PUPrime In-Depth Market Analysis (Discussion)

Short Market Recap (31/7/24)

US Dollar:

1. The Dollar Index remained flat as the market awaits key US economic data releases.
2. Strengthened initially following positive US CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTs Job Openings reports.
3. Retreated as investors took profits and adopted a wait-and-see approach.
4. Expected to consolidate within a range until more significant data are released later this week.

Gold:

1. Prices rebounded sharply due to increased market volatility and safe-haven demand.
2. Bullish sentiment supported by dovish statements from Federal Reserve members.
3. Investors advised to monitor upcoming US monetary policy decisions and economic data for further trading signals.

Oil:

1. Prices fell to a seven-week low amid concerns about weakening demand from China.
2. Expectations that OPEC+ will maintain its plan to increase supplies.
3. China's manufacturing activity likely contracted for the third month in July, weighing on oil prices.
4. Upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Thursday could provide further trading signals.

Japanese Yen:

1. Gained significantly following speculation of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
2. Market estimates a 55% probability of a 0.25% rate hike.
3. BoJ expected to outline plans to reduce its extensive bond-buying program.
4. Investors should watch for further updates from the BoJ meeting.

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Short Market Recap (01/08/24)
Dollar Index:

1. The Dollar Index fell sharply after the Fed maintained interest rates but hinted at potential rate cuts as early as September.
2. Market eyes now on upcoming US economic data , including Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment rate.

Gold Prices:

1. Gold rebounded , driven by the Fed's dovish tone and escalating Middle East tensions , boosting its safe-haven appeal.

Oil Prices:

1. Oil rebounded sharply due to rising Middle East tensions and a significant decline in US crude inventories .
2. Key events include the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

US Equity Market:

1. The Nasdaq surged following the Fed's indication of potential rate cuts in September.
2. High-growth tech companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm led the rally, supporting broader US equity indexes

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Short Market Recap (5/8/24)

Dollar Index:

1. Extended losses after weaker-than-expected July employment reports.
2. US Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 114K, below expectations of 176K.
3. Unemployment Rate increased to 4.30%, higher than the forecast of 4.10%.
4. Market now pricing a 71% probability of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September, up from 31% previously.

Gold:

1. Prices tumbled after hitting a two-week high.
2. Initial rebound post-weak US jobs report due to expectations of Fed rate cuts.
3. Increased market volatility and profit-taking led to sell-offs, impacting gold and other asset classes.

US Equity Market:

1. Slumped due to concerns over economic slowdown and a tech stock sell-off.
2. NASDAQ Composite down 2.4%, S&P 500 down 1.8%, Dow Jones down 1.5%.
3. Persistent weak business activity and labor market readings increased fears of high Fed rates.

Crude Oil:

1. Slumped to eight-month lows amid recession fears in the US and China.
2. Lack of progress in OPEC+ meeting and potential delays in production cut phase-out pressured prices.
3. Limited losses due to rising Middle East tensions, which could disrupt supply.

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Short Market Recap (6/8/24)

Japanese Equities:

1. Rebounded as global markets stabilized, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumping 8.30%.
2. Recovery followed a 12.4% decline the previous day and was supported by lower Treasury yields and a rebound in US equity futures.
3. On Monday, the Nikkei 225 futures circuit breaker was triggered, leading to significant losses including a 2% rise in the yen and a 12% drop in the Topix index.
4. The sell-off had a notable impact on SoftBank Group Corp., erasing $15 billion of its value.

Oil Prices:

1. Rebounded sharply amid stabilization of global risk appetite and rising Middle East tensions.
2. Focus on potential supply disruptions due to escalating conflicts involving Iran, Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
3. Oil prices expected to rise if the situation in the Middle East intensifies further.

Dollar Index:

1. Extended losses following weak US jobs data, which dampened optimism about the economic recovery.
2. Market speculation increased for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, with more than a 50% probability if economic conditions remain weak.
3. Recent US economic data showed mixed results: S&P Global Services PMI at 55 (below 56.0 expectations), while ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices at 57 (above 56.0 expectations).

Gold Prices:

1. Retraced sharply due to a global equity market selloff, leading to margin calls and forced sales of gold.
2. As market conditions stabilized, investors started reallocating into gold, with a cautious wait-and-see approach.

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Short Market Recap (7/8/24)

Equities:

1. Stabilized after Monday’s aggressive selloff, with institutional investors buying the dip.
2. The S&P 500 index rebounded by 1% on Tuesday, recovering from its worst session in almost two years.
3. The CBOE VIX Index fell from its highest level since 2020, indicating reduced market fear.
4. Caution advised as the rebound might be a short-term technical correction; further economic data and central bank decisions are needed to support sustained recovery.

US Dollar and Treasury Yields:

1. US Treasury 10-year yields are trending downward amid expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
2. Dovish Fed expectations have weighed on the appeal of the US Dollar.
3. Although some dip-buying has occurred, the longer-term trend for the dollar remains bearish due to weak economic performance and rate cut expectations.

Crude Oil:

1. Retreated despite rising Middle East tensions, which typically would drive prices higher.
2. Decline attributed to pessimistic global economic outlooks, especially from major oil importers China and the US.
3. Monitoring global economic performance is crucial for assessing future oil market trends.

Gold :

1. Extended losses as investors sold gold to raise cash for margin calls amid the equity and crypto asset selloff.
2. Shifted investor focus to dip-buying in equities and cryptocurrencies.
3. Future trends in the gold market are data-dependent and influenced by monetary policy expectations.

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Short Market Recap (8/8/24)

US Equity Markets:

1. US equity markets retreated; notable losses include Super Micro Computer Inc., which fell nearly 20%.
2. JPMorgan economists increased the probability of a US recession by year-end to 35%.
3. Fears of recession and rising market volatility cast a pessimistic outlook on high-risk US equities.

US Dollar:

1. The US Dollar remained flat after a recent rebound, with a long-term pessimistic outlook due to potential Fed rate cuts.
2. Expectations of a 50 basis points rate cut in September diminish the dollar’s appeal.
3. Investors should monitor upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims for further trading signals.

Gold Prices:

1. Gold prices tumbled, hovering around a strong support level of $2,380.
2. The market is consolidative as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach.
3. Both bullish and bearish factors are at play; a pessimistic economic outlook and potential Fed rate cuts could support gold, but continued equity market declines might lead to gold sell-offs.

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Short Market Recap (9/8/24)

Wall Street:

1. Nasdaq led gains, driven by positive U.S. job data.
2. Yen carry trade unwound, further enhancing equity market sentiment.
3. Caution advised due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S. presidential election.

U.S. Dollar:

1. Initial boost from positive job data, but faced pressure from increased Continuous Jobless Claims.
2. Potential Fed rate cut in September could weaken the dollar, with strong resistance near 103.50.
3. Australian and New Zealand dollars trending upward; Chinese CPI data critical for maintaining momentum.

Gold:

1. Rebounded nearly 2% due to heightened Middle East tensions.
2. Increased demand as fears of broader regional conflict rise.

Oil:

1. Prices up due to shutdown of Libya's largest oil field, cutting global supply by 300,000 barrels per day.
2. Market awaiting Chinese CPI data for further movement.

Cryptocurrency:

1. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw strong bullish momentum.
2. BTC surged past $60,000, gaining over 5%, reflecting risk-on market sentiment.

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Short Market Recap (12/8/24)

Dollar Index (DXY):

1. Remained flat as investors await key inflation data and Fed speeches later this week.
2. July CPI report expected to show a slowdown in inflation, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
3. Key speeches from Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, and Austan Goolsbee, are anticipated for further direction.

Gold:

1. Prices rose due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
2. Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset driven by ongoing conflicts and recent escalations, including Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s offensive into Russian territory.

Crude Oil:

1. Continued to rise, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and escalating Middle East conflicts raising supply concerns.
2. Rebound in global equity markets and reduced recession fears supported oil demand. Tensions, including potential retaliatory strikes by Iran, are adding to bullish sentiment.

USD/JPY:

1. Remained bearish as the US Dollar weakened on expectations of Fed rate cuts, while the Japanese Yen strengthened.
2. Market pricing indicates a 56.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December. The BoJ’s potential further rate hikes are keeping the USD/JPY under pressure.

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Short Market Recap (13/8/24)

Gold:

1. Prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
2. Demand for safe-haven assets increased following the assassination of Hamas's political leader and US military deployments to the region.
3. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support bullish momentum in the gold market.

Crude Oil:

1. Prices rebounded sharply as market participants anticipate potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
2. Concerns over possible Iranian retaliatory actions and stricter US sanctions are driving fears of supply shortages.
3. Increased tensions in the region are fueling a bullish outlook for oil prices.

Dollar Index (DXY):

1. Remained flat as investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
2. The PPI data will provide insights into potential Federal Reserve rate decisions.
3. A higher-than-expected PPI could limit downside for the USD by reducing the likelihood of rate cuts.

US Equity Markets:

1. Extended gains, supported by falling US Treasury yields.
2. Momentum remains sluggish as investors await key economic reports, including inflation data.
3. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming reports for further trading signals.

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Short Market Recap (15/8/24)

Dollar Index (DXY):

1. Extended losses following a weaker-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
2. CPI rose 2.90%, below the previous 3.05% and market expectations.
3. Anticipation of a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

US Equity Markets:

1. Extended gains for the fifth consecutive day, the longest winning streak in over a month.
2. Financial, energy, and tech stocks led the rally.
3. Supported by retreating US Treasury yields and expectations of rate cuts.

Gold:

1. Prices surged initially after the CPI report but retracted due to profit-taking.
2. Long-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated rate cuts and weaker economic performance.
3. Investors should watch for further signals from US interest rate decisions.

Crude Oil:

1. Fell sharply as concerns over Iranian retaliation eased and US crude oil inventories surged by 1.36 million barrels.
2. Unexpected increase in inventory contributed to downward pressure on prices.
   
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Short Market Recap (17/06/24)
Dollar Rebounds on Hawkish Fed Signals:

1. Dollar Index saw a slight uptick.
2. Fed's Neel Kashkari suggested delaying rate cuts until December.
3. US Retail Sales data this week is crucial for market signals.

Gold Prices Consolidate Amid Mixed Sentiment:

1. Prices stabilizing around resistance levels.
2. Mixed outlook with easing US inflation vs. hawkish Fed statements.
3. ECB and BoE signaling potential easing policies.

Pound Sterling Retreats Ahead of BoE Decision:

1. Sharp decline in Pound Sterling.
2. Market speculation on BoE's rate decisions, with potential cuts.
3. UK inflation data expected to hit BoE’s 2% target.

Crude Oil Retraces from Two-Week Highs:

1. Oil prices pulled back after profit-taking.
2. OPEC and IEA maintain optimistic demand forecasts.
3. Focus on upcoming economic data from China for future demand.

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Market Recap - 22/8/24
Dollar Index:

1. Extended losses amid growing expectations for a September rate cut following the Fed's dovish meeting minutes.
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down March 2024 employment gains by 818,000 positions, adding pressure on the dollar.

Gold:

1. Holding above $2,500 for the third consecutive day, supported by dovish Fed signals.
2. Weakening dollar boosts demand for gold, with investors eyeing upcoming economic data and Jackson Hole statements.

Crude Oil:

1. Prices slide due to a pessimistic global economic outlook and easing Middle East tensions.
2. Israel's preliminary ceasefire deal reduced supply risks, further pressuring oil prices.

U.S. Equity Market:

1. Edged higher as Fed minutes bolstered rate cut expectations for September.
2. Risks remain regarding the U.S. economy following the downward revision in job figures. Investors await Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments for further guidance.

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Market Recap - 28/8/24
Dollar Index:

1. 1. Extended losses as investors remain cautious ahead of key economic reports.
   2. Long-term bearish bias due to September rate cut expectations.
   3. Potential rebound if US Core PCE Price Index data exceeds expectations.

Gold:

1. 1. Prices rose amid escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions.
   2. Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and Powell’s speech signaling lower rates.
   3. Investors await further guidance from upcoming Fed speeches and key economic reports.

Cryptocurrency:

1. 1. Market declined sharply due to potential US-China tensions over cryptocurrency policies.
   2. Trump’s statements about Bitcoin mining in the US heightened investor concerns.
   3. Possible stricter regulations could impact market sentiment.

Crude Oil:

1. 1. Prices fell on forecasts of short-term supply disruptions being resolved quickly.
   2. Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast due to a weakening global economic outlook and rising electric vehicle adoption.
   3. Analysts predict significant market impact with reduced oil demand, especially in China.

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Market Recap - 29/8/24
Dollar Index:

1. Rebounded slightly after hitting its lowest level in over a year, supported by a strong technical level.
2. Overall trend remains uncertain as investors await key US economic data, including GDP and Core PCE Index.
3. Weaker-than-expected reports could lead to renewed pressure on the dollar.

Gold:

1. Prices held steady as market participants waited for key US economic data before making new moves.
2. Gold briefly dipped due to the dollar's rebound but recovered after testing a strong support level.
3. Safe-haven appeal remains strong due to stabilizing US inflation expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Crude Oil:

1. Prices extended losses following a smaller-than-expected decline in US crude inventories, reported by the EIA.
2. Concerns over potential supply disruptions from Libya tempered the losses, with significant output disruptions reported.
3. Libya's conflict has affected production, with estimates of up to 1 million bpd being halted.

US Equity Market:

1. The market slipped, led by a sharp decline in Nvidia's stock, which fell over 5% despite strong Q2 results and a $50 billion stock buyback announcement.
2. Concerns arise about whether Nvidia's recent stock surge aligns with its earnings growth.
3. Investors are likely to closely monitor Nvidia's performance to assess market sentiment in the long term.

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Market Recap - 9/9/24
Dollar Index:

1. Dollar Index fluctuates after mixed US jobs data.
2. Nonfarm Payrolls miss expectations at 142K, while Average Hourly Earnings rise to 0.40%.
3. Uncertainty persists over whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 basis points rate cut.

Gold:

1. Gold prices surge after downbeat Nonfarm Payrolls data but retrace after hitting resistance.
2. Profit-taking and mixed sentiment dominate as Average Hourly Earnings meet expectations.
3. Investors await the Fed's monetary policy decision for further direction.

Oil Prices:

1. Oil prices extend losses due to global economic slowdown concerns.
2. US jobs data disappointment and OPEC+ postponing production increases weigh on demand.
3. Geopolitical tensions limit further oil price declines.

US Equity Markets:

1. US equity markets suffer their worst week since March 2023, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 dropping 2.7%.
2. Weaker payroll data heightens economic concerns, and Treasury yields fall before stabilizing.
3. Momentum for a half-point Fed rate cut wanes despite initial openness from Fed officials.

Short Market Recap (01/10/24)
Dollar Index Rebounds: The Dollar strengthened as Fed Chair Powell's optimism eased concerns over an aggressive 50 bps rate cut. Market participants now see a 35% chance of such a cut in November, down from 53%.

Gold Falls: Profit-taking and dollar strength pushed gold prices lower, as Powell’s positive outlook reduced demand for the safe-haven asset.

US Stocks Close Q3 Strong: US equities ended Q3 with gains, driven by rate cut optimism. S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Dow added 17 points, and NASDAQ gained 0.4%.

Crude Oil Steady: Oil prices were flat amid Middle East tensions and doubts about China's demand outlook.


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Market Recap - 03/10/24
Dollar:

1. The Dollar Index surged due to strong ADP Nonfarm Employment data, surpassing expectations at 143K vs. 124K.
2. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell further supported the dollar.
3. Positive labor market indicators reduced expectations for a 50-basis point rate cut.

Gold:

1. Gold prices rebounded slightly as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.
2. Gains were limited by strong U.S. economic data, including the better-than-expected ADP Nonfarm Employment report.
3. Investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment data.

Oil:

1. Oil prices rose amid escalating Middle East tensions, driven by Iran's missile attacks on Israel.
2. Concerns of supply disruptions were tempered by a surprise U.S. crude inventory build of 3.9 million barrels.
3. Investors are closely monitoring potential retaliatory actions that could impact oil supplies further.

Equities:

1. U.S. equity markets saw modest gains, supported by expectations of future rate cuts and economic resilience.
2. Investor sentiment remained cautious due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and upcoming payroll data.
3. Tesla and Nike stocks faced significant losses, with Tesla down over 3% and Nike dropping by more than 6% after a revenue slump.

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