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  • #42,221
  • Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm
Quoting HiKe945ReDX
{quote} Let's see though it is where the 0.681% ret is coming but I highly suspect a liquidity sweep under the 2511 level and then rise
Honestly... I don't know if the price will even move all that much before the Fed. Could just be a painful mini-range today and tomorrow.
  • #42,222
  • Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm
Quoting worldbankinc
{quote} NEW : Signal 47-2024 has just released while waiting signal 44-2024 to hit target {image} {image} Signal 44-2024 still in play
NEW SIGNAL | US30 | Signal 01-2024 has just released

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20240912 US30 Signal01-2024.png Size: 27 KB


New thread for US30 Trade Idea can be found here : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1303671-us30
I will post it there for US30. For GOLD, i will stay here.
  • #42,223
  • Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm Sep 11, 2024 11:58pm
Quoting d1zzy
Oh god, Finally able to post here again! So let’s have a quick breakdown of the week so far. Personally holding longs from 2510 NY yesterday if 4H fails to close above 2520 AGAIN will take profits and re-enter after convincing PA. Looks like all correction is done and we on our ways to new all time highs again. On the fundies side, yesterday’s headline inflation reading was surprising to say the least, quite a big jump in a month. Feels like they’re papering over the cracks again and setting up the feds for a rate cut of just 25bps coz anything...
They let you out of FF jail nice!
TechKnow
  • #42,224
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:05am Sep 12, 2024 12:05am
Quoting SnakeDok
When i see that forming on the 4H i get excited for the coming days {image}
Yeah... there's room for more insignificant H4 candles though haha.
  • #42,225
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:05am Sep 12, 2024 12:05am
Quoting SnakeDok
When i see that forming on the 4H i get excited for the coming days {image}
why that? never had a good experience using this less confluences or is this just a main insight here for a genrell overview?
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  • #42,226
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:05am Sep 12, 2024 12:05am
Quoting Techknow
{quote} They let you out of FF jail nice!


It looks like we have some worthier new candidates though lol.
  • #42,227
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:11am Sep 12, 2024 12:11am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} I use monthly to 3mins but my latest EW count update was here {quote}
Corrective wave iv not yet end.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Under my elliot wave counting, i dont postion for irregular pattern, therefore no sell for me.

Once the minimum target for a wave occurs, i start looking for confirmation for the end of the curent wave to position for the next wave.
Wave iv (abc) met- minimum requirement for a wave 4 is completed, however, given we are in a ranging market, where resistance failed to breakout while fundamental with daily and external structure still favouring the long side, the irregular waves act as liquidity sweep.
So i'm expecting a WXY double-three wave.
But that does not change the fact that we are no longer on wave iv. My money is in favor for wave v.

I once told you, not every wave in EW is tradeable. And we dont need to be in every move to make a consistent money.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #42,228
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:25am Sep 12, 2024 12:25am
Quoting Vuki
Pretty high impact news today. Anyone here using fundamentals? I want to expand my knowledge in more fundamental trading. Any insights here?
Today if you expect PPI numbers to come out higher than expected, then you would sell Gold and vice versa. Higher PPI would mean that the producers either think that the consumer is doing better than they actually are so they raise the prices or the costs are making a production not as worth it anymore, so they raise the prices of their products to compensate for the loss. Then, this would mean that the Fed would have to stay restrictive for longer which would be good for the USD in the short-term.

However, there's a difference between different high-impact news. Fed, NFP and CPI is what I would call a HIGH-IMPACT NEWS. Other high-impact news aren't as impactful as the ones mentioned, actually nowhere near to it. There should be another level added on the FF for this particular news.
  • #42,229
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:25am Sep 12, 2024 12:25am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I truly love the haters! They are my "Raison d'etre", I welcome them and encourage them to become better and better. I like a good challenge which I don't get most of the time.
Now you speak french??
Let speak only gold please check the first page )) LOL.
Joking! your levels, worked perfectly yesterday, thank you sir. Looking for taking out the h's
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #42,230
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:25am Sep 12, 2024 12:25am
I thrive on this stuff. Love it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #42,231
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:27am Sep 12, 2024 12:27am
If H1 can close above 2515$, that should be good for Bulls.
Anyway enough of the chit chat, coffee is waiting... and the price is as well, so no hurry haha.

I forgot about ECB rate cut today. Maybe this could add some volatility, we'll see...
  • #42,232
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:27am Sep 12, 2024 12:27am
Quoting Lloyd628
{quote} Thx for the tip & chart.
you welcome.

missed my TP by 1.5 points.
Hit my positive sl..

i will wait for another chance
  • #42,233
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:31am Sep 12, 2024 12:31am
Silver breaking Resistance at 28.785$. If H4 can close above Resistance and retest it without dropping heavily under the Resistance yet again, then Bulls might do better than I thought today.
  • #42,234
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:36am Sep 12, 2024 12:36am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} Now you speak french?? Let speak only gold please check the first page )) LOL. Joking! your levels, worked perfectly yesterday, thank you sir. Looking for taking out the h's
Oui bien sur!
Market is getting energy for the move up.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #42,235
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:40am Sep 12, 2024 12:40am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Oui bien sur! Market is getting energy for the move up.
i don't even have time to go to boulangerie because i need to trade gold... 2514 was a nice level... I THINK AFTER so many tried we need to go for anohter ATH today and maybe a reversal... Hm.... maybe a reversal tomorrow
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #42,236
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:43am Sep 12, 2024 12:43am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Oui bien sur! Market is getting energy for the move up.
are you guys taking profit again or wait to be stopped out??
I only follow traders with IQ above 160
Challenge Tour All Time Return: 1,004.1%
  • #42,237
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:44am Sep 12, 2024 12:44am
Quoting Bflyfx
{quote} are you guys taking profit again or wait to be stopped out??
No, we don't trade, we are just watching the levels and taking losses. lol
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #42,238
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:44am Sep 12, 2024 12:44am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Today if you expect PPI numbers to come out higher than expected, then you would sell Gold and vice versa. Higher PPI would mean that the producers either think that the consumer is doing better than they actually are so they raise the prices or the costs are making a production not as worth it anymore, so they raise the prices of their products to compensate for the loss. Then, this would mean that the Fed would have to stay restrictive for longer which would be good for the USD in the short-term. However, there's a difference between different...
Ok but that is pretty basic knowledge. I meant way more in detail. Full news analyzing to try and get profits before news release. I knew someone who was doing that and always making different szenarios. After the scenario creation he decided which is most likley to happen. Any info on that maybe? I am only using technicals for my analysis and rarley fundamentals. But i think it would be pretty interssting to learn that.
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  • #42,239
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:46am Sep 12, 2024 12:46am
Quoting Vuki
{quote} Ok but that is pretty basic knowledge. I meant way more in detail. Full news analyzing to try and get profits before news release. I knew someone who was doing that and always making different szenarios. After the scenario creation he decided which is most likley to happen. Any info on that maybe? I am only using technicals for my analysis and rarley fundamentals. But i think it would be pretty interssting to learn that.
I think the price speaks better, it's smart to be in a trade with at least 50-100 profits, Sl->BE and take out 50% before news... and usually the news are helping the price going in the HTF direction
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #42,240
  • Sep 12, 2024 12:50am Sep 12, 2024 12:50am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Today if you expect PPI numbers to come out higher than expected, then you would sell Gold and vice versa. Higher PPI would mean that the producers either think that the consumer is doing better than they actually are so they raise the prices or the costs are making a production not as worth it anymore, so they raise the prices of their products to compensate for the loss. Then, this would mean that the Fed would have to stay restrictive for longer which would be good for the USD in the short-term. However, there's a difference between different...
This wer his scenarios from yesterdays CPI. He decided for 0.3 core which worked out for him.

Scenario 1: Core CPI at 0.3%
Expected movement of the DXY (US Dollar Index): Increase
Impact on interest rates: With core inflation at 0.3%, the US dollar may appreciate, as this indicates continued strong inflation. In this case, the likelihood of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut is low, as the Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting rates during high inflation. Instead, a 25 bps rate cut in September becomes more likely, while a rate cut in November remains unlikely.

Scenario 2: Core CPI at 0.2%
Expected movement of the DXY: Neutral
Impact on interest rates: If core inflation rises by 0.2%, the US dollar may remain stable, signaling moderate inflation. In this case, market participants could expect an equal likelihood of either a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut in September. This would reflect uncertainty about the Fed's future monetary policy direction.

Scenario 3: Core CPI at 0.1%
Expected movement of the DXY: Decline
Impact on interest rates: If core inflation rises by only 0.1%, this could lead to a decline in the US Dollar Index. Low inflation could increase the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 bps rate cut in September, as the Fed may seek to stimulate economic growth and bring inflation back to its target level.
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