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  • #361
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:11am Sep 17, 2024 7:11am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I`m not in yet; the retest was strong bullish.
I changed my entry level and I'm in now.
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  • #362
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:52am Sep 17, 2024 7:52am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I changed my entry level and I'm in now. {image}
I was stopped after had banked 50 points.
Clearly the sell off is not coming until tomorrow with the FED meeting.
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I'm done for the day.
  • #363
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:57am Sep 17, 2024 7:57am
Hi Fadhl, nice tread you have here. I am also trading NDX primarily and am a sucker for breakouts, allthough I sometimes delve into contrarian strategies. My 2c,and as you noted, the retrace was a bit bullish, but I have a hard time seeing to much buyers before feds decision tomorrow. 19650 area is the top of consolidation late August. I am so far only on the long side, but kinda jumpy.
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  • #364
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:57am Sep 17, 2024 7:57am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I was stopped after had banked 50 points. Clearly the sell off is not coming until tomorrow with the FED meeting. {image} I'm done for the day.
the new high picture is forming on the charts, possible qe on the table for europe next year, some ppl speculating on a possoble qe for america too ( although i dont believe that one), prices are bound to surge one last time
  • #365
  • Sep 17, 2024 8:13am Sep 17, 2024 8:13am
Quoting pd9000
Hi Fadhl, nice tread you have here. I am also trading NDX primarily and am a sucker for breakouts, allthough I sometimes delve into contrarian strategies. My 2c,and as you noted, the retrace was a bit bullish, but I have a hard time seeing to much buyers before feds decision tomorrow. 19650 area is the top of consolidation late August. I am so far only on the long side, but kinda jumpy.{image}
I understand your view; however I can't adopt a buy outlook until the slowing down of US economy (recession) is translated in the chart with a nice drop. After that QE will be in and NQ will fly beyond ATH.
  • #366
  • Sep 17, 2024 8:21am Sep 17, 2024 8:21am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} the new high picture is forming on the charts, possible qe on the table for europe next year, some ppl speculating on a possoble qe for america too ( although i dont believe that one), prices are bound to surge one last time
I think it's too early for QE to be priced in. The slowdown was not shown in the chart; for market healthiness, stocks need to drop before continuing up; otherwise, you can buy any stock and sleep on it as it will go up whatsoever happen...this is not healthy behavior.
  • #367
  • Sep 17, 2024 8:47am Sep 17, 2024 8:47am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think it's too early for QE to be priced in. The slowdown was not shown in the chart; for market healthiness, stocks need to drop before continuing up; otherwise, you can buy any stock and sleep on it as it will go up whatsoever happen...this is not healthy behavior.
well for the past 2 years that is where you have been at , post covid so yeah alot of people dont even remember what a pullback is nowadays, that tends to influence the movements too sentiment is everything
  • #368
  • Sep 17, 2024 10:31am Sep 17, 2024 10:31am
Working hypothesis is so far, 25 bp will be sold due to hightened prob of recession. 50 bp might give a spike, but could be sold dependant on comments on control and such. 25bp I would look for 10-15% correction. 50bp I would look for less than 5% correction. So far, the market is no where near my views...
  • #369
  • Sep 17, 2024 10:46am Sep 17, 2024 10:46am
Quoting pd9000
Working hypothesis is so far, 25 bp will be sold due to hightened prob of recession. 50 bp might give a spike, but could be sold dependant on comments on control and such. 25bp I would look for 10-15% correction. 50bp I would look for less than 5% correction. So far, the market is no where near my views...

It will be a red day be it .25 or .50
  • #370
  • Sep 17, 2024 10:50am Sep 17, 2024 10:50am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} It will be a red day be it .25 or .50
Name of the game.. You get stopped out sometimes. Tricky market now, and volumes will push in one direction come tomorrow.
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  • #371
  • Sep 18, 2024 5:36am Sep 18, 2024 5:36am
Good day!
TA Analysis:
Yesterday, NQ made a new HH. However, the daily close was a bearish one. There are two options:
1- Price continues up to solidify yesterday HH. This is really unlikely; or
2- Price drops and create a new LL. Considering the FED this afternoon, this is very plausible.
FA Analysis:
We have a big day with the FED.
1- A .25 cut is fully priced in; Market will be unsatisfied as FED is not reacting to recession; hence they will make pressure by selling off equities.
2- A .50 cut will be a nice surprise; Market will sell equities to price in the surprise.
Whatever the case, market will trade the fact leg and sell equities.

How to trade the FED?
Sell at current price a small size with large STP (above 19635). If the cut is .25, let it run to 18000; if the cut .50, close your trade around 18300. GL!
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  • #372
  • Sep 18, 2024 6:37am Sep 18, 2024 6:37am
The NY 5min Opening range is very bearish. We should look for a sell after the break and retest.
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Same thing for futures (Dec. contracts)
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  • #373
  • Sep 18, 2024 6:41am Sep 18, 2024 6:41am
This retest is invalid. We need a distanciation from the break with at least two candle, a displacement.
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  • #374
  • Sep 18, 2024 7:20am Sep 18, 2024 7:20am
Quoting Fadhl
This retest is invalid. We need a distanciation from the break with at least two candle, a displacement. {image}
Here we go for a short position for both spots and futures.
R:R is 3.55 (spots) and 3.62 (Futures)
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  • #375
  • Sep 18, 2024 8:42am Sep 18, 2024 8:42am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Here we go for a short position for both spots and futures. R:R is 3.55 (spots) and 3.62 (Futures) {image} {image}
Took off some after 50 points.
  • #376
  • Sep 18, 2024 9:22am Sep 18, 2024 9:22am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Took off some after 50 points.
Closed all with profit! Unfortunately, final target was missed by few points.
Be ready for the FED
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #377
  • Sep 18, 2024 10:45am Sep 18, 2024 10:45am
I put a Sell LMT at 19630.
  • #378
  • Sep 18, 2024 11:03am Sep 18, 2024 11:03am
Quoting Fadhl
I put a Sell LMT at 19630.
This was triggered!
Nice surprise for market. Very dovish! GL!
  • #379
  • Sep 18, 2024 11:06am Sep 18, 2024 11:06am
Wasn't a surprise lol, the 0.5 was the predictable path they just sell you bs info everywhere xd, now squeeze up than profit taking for big buys inc
  • #380
  • Sep 18, 2024 11:12am Sep 18, 2024 11:12am
Quoting Windstrown
Wasn't a surprise lol, the 0.5 was the predictable path they just sell you bs info everywhere xd, now squeeze up than profit taking for big buys inc
I respect your view. It's a surprise for my understanding.
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