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  • #7,321
  • Sep 17, 2024 5:32am Sep 17, 2024 5:32am
Quoting ahmerjamil
Yeah mates, This week's first red (Core Retail Sales m/m, & Retail Sales m/m) is coming, So are you ready! {image}
Negative, Positive!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stop Procrastinating
  • #7,322
  • Sep 17, 2024 5:32am Sep 17, 2024 5:32am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
In 15 min. we'll know where next! 1.1154/58 & 1.1200 on the upside and and 1.1116 - 1.1100 and 1.1072/65 on the downside. Taking it step by step and using stop loss after the Us retail sales release is wiser. Also its time to decide to exit or keep your trades but don't forget to have a stop loss in place for the unexpected! Good luck!
Surprise but 1.1100 should hold because the numbers are lower than then previous release meaning weaker retail sales!
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  • #7,323
  • Sep 17, 2024 6:28am Sep 17, 2024 6:28am
RELATIVE ANALYSIS

I would continue buying dips as long as we are above this order block

(Take into account the divergences).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GOOD LUCK GUYS!!!
_______________________
See where the market is moving and follow it.
  • #7,324
  • Sep 17, 2024 6:32am Sep 17, 2024 6:32am
Quoting AmDrafax
ANÁLISIS RELATIVO Continuaría comprando en caídas mientras estemos por encima de este bloque de órdenes (Tenga en cuenta las divergencias). {image} ¡¡¡BUENA SUERTE, CHICOS!!! _______________________ Vea hacia dónde se mueve el mercado y sígalo.
If this can be overshadowed and confirmed then I will look for short operations.

While I will continue buying with caution.

GOOD LUCK GUYS!!!
  • #7,325
  • Sep 17, 2024 6:42am Sep 17, 2024 6:42am
Quoting josip
DXY H1 we got double bottom pattern, so We'll see what to do with it news at 14,30 are more important {image}
DXY H1
update trendlines
it looks shorty for eurusd, if we stay above green line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.jpg Size: 575 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #7,326
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:12am Sep 17, 2024 7:12am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Surprise but 1.1100 should hold because the numbers are lower than then previous release meaning weaker retail sales!
Price action tip. Must close above the blue trendline so it can continue up. For now it closed below 1.1116 support looking to 1.1100.

1 hour
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2024-09-17_17-11-39.png Size: 61 KB
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  • #7,327
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:18am Sep 17, 2024 7:18am
Quoting josip
{quote} DXY H1 update trendlines it looks shorty for eurusd, if we stay above green line {image}
What will DXY look like after tomorrow’s fed rate cut though? That is the question
Most likely DXY will go down and EURUSD will go up no?
Consistency is key
  • #7,328
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:27am Sep 17, 2024 7:27am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} What will DXY look like after tomorrow’s fed rate cut though? That is the question Most likely DXY will go down and EURUSD will go up no?
It is expected 50pb rate cut. If Fed cut ONLY 25... The expectation os frustrated. And then dxi can be stronger
  • #7,329
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:32am Sep 17, 2024 7:32am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} What will DXY look like after tomorrow’s fed rate cut though? That is the question Most likely DXY will go down and EURUSD will go up no?
yes, when DXY rise, so eurusd go down...

DXY trendlines
support line = yellow and white
if we stay above yellow, we can rise to blue line

and 2nd pic, EURUSD trendlines
if we stay below yellow = short
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.jpg Size: 599 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: my signature.jpg Size: 599 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #7,330
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:41am Sep 17, 2024 7:41am
Quoting josip
{quote} yes, when DXY rise, so eurusd go down... DXY trendlines support line = yellow and white if we stay above yellow, we can rise to blue line and 2nd pic, EURUSD trendlines if we stay below yellow = short {image} {image}
Yes I get that
The question was what will happen after their rate cut tomorrow…
Consistency is key
  • #7,331
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:42am Sep 17, 2024 7:42am
I think FED should cut 0.25% and its the best to do. Inflation may go up again and if a recession hit US he can do the next cuts quicker! I expect USD to get stronger with caution & I will watch at the press conference after the cut, he may sound dovish in some parts. So I will stay aside on the decision and trade from the European morning again.
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  • #7,332
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:43am Sep 17, 2024 7:43am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} Yes I get that The question was what will happen after their rate cut tomorrow…
No one knows!
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  • #7,333
  • Sep 17, 2024 7:45am Sep 17, 2024 7:45am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} No one knows!
That can be said for nearly any post in this thread.
Of course nobody knows for sure until things happen.
Surely somebody here has enough experience that has been through rate cuts before and has a good idea of what will happen.
Consistency is key
  • #7,334
  • Sep 17, 2024 8:15am Sep 17, 2024 8:15am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} That can be said for nearly any post in this thread. Of course nobody knows for sure until things happen. Surely somebody here has enough experience that has been through rate cuts before and has a good idea of what will happen.
The last 10+ years I remember fed has cut one cycle of rate cuts. Even a more experienced trader has little to enough experience in rate cuts cause they are not much in 30 years lets say. The best that an analyst and trader can think and do is to watch big events that match the volatility a rate cut can create. The movement in significant news are identical in many cases. Sharp long candles and tails.

Also if you are going to trade at tomorrow's news better have a good strategy with 1:3 risk reward ratio and use a stop loss. If you think to buy/sell enter some hour before to a technical level of your choice or after the release but wait first for some movement to settle. Any system will work! I don't think that someone can guess with 100% accuracy what will happen.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #7,335
  • Sep 17, 2024 9:01am Sep 17, 2024 9:01am
EUR/USD rose to 1.1146, supported by bullish sentiment initially. However, worse-than-expected ZEW sentiment numbers tempered the advance.

The pair consolidated, and though US retail sales data was mixed, it wasn’t strong enough to push EUR/USD higher. Bullish traders squared positions, allowing the bears to push the pair down, breaking below the 1.1115 support.

Moving forward, volatility may decline as traders await tomorrow's Federal Reserve rate decision. A surprise cut could push EUR/USD above the 1.1154 resistance, potentially toward 1.1200.

However, if the Fed delivers a disappointing 0.25% rate cut, the pair could initially drop further before stabilizing.

It was great sharing my views with all, I'll close now. Have a great rest of the day!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #7,336
  • Sep 17, 2024 10:13am Sep 17, 2024 10:13am
Quoting josip
{quote} yes, when DXY rise, so eurusd go down... DXY trendlines support line = yellow and white if we stay above yellow, we can rise to blue line and 2nd pic, EURUSD trendlines if we stay below yellow = short {image} {image}
update
trendlines

EURUSD H1
staying below white line, we can fall to green line, cca 1.11

DXY H1
slowly rising to resistance (yellow and blue line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #7,337
  • Sep 17, 2024 2:16pm Sep 17, 2024 2:16pm
We closed back under the trendline. Fomc ahead!
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #7,338
  • Sep 17, 2024 8:32pm Sep 17, 2024 8:32pm
EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.1110 but managed to recover during the Asian session, climbing back up to 1.1130. At the moment, 1.1100 is preventing further decline. However, if the pair weakens and breaks through this support, the next significant support zone is between 1.1072 and 1.1054, which could potentially hold the price.
Above 1.1130, the pair may encounter resistance at 1.1147, and if surpassed, it could reach 1.1154. If this strong resistance doesn't hold, the next level to watch is 1.1201.

Until the upcoming rate cut news from the Fed, it is expected that the pair will trade within a range. Enjoy your day!

Daily volatility (range) 46 pips

Significant news - US Housing Starts Number & FOMC Rate Statement

4 hours
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2024-09-18_06-30-39.png Size: 90 KB
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  • #7,339
  • Sep 17, 2024 11:23pm Sep 17, 2024 11:23pm
Hey mates, Good afternoon!

Based on H1, Right now we have range support at 1.1118, 1.1113, & Current resistance at 1.1127, 1.1131, If we don't do range trading, Then H1 Trendline support is sitting around at 1.1104, & Resistance 1.1155!

Good luck!
Stop Procrastinating
  • #7,340
  • Sep 17, 2024 11:47pm Sep 17, 2024 11:47pm
Quoting ahmerjamil
Hey mates, Good afternoon! Based on H1, Right now we have range support at 1.1118, 1.1113, & Current resistance at 1.1127, 1.1131, If we don't do range trading, Then H1 Trendline support is sitting around at 1.1104, & Resistance 1.1155! Good luck!
Its morning yet here, drinking the first coffee! What hour is there!

Looking for price action, scalping or taking position the best until the news later!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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