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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,621
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:34am Jul 20, 2007 3:34am
Quoting musicman007
I tend to agree with you here, they have to do something before their currency becomes worthless.
Seem to be Japaneese are loving to have a wothless yen. As you know the Economy is mainly export oriented and from a survey 7/10 CEO's of the biggest Japaneese corps have said they have no problem in yen going down further.
  • #8,622
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:38am Jul 20, 2007 3:38am
I hope that it will really break 251................
  • #8,623
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:38am Jul 20, 2007 3:38am
Quoting bluerose
Monarch, in your experience in the last 6 years, how deep is the dumping of GBPJPY can do to the price, in terms of % or pips values (500-1000 pips?) so that I can prepare for the dips? Thanks
I know I wasn't the one asked. The largest drawdown was feb/march this year.
Fell from a high of 241 to 221.
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #8,624
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:39am Jul 20, 2007 3:39am
Quoting auslanco
Seem to be Japaneese are loving to have a wothless yen. As you know the Economy is mainly export oriented and from a survey 7/10 CEO's of the biggest Japaneese corps have said they have no problem yen is going down further.
Good stuff, I also wonder how much they would have to put up rates to have amajor effect on carry trades. My feeling is that .5 might not hurt too much , above that, and if US does not increase rates, we could see a real unwinding as per your 1000 point estimate.
  • #8,625
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:40am Jul 20, 2007 3:40am
[quote=Gmak;1501823]

As we all know " God moves in mysterious ways ! "
  • #8,626
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:50am Jul 20, 2007 3:50am
China's has raised interest rates by 27 points,which will be effective from 21-July
so i think the JPY will go to 120 or 119
What you think????
  • #8,627
  • Jul 20, 2007 3:50am Jul 20, 2007 3:50am
Quoting musicman007
Good stuff, I also wonder how much they would have to put up rates to have amajor effect on carry trades. My feeling is that .5 might not hurt too much , above that, and if US does not increase rates, we could see a real unwinding as per your 1000 point estimate.
Also BoE will rise the rates by 25 in august.
I reckon as long as there is a 4%+ differnce in interest rates the carry trade will conitnue in the long run.
  • #8,628
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:02am Jul 20, 2007 4:02am
Quoting auslanco
Also BoE will rise the rates by 25 in august.
I reckon as long as there is a 4%+ differnce in interest rates the carry trade will conitnue in the long run.
I figured that in my thoughts but maybe not August, poss September
  • #8,629
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:13am Jul 20, 2007 4:13am
Quoting auslanco
Also BoE will rise the rates by 25 in august.
I reckon as long as there is a 4%+ differnce in interest rates the carry trade will conitnue in the long run.
where you get that info from?
the latest release shows future raise is a WAIT and SEE strategy..
  • #8,630
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:28am Jul 20, 2007 4:28am
Hi guys,

I'm a long-term trader in GJ pair and i had some forecast about of GJ in here usually my forecast have good accuracy.

I think GJ will be break ~251 to ~235... also i checked all JPY pairs i think JPY is very strognly in remain 2007.

If i find a suitable point in next week i'll sell GJ as long-term same as the past times and i post in here.

PLEASE DO NOT SELL GJ YET! GJ IS IN A STRONG RESISTANCE LINE AT 251



Good luck.
With Regards, MKTrader Not Risk Not Gain!
  • #8,631
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:34am Jul 20, 2007 4:34am
Quoting zamans98
where you get that info from?
the latest release shows future raise is a WAIT and SEE strategy..
TTN, Bloomberg expert and analysts comments
  • #8,632
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:36am Jul 20, 2007 4:36am
Also look at the fundamentals... UK economy is going smooth & strong... why not another rate hike within next 3 months.
  • #8,633
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:37am Jul 20, 2007 4:37am
Quoting MKTrader
Hi guys,

I'm a long-term trader in GJ pair and i had some forecast about of GJ in here usually my forecast have good accuracy.

I think GJ will be break ~251 to ~235... also i checked all JPY pairs i think JPY is very strognly in remain 2007.

If i find a suitable point in next week i'll sell GJ as long-term same as the past times and i post in here.

PLEASE DO NOT SELL GJ YET! GJ IS IN A STRONG RESISTANCE LINE AT 251



Good luck.
That's what I like to say, 251 is almost the top. I was supposed to stick with my judgement. But, if it is coming down to 235, and 251 is strong resistance line, why not to sell it, yet? Like to hear it.
  • #8,634
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:51am Jul 20, 2007 4:51am
Quoting trader8686
That's what I like to say, 251 is the top. I was supposed to stick with my judgement. But, if it is coming down to 235, why not to sell it, yet? Like to hear it.
Thank you for read my post.
Yes i agreed with you that 251 is the top.

I'm looking for W1 chart for trade on GJ as long-term i've some own rules for open position(rsi,ma,macd,stoch,...), some my rules done but i saw Parabolic SAR did not touched yet in W1 chart so i'm waiting yet. it's a good way that we check a pair with trend indicator same as Parabolic SAR or etc.

When Parabolic SAR touch i goto D1 then H4,... charts for open position.

Also Cad/Jpy is good for sell same as Gbp/Jpy too, i just like share it


Thank you.
With Regards, MKTrader Not Risk Not Gain!
  • #8,635
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:55am Jul 20, 2007 4:55am
Quoting MKTrader
Thank you for read my post.
Yes i agreed with you that 251 is the top.

I'm looking for W1 chart for trade on GJ as long-term i've some own rules for open position(rsi,ma,macd,stoch,...), some my rules done but i saw Parabolic SAR did not touched yet in W1 chart so i'm waiting yet. it's a good way that we check a pair with trend indicator same as Parabolic SAR or etc.

When Parabolic SAR touch i goto D1 then H4,... charts for open position.


Thank you.
I got this top 251 from the value trader profile.
But, do we have chance to visit (or go back close to) this resistance line or not?
My long positions just opened there, 2 hours ago.

Look at it from now, do you have a better price to exit my longs?
  • #8,636
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:04am Jul 20, 2007 5:04am
Quoting trader8686
I got this top 251 from the value trader profile.
But, do we have chance to visit (or go back close to) this resistance line or not?
My long positions just opened there, 2 hours ago.
Maybe buy position is good at this time as short-term but i'm not short-term trader on GJ... i can help you in long-term!

251 is strongly resistance line in WEEKLY chart(it's very important line) really we do not know that gbp can break 251 or not but my technical analysis told 70% GBP/JPY move down.

So i'm waiting for result in next week, i recommend to you check it with a trend indicator same as parabolic sar...(BEWARE: parabolic sar have not good accuracy in short-term M30,... charts)


Thank you.
With Regards, MKTrader Not Risk Not Gain!
  • #8,637
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:05am Jul 20, 2007 5:05am
do u have source?


Quoting MKTrader
Hi guys,

I'm a long-term trader in GJ pair and i had some forecast about of GJ in here usually my forecast have good accuracy.

I think GJ will be break ~251 to ~235... also i checked all JPY pairs i think JPY is very strognly in remain 2007.

If i find a suitable point in next week i'll sell GJ as long-term same as the past times and i post in here.

PLEASE DO NOT SELL GJ YET! GJ IS IN A STRONG RESISTANCE LINE AT 251



Good luck.
  • #8,638
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:05am Jul 20, 2007 5:05am
Quoting trader8686
I got this top 251 from the value trader profile.
But, do we have chance to visit (or go back close to) this resistance line or not?
My long positions just opened there, 2 hours ago.

Look at it from now, do you have a better price to exit my longs?
I think its a bit early to establish 251 as a top. We should see it again. Patience.
  • #8,639
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:09am Jul 20, 2007 5:09am
Quoting MKTrader
Maybe buy position is good at this time as short-term but i'm not short-term trader on GJ... i can help you in long-term!

251 is strongly resistance line in WEEKLY chart(it's very important line) really we do not know that gbp can break 251 or not but my technical analysis told 70% GBP/JPY move down.

So i'm waiting for result in next week, i recommend to you check it with a trend indicator same as parabolic sar...(BEWARE: parabolic sar have not good accuracy in short-term M30,... charts)


Thank you.
God help me, I am stuck. Should have trust myself, earlier.
  • #8,640
  • Jul 20, 2007 5:16am Jul 20, 2007 5:16am
Quoting trader8686
God help me, I am stuck. Should have trust myself, earlier.
Why u panicking - where did you put your SL?
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