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  • #202,361
  • Oct 25, 2024 2:38am Oct 25, 2024 2:38am
Don't forget the weekly 1.0795..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,362
  • Oct 25, 2024 3:01am Oct 25, 2024 3:01am
I see head and shoulders pattern on 5 minute chart... maybe I am ... and I see patterns everywhere...
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  • #202,363
  • Oct 25, 2024 5:53am Oct 25, 2024 5:53am
EURUSD LONG
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  • #202,364
  • Oct 25, 2024 6:03am Oct 25, 2024 6:03am
I mentioned yesterday -> US high higher than London high -> probably will continue going up.
Then today morning and London time NO breakdown (flat) means supportive -> it will go further up.

Now we are on the DXY 15min outside the Boellinger Band. That means for the next 30min it might wiggle around a bit before taking another step up potentially to 1.0848 or even it might challenge the 1.0864 to the weekly open.
  • #202,365
  • Oct 25, 2024 6:04am Oct 25, 2024 6:04am
I don't want to get political and preemptive apologies, however from a purely non technical point of view, if Trump wins, USD is going to rally very hard and possibly quite long. The election is in one week - I believe the falls in EURUSD in the last few weeks are to do at least in part with markets predicting a Trump victory.

My point here is, if you have a long perspective, but it's not a short-term trade (say within of a day), be very very careful going into next week - it's the last week before the election, and there will be even more volatility than normal.

I myself an using this rally to close longs, and I am going to be out of the market before even Friday - and I will caution that it's not a bad idea to do the same. There will be plenty of opportunities after the election, and whoever you think will win, I think it's a gamble not worth taking on EURUSD given the outcomes will be polar opposites for this currency pair.
  • #202,366
  • Oct 25, 2024 6:17am Oct 25, 2024 6:17am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
I don't want to get political and preemptive apologies, however from a purely non technical point of view, if Trump wins, USD is going to rally very hard and possibly quite long. The election is in one week - I believe the falls in EURUSD in the last few weeks are to do at least in part with markets predicting a Trump victory. My point here is, if you have a long perspective, but it's not a short-term trade (say within of a day), be very very careful going into next week - it's the last week before the election, and there will be even more volatility...
For the long it might... but intermediate everyone should be aware one of the first things he will do bringing Ukraine and Russia on the table. Ukraine is anyway almost toast (realistically seen). I think if that materializes that will boost the EUR for a while. But then later next year other things take over that might be USD supportive.

But for the near term... if the transition between Nov and Jan 20 gets bumpy... that may kick the USD up.
  • #202,367
  • Oct 25, 2024 6:19am Oct 25, 2024 6:19am
Quoting zippo22
I mentioned yesterday -> US high higher than London high -> probably will continue going up. Then today morning and London time NO breakdown (flat) means supportive -> it will go further up. Now we are on the DXY 15min outside the Boellinger Band. That means for the next 30min it might wiggle around a bit before taking another step up potentially to 1.0848 or even it might challenge the 1.0864 to the weekly open.
IF we are still to the upside assuming this mornings spike was a sign then R1 is at 1.0848 and possibly R2 @68. I'd want a better price if going in now.
while the objective is profit, the job description is risk management
  • #202,368
  • Oct 25, 2024 10:53am Oct 25, 2024 10:53am
Quoting rober159
{quote} IF we are still to the upside assuming this mornings spike was a sign then R1 is at 1.0848 and possibly R2 @68. I'd want a better price if going in now.
Unfortunately, that didn't play out. The EUR run 3x into a brick wall @ 1.0838+- so he turned around to the area Ata pointed out.
  • #202,369
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:00am Oct 25, 2024 11:00am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Unfortunately, that didn't play out. The EUR run 3x into a brick wall @ 1.0838+- so he turned around to the area Ata pointed out.
So what do you think happened?
  • #202,370
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:20am Oct 25, 2024 11:20am
Quoting Skracor247
{quote} So what do you think happened?
The bounce was just a normal pull back after 3 weeks of bearish run
Consistency is key
  • #202,371
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:31am Oct 25, 2024 11:31am
Quoting Skracor247
{quote} So what do you think happened?
Well, the BIG pockets (aka Atas "Robber Banks" etc.) had a line in the sand. Of course, they won't tell us. When the pull back happened the move run into a dry liquidity pot (means no follow through buy orders). The algos pick that up, the smart money traders too. And after 3 runups that was the sign to get out. Hence the drop was so rapid.

Thats how the cool and unemotional algos work. Only the retail traders live on hope. I guess the really BIG pockets are not ready for a swing.

First, the down move the whole month long has enormous inertia. That are huge moneys that do not turn around like a flipswitch. If they decide to turn instant (sometimes because of some data), they usually do that full flat -> then you have a 120+ pips day and another 80+ the next. Otherwise, they do that by distributing the volume over a number of days letting absorb the market the volume they have to clear. Once their position has cleared, then they drive the market in the new direction. In this case you have many 40 to 60 pips days up and down in a range. One prime example of that was last week of last month like on 27th where on London open you had a burst but no news.

Second: I think until the elections there is no real turn around. The uncertainty will keep the UDS bought. But that gives the BIG players the opportunity to rotate their large position by inducing retracements (that are planned to fail) just to re-load at the low level again.

Today unfortunately the move did not reach the 3-year trend line @ 1.0848+- instead the market must have been so thin that the algos used the 1h 200SMA as the turn around level.
  • #202,372
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:45am Oct 25, 2024 11:45am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Well, the BIG pockets (aka Atas "Robber Banks" etc.) had a line in the sand. Of course, they won't tell us. When the pull back happened the move run into a dry liquidity pot (means no follow through buy orders). The algos pick that up, the smart money traders too. And after 3 runups that was the sign to get out. Hence the drop was so rapid. Thats how the cool and unemotional algos work. Only the retail traders live on hope. I guess the really BIG pockets are not ready for a swing. First, the down move the whole month long has enormous inertia....
I was thinking along similar lines.

Since we haven't had earth-shattering fundamental news price is more than a little likely to retest its previous low(1.0750) before it moves straight back up to anywhere near the 1.10 area. IMO it is more likely to bounce off the 1.09 before continuing to the 1.0550 support at the bottom of the channel. A Presidential election may be enough to push the dollar to new highs IF it is the businessman rather than the politician. So a cautious approach is still the safest approach.

In summation I see a decision being made around 1.0750 give or take. The 1.0825 decision has been made. South it is.
  • #202,373
  • Oct 25, 2024 11:56am Oct 25, 2024 11:56am
For next week, I will care only for one zone: 1.0795-1.0810

While intraday candles open below, bears have the upper hand.. whenever above, bulls... whenever inside: indecision!

Calling it a day and week folks... Enjoy your weekends..

Peace out...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,374
  • Oct 25, 2024 12:40pm Oct 25, 2024 12:40pm
my opinion
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Swing Trader
  • #202,375
  • Oct 26, 2024 2:03am Oct 26, 2024 2:03am
#DXY
Based on 1D
COT
Review
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Swing Trader
  • #202,376
  • Oct 26, 2024 3:29am Oct 26, 2024 3:29am
H1 Levels for Monday's Asian Session

If Asian session can keep candles above 1.0791-ish levels, there is a chance for bulls... Otherwise, we probably go deeper!
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,377
  • Oct 26, 2024 11:39am Oct 26, 2024 11:39am
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Contrarian
  • #202,378
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:37pm Oct 27, 2024 11:37pm
Quick H1 Outlook

  1. London Stock Exchange is about to open (25 more minutes) and once liquidity comes in we must see if bulls can keep price above 1.0791...
  2. If yes, we can go up to retest 1.0810-ish levels...
  3. If no, bears go down to try again.. Let's see...

*Remember: end of month is around the corner. Careful!

Happy new trading week to all

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #202,379
  • Oct 28, 2024 1:50am Oct 28, 2024 1:50am
The tractor beam can go to hell
Free finally free
  • #202,380
  • Oct 28, 2024 2:40am Oct 28, 2024 2:40am
Quoting Bloodwish
The tractor beam can go to hell Free finally free
It starts to look like distribution (out of shorts).

But hey, isn't it amazing how news like todays from ECB's Mr. Whish (that's the by-word translation of Wunsch) pop up out of the nothing right when the market needs them... right?

My gut feeling says -> re-loading of the BIG money. After Friday's move run into low liquidity (of course weekend was knocking on the door) they initiated a drop back by liquidating some of their inefficient buys (means the buy orders that were taken at higher level in order to see how far the price can be driven up) letting the market pull back so that new buy orders can be placed at efficient lower levels - knowing the retail traders salivating for a trend change and so taking our stops as their efficient re-load.
And then paying at the new week open a little bit money to that news agency to come up with a statement of an ECB member that was actually made last week to trigger the move they want (so that they can free ride on the momentum and even stimulate the move with little new orders.
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