what I can see, mate. In fact, technical analysis seems to be something that, apart from S/R, Trend Lines, plus the odd Double Top or Double Bottom, has been neglected, which is a crying shame, in my opinion.
A nice looking chart, that's easy on the eye and has a simple but effective analysis, is a joy to see. Too often, we see charts that are very difficult to interpret because of the overload of information that we see on them. Where charts are concerned, "less is more" definitely makes sense!

Thanks again for the interesting and thought-provoking post, mate.
Cheers
  • #1,784
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:34pm Jul 25, 2007 1:34pm
Quoting CHECKstar
Guys, just wanted to remind everybody one key point that sometimes gets forgotten when we are talking about moving averages, angles and indicators; price action. I have found that the best filter of all is price action. Lately it has kept me out of many trades that would have gone wrong if I had blindly all taken the signals produced with this method. It has also helped with my exits also.

This means learning your key signals whether you use bar charts or candles. I personally use candles and have found patterns such as tweezer tops/bottoms and doji quite reliable on the 5 min time frame. Look to see if the last set of bars have had the same top or bottom and then ask yourself what does this say about the current state of the market. Also take a step back and see if the current pullback into the 'zone' could be classified as a classical flag or pennant formation - both excellent continuation patterns that traders who are not using this system may use to trigger trades in the same direction that you want to go.

Also one more filter that I use when entering trades using this method - if the trend is down (up) I will not enter until a down (up) candle forms and closes.

Just my two cents.
Hi Check

Now you are talking - welcome to the club. That is exactly what Phillip is trying to teach us. PRICE MOTIONS/ACTION. You'll find more of it on his 4h MACD system - the same for the 5min system. That is one thing I've learned from Phillip that I haven't came across.

Other readers:

Please don't and I repeat, please don't try and trade every setup. Get the story behind the setup meaning that is the price action before and around the setup. Especially how the price pull into the war zone - very important.

Make sure it is a high probability trade setup.

I also do like to look for lower high and higher low to keep me out of bad trades.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,785
  • Jul 25, 2007 6:00pm Jul 25, 2007 6:00pm
Hey Mike.
Here's a few of those pivot indicators you were asking about. They can all be customised in one way or another to your personal taste.

Have fun.
Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 DailyPivotPoints.mq4   9 KB | 521 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fib Pivots.mq4   5 KB | 403 downloads
File Type: mq4 FiboPiv_v2.mq4   5 KB | 478 downloads
File Type: mq4 Live Charts Fib Pivots.mq4   17 KB | 473 downloads
File Type: mq4 MultiplePivotsV2.mq4   26 KB | 371 downloads
  • #1,786
  • Jul 25, 2007 6:19pm Jul 25, 2007 6:19pm
Like Homer going into the desert after eating the psychodelic pepper, I just needed some time to myself.....TO BACKTEST! Took longer than expected, but I have developed dicipline to adhere to using this system that will pay dividends.

I took 100 trades of the EurUsd between May25 and July 2 5 minutes at a time making decisions at the close of each candle. I came up with some interesting (or maybe expected) results that I would like to share:

Of the 100 trades 63% were break even or better, 47% were profitable, and 37% were stinkers.

Risk to reward was 47% (risk 9 @ 6 plus spread of 3 pips: win 10 plus spread)

Total pips were 157 or 1.6 per trade

Now here's where the spin gets fun...
Most profitable days, Tuesday @ 3.74 pips per trade and Friday at 4.46 per trade

Most popular time to see signals was between 3 and 5 EST (London Open) with 24% of all trades.
Most probable time to take a positive trade was between 4 and 5 EST (one hour after the LO where 10 trades generated 53 pips
Second best was the London Close (11am EST) where 5 trades generated 31 pips. As was expected, the EurUsd trended best 1 hour after the LO until the NY Open (4-8 EST).

My conclusion is as follows:

I will trade this system between 4 and 8 EST (works for me since I leave for work at 7:45) on Peter's basic principles expecting about 1 trade per night.
While I do not expect to get rich quick using this method, I will add this method to my other systems and begin the arduous task of backtesting them.

Thanks Peter and Willem for the continued support and dedication to this link.
Now...On to the Phillip's 4hr Backtest :

Your comments are appreciated.

Kind Regards,
Rick
  • #1,787
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:25pm Jul 25, 2007 8:25pm
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Foricks
Most popular time to see signals was between 3 and 5 EST (London Open) with 24% of all trades.
Most probable time to take a positive trade was between 4 and 5 EST (one hour after the LO where 10 trades generated 53 pips
Second best was the London Close (11am EST) where 5 trades generated 31 pips. As was expected, the EurUsd trended best 1 hour after the LO until the NY Open (4-8 EST).
Nice work, I have noticed that lately most big moves start at around 6pm where I am (that is 6pm Australian Eastern time) - which doesnt help me too much as I am just leaving work at that time (maybe I should go mobile?!). I believe that this co-incides with first hour or so of the London session.

Quoting Foricks
Like Homer going into the desert after eating the psychodelic pepper, I just needed some time to myself.....
Love it... did you kick the turtle?! :
  • #1,788
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:35am Jul 26, 2007 12:35am
Quoting Foricks
Like Homer going into the desert after eating the psychodelic pepper, I just needed some time to myself.....TO BACKTEST! Took longer than expected, but I have developed dicipline to adhere to using this system that will pay dividends.

I took 100 trades of the EurUsd between May25 and July 2 5 minutes at a time making decisions at the close of each candle. I came up with some interesting (or maybe expected) results that I would like to share:

Of the 100 trades 63% were break even or better, 47% were profitable, and 37% were stinkers.

Risk to reward was 47% (risk 9 @ 6 plus spread of 3 pips: win 10 plus spread)

Total pips were 157 or 1.6 per trade

Now here's where the spin gets fun...
Most profitable days, Tuesday @ 3.74 pips per trade and Friday at 4.46 per trade

Most popular time to see signals was between 3 and 5 EST (London Open) with 24% of all trades.
Most probable time to take a positive trade was between 4 and 5 EST (one hour after the LO where 10 trades generated 53 pips
Second best was the London Close (11am EST) where 5 trades generated 31 pips. As was expected, the EurUsd trended best 1 hour after the LO until the NY Open (4-8 EST).

My conclusion is as follows:

I will trade this system between 4 and 8 EST (works for me since I leave for work at 7:45) on Peter's basic principles expecting about 1 trade per night.
While I do not expect to get rich quick using this method, I will add this method to my other systems and begin the arduous task of backtesting them.

Thanks Peter and Willem for the continued support and dedication to this link.
Now...On to the Phillip's 4hr Backtest :

Your comments are appreciated.

Kind Regards,
Rick
Hi Rick

Great thinking - this is not a get rich quick system. Phillip is also using the 5min system to add to the 4hMACD system. It is not his main trading system.

Currently I am looking/practising with 4 systems - almost all of them in different time frames (5min, 15min, 30 min and 4h) and in different sessions. For this month I am 150pips up using 3 of the four system. Currently I don't trade Phillip's 4h MACD system but I do follow it and familiarise myself with it. I mainly trade after 15H00GMT and sometimes before that (I don't follow the markets right through the day).

Also to repeat myself - look at the price action and make decision accordingly. Don't just look at pullback into the zone and pull the trigger.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,789
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:13am Jul 26, 2007 1:13am
Quoting Golfer

Also to repeat myself - look at the price action and make decision accordingly. Don't just look at pullback into the zone and pull the trigger.

Thanks for the comments.
I am sure that there were some trades that I did that with, and others that if I were reviewing S/R lines may have kept me out, but I am pleased with the results. This system also helps me control my impulses and gives me the patience to know that I do not "have to" trade just because I am at my computer. The market does not care that I am giving up prime sleep-time to do this...

I also am testing Phillip's 4Hr, using Peter Bain's top-down (1hr and 15 minute), and paper trading a position signal service (avg 8 days in a trade with crazy 200 pip stops and a 65% success rate), so have lots of time frames covered. The business model puts the pips at about 10 per day at 43% RRR and no less than 60% accurate. Now THAT keeps me up at night!

Good job on the pip count for the month. Keep up the good work and stellar advice.
Gotta go. Looks like the Euro finally is ready to break upwards.

Rick
  • #1,790
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:50am Jul 26, 2007 1:50am
Quoting CHECKstar
This means learning your key signals whether you use bar charts or candles. I personally use candles and have found patterns such as tweezer tops, doji
CHECKstar reminded me to remind you about 2 books I found some time ago...

This a repeat of the post no. #1713 here:


I found these books on a public site and I consider them as vital.
Take a look for a better understanding of the "hammer", "hanging man", "doji", "engulfing patern", "dark cloud cover" and all that continuation and reversal formations Eyevoltage was talking about some posts ago. Maybe his (exceptional) descriptions of the formations seemed tricky to some of you .. here are the explanations of his terms.

Believe me - they are well documented, full of exemples and vital to anyone who wants to become a trader.

Enjoy.

P.S. This first book is uploaded at rapidshare because it is 4Mega in weight. A month without any download will have it removed. If so ask for it and I will upload it again.

Stevie Nison - Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
(Reminding you from time to time about the book stored at rapidshare will keep that file stored and will not be deleted.)
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 17 Money Making Candlestick Formations.zip   41 KB | 969 downloads
  • #1,791
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:09am Jul 26, 2007 3:09am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting petrol
CHECKstar reminded me to remind you about 2 books I found some time ago...

This a repeat of the post no. #1713 here:


I found these books on a public site and I consider them as vital.
Take a look for a better understanding of the "hammer", "hanging man", "doji", "engulfing patern", "dark cloud cover" and all that continuation and reversal formations Eyevoltage was talking about some posts ago. Maybe his (exceptional) descriptions of the formations seemed tricky to some of you .. here are the explanations of his terms.

Believe me - they are well documented, full of exemples and vital to anyone who wants to become a trader.

Enjoy.

P.S. This first book is uploaded at rapidshare because it is 4Mega in weight. A month without any download will have it removed. If so ask for it and I will upload it again.

Stevie Nison - Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
(Reminding you from time to time about the book stored at rapidshare will keep that file stored and will not be deleted.)

Nice post Petrol.

(Please don't take this as me trying to big note myself or trying to take away from anybody who is self taught - because I am not!)

I first became seriously interested in trading when I was doing my post grad diploma in Applied Finance about two years ago and I picked technical analysis as an elective. I think that having been introduced to and studying technical analysis as a part of a structured course in a reputable educational institution has given me the advantage of learning from the fundamentals up. All too often you hear about people coming to the markets and jumping straight into learning trading systems, indicators and programming without starting from the basics.

I would like to stress that anybody trying to learn the markets learn from the ground up, and the means learning bar chart techniques and analysis and then candle stick analysis (I say that order because I had to do an advanced elective before we were able to study candle sticks). Build yourself a solid foundation and then build upon that. It has been over two years since I first started studying technical analysis and I still many miles away from mastering 'reading the charts'.

As for the books that Petrol has posted, I attest to the quality of Stevie Nison - Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques - as I have a hard copy sitting on my bookshelf (twas a part of my greatest ebay bargain of all time!).
  • #1,792
  • Jul 26, 2007 5:45am Jul 26, 2007 5:45am
Hi.
To supplement Petrol's post re candlesticks, here's a little pdf attachment of around 40 or more candlesticks and patterns.

Very useful to keep handy as a reminder.

Cheers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Candlestick_Patterns_for_DayTrading.pdf   46 KB | 1,153 downloads
  • #1,793
  • Jul 26, 2007 7:06am Jul 26, 2007 7:06am
Quoting eyevoltage
Hi.
To supplement Petrol's post re candlesticks, here's a little pdf attachment of around 40 or more candlesticks and patterns.

Very useful to keep handy as a reminder.

Cheers.
Hi Eyev

Thanks, a great resource document for trading this system.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,794
  • Edited 10:14am Jul 26, 2007 8:10am | Edited 10:14am
Interesting cable setup I followed today:

What looks like a nice smooth pullback towards the war zone turns out to be a stop trigger. Luckily my small R/S line (Small B) kept me out of the trade.

I was waiting for a smooth rounding within the zone but after Line A, the setup was canceled. If you haven't draw the small R line, candle 1 would have looked like a nice entry from the 21MA. After that there was also a 21MA break.

I did expect a smooth roundings like the one below "2". Also a setup but I won't have taken it because fo several reasons (high risk setup) - too close pivot level, narrow war zone, broken 21MA. But as you can see, this time it worked but will it do the next time?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20070726 cable 5min setup.jpg Size: 78 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,795
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:21am Jul 26, 2007 8:21am
My 1min news trade today. After a few minutes I realised that the trade is not going my way (possible wrong entry?) and I was looking for an exit as close a possible to BE. There was a maxiumum of 7pips move but I decided to exit on that move and not moved my SL to BE. 3pips profit at the end of the day.

That is how I handle a situation where I don't feel comfortable with the trade. If there is suddenly a movie in my direction, rather get out with a small profit. Don't wait and hope your TP will be triggered. Look what happen towards the end of the chart - 3pips profit or 10pips loss.

See page 103 for My Rules which includes the 1min news trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20070726 eur$ 1min news trade.jpg Size: 68 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,796
  • Jul 26, 2007 11:28am Jul 26, 2007 11:28am
Quoting eyevoltage
Hey Mike.
Here's a few of those pivot indicators you were asking about. They can all be customised in one way or another to your personal taste.

Have fun.
Cheers
Thank you my friend!!

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #1,797
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:47pm Jul 26, 2007 1:47pm
Want a war - who has the best books?

OK, here is my position: 1035 pages. Hundreds of formations!

Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns, 2nd Edition - 2005 9 MB in weight


http://www.planetsmilies.com/smilies...umping0009.gifhttp://www.planetsmilies.com/smilies...umping0044.gifhttp://www.planetsmilies.com/smilies...umping0004.gif

Something better my friend?
  • #1,798
  • Jul 26, 2007 2:36pm Jul 26, 2007 2:36pm
With this old computer, I'd never get around to reading it. I'd be dust before it finished downloading!

You win, Petrol, me old mate!
  • #1,799
  • Edited 2:56pm Jul 26, 2007 2:54pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting Golfer
Interesting cable setup I followed today:

What looks like a nice smooth pullback towards the war zone turns out to be a stop trigger. Luckily my small R/S line (Small B) kept me out of the trade.

I was waiting for a smooth rounding within the zone but after Line A, the setup was canceled. If you haven't draw the small R line, candle 1 would have looked like a nice entry from the 21MA. After that there was also a 21MA break.

I did expect a smooth roundings like the one below "2". Also a setup but I won't have taken it because fo several reasons (high risk setup) - too close pivot level, narrow war zone, broken 21MA. But as you can see, this time it worked but will it do the next time?
Your first chart was a classic example of the frustrations that can sometimes infuriate a trader, Willem. A trade that was close, but not close enough, due to the R/S line. Then the next opportunity that you correctly dismissed (albeit reluctantly) due to all sorts of mitigating circumstances. And after you've walked away from it? It does exactly what you wanted it to do in the first place! Makes you want to put your foot through the bloody screen sometimes.

Nice examples, mate.
  • #1,800
  • Edited 4:08pm Jul 26, 2007 4:03pm | Edited 4:08pm
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Golfer
Interesting cable setup I followed today:

What looks like a nice smooth pullback towards the war zone turns out to be a stop trigger. Luckily my small R/S line (Small B) kept me out of the trade.

I was waiting for a smooth rounding within the zone but after Line A, the setup was canceled. If you haven't draw the small R line, candle 1 would have looked like a nice entry from the 21MA. After that there was also a 21MA break.

I did expect a smooth roundings like the one below "2". Also a setup but I won't have taken it because fo several reasons (high risk setup) - too close pivot level, narrow war zone, broken 21MA. But as you can see, this time it worked but will it do the next time?
I was watching this one also Golfer. I also stayed out of this trade - there was something about it that I could not put my finger on - the price action wasn't all that convincing and EURUSD at the same time was going absolutly balistic. The spike was because of a USD news release (which I forgot was comming out - you can imagine my surprise when the spread on my broker doubled). All in all I think I am starting to hear the 'whispers' of the market.
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