Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

BTCUSD Chart Follow Up

What are these indicators? How to follow?

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I'm finding it difficult to draw channels for SP500 atm.

I think a large cycle (possibly cma1024) is having a strong influence on the smaller cycles ironing out their swings. You can see that cma512 and lower are just running parallel atm.

I suspect we're still in the 3rd leg of the move.

. Unfortunately for Cycle Analysts there are no cycles in the market, which makes their life difficult.

Even David Hickson of Sentient Trader speaks of "Dynamic Cycles" and answering a question today writes that period variation of a Hurst Nominal Cycle is unlimited !

Above post of David Hickson ruins the Nominal Model concept.

It confirms officially what I write since many years.
The "Nominal Model" is just a cyclic barometer, a cyclic thermometer, a scaling tool with which you compare the Dominant Wave you find after your "cyclical" analysis.

In short there is no Nominal Model as the common guy believes after hearing the Hurst experts.

Every expert makes his own cooking , no problem with that , I did the same but sells the officially correct Hurst Cycles, Nominal Model etc...

note that the Hurst Nominal Model used in ST is not the same as the Nominal Model used for the new Sentient FLD indicator

the " Nominal Model" is just a thermometer on which you can scale and compare the real Dominant Waves you have identified in the real life.

If you correctly read what David Hickson has written you can create several different Hurst Nominal Model s on the basis of an accepted - 35% or + 50% variation.

in short you can do what you want and labels that Hurst Nominal Model.

In the reality you identify a Dominant Wave of Period X , you label it Cycle for marketing reasons and you say it is the present status of Cycle C of Period Y of your beloved, prefered Nominal Model. The one you strongly believe in its miraculous powers to help you in your analysis and trading.

Hurst had even a nice name for this model : the Current Cyclic Model

If you examine how Sentient Trader sees the Nasdaq , what ST tells us ?

ST tells us that at the beginning and at the end if the Cyclic Nomenclature used NASDAQ "cycles" found are very close from the Model used for comparison.

A 5% deviation is very acceptable For Long Term and short Term " Cycles

But the Model used by ST does not take well into account the Medium Term Cycles.with deviation going up to 30 and 50%.

Specifically the "nominal" 40Weeks ( 9 months) and 20 weeks cycle, whose actual values (58 and 25 weeks) show they are more a 12 Months (1 year ) cycle and a 6 Months Cycle.

Curiously these 2 cycles were included in the Profit Magic Nominal Model of 1970 and have disappeared without warning and explanations in the Cyclitec Course of 1975 used by ST.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

If

SP500 Futures ES shows a deviation in average 1,5 to 2 times more important (15-20 %) for the Long Term Cycle than, for the Short Term Cycles (10 %)

BTCUSD shows a deviation in average 3 to 4 times more important (15-20 %) for the Short Term Cycle than, for the Long Term Cycles (5%)

IBM current cyclic model strongly differs from the Nominal Cyclic Model used as a reference by ST

the 4,5 years cycle is un fact a 6 years cycle (not acknowledged by Hurst)
the 40 weeks / 9 Months Cycle a 1 Year Cycle
the 80 Day cycle a 3 Months cycle

interesntingly NVIDIA is closer from the Nominal Model

and its deviations from the Model are coherent (10 %)

TESLA is follows very nicely the Nominal Model

and its deviations from the Model are coherent too (5 %)