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The Swamp

  • #118,441
  • Jul 19, 2024 7:26am Jul 19, 2024 7:26am
Quoting gatorinla
No promises.. Uj may find some R 157.42/.52 area. {image}
I took this UJ trade at 157.52.. It looked good the first 20 pips. This spike stook me out.
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  • #118,442
  • Jul 19, 2024 12:01pm Jul 19, 2024 12:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
boring {image} {image}
update: more boring!

The Fed will have a media blackout concerning any rate decision until July 31. ADR is less than 50 now. The summer range atm prevails.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,443
  • Jul 19, 2024 12:32pm Jul 19, 2024 12:32pm
A new one comes out in a few hs to compare with. The net gain close to close was 49 pips in the week. In this report. About 10 pips per day higher (on last weeks average). At the current 0947.x high from the Tuesday close is about 50 pips. Back it up the other way and 50 pips is about 0847x. Its not a adr, it more like a adr oc. So far pa today is 26 pips. Just a little over 1/2 adr
It still has enough adr to reach 0853ish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,444
  • Jul 19, 2024 10:02pm Jul 19, 2024 10:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
A new one comes out in a few hs to compare with. The net gain close to close was 49 pips in the week. In this report. About 10 pips per day higher (on last weeks average). At the current 0947.x high from the Tuesday close is about 50 pips. Back it up the other way and 50 pips is about 0847x. Its not a adr, it more like a adr oc. So far pa today is 26 pips. Just a little over 1/2 adr It still has enough adr to reach 0853ish {image}
I have watched many videos explaining trading COT. I have yet to find the holy grail. Even if this eventually becomes true. The timing is always a challenge. But why not at a ypp? I would think the odds from 0928 area had the better chance. The institutions and Non Commercial as a combined group in this COT have weight in shorts. That dont make pa automatically bearish. These guys have deeper pockets than me.
None of the videos I have watched have this simple. Follow the money, all the money as a group. They mostly focus on the individual; group. As combined group lets see what happens.
I dont think the market really cares where the money comes from. As a group these are supposed to be the smarter money
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  • #118,445
  • Jul 21, 2024 4:38pm Jul 21, 2024 4:38pm
Lets see if 0887/88 area holds as R.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,446
  • Jul 21, 2024 5:45pm Jul 21, 2024 5:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
Lets see if 0887/88 area holds as R.
Nope. I may get a buy signal on the 15 min after 0906x + close..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,447
  • Jul 22, 2024 3:20am Jul 22, 2024 3:20am
My balls are hanging over a barbed wire fence. Some light R 0895. 0898+ a few I have as my stop now.
I never got a long signal on the 15 min.
I did get a short signal on the 30 min at 0884. The stop would need to be around 0899. tp 3-6X that amount. But Friday;s low needs a 4h close below it to pass. In 30 min the 4-6-12h closes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,448
  • Jul 22, 2024 3:39am Jul 22, 2024 3:39am
Not Friday's low exactly. a 4h below 0873 close. Also anywhere below it to 0851 has support potential. The consolidation here may want a long red one closing below 0851 to break out.
With 20 minutes to go. It dont look like this round.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,449
  • Jul 22, 2024 5:36am Jul 22, 2024 5:36am
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doubtful options
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,450
  • Jul 22, 2024 8:12am Jul 22, 2024 8:12am
Quoting gatorinla
Not Friday's low exactly. a 4h below 0873 close. Also anywhere below it to 0851 has support potential. The consolidation here may want a long red one closing below 0851 to break out. With 20 minutes to go. It dont look like this round.
Another 4h passed without the lower breakout.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,451
  • Jul 22, 2024 9:46pm Jul 22, 2024 9:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
My balls are hanging over a barbed wire fence. Some light R 0895. 0898+ a few I have as my stop now. I never got a long signal on the 15 min. I did get a short signal on the 30 min at 0884. The stop would need to be around 0899. tp 3-6X that amount. But Friday;s low needs a 4h close below it to pass. In 30 min the 4-6-12h closes
She is pressing 0895...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,452
  • Jul 23, 2024 1:41am Jul 23, 2024 1:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} She is pressing 0895...
0895 held this time. A long red candle close below 0851 may be a breakout drop.I will not be surprised to drop down near 0689/94 sometime before a push up next week FOMC NFP
A drop cant happen without getting below all the support 0873/51... ATm a lot of interest at 0888/89. Below it may take 0873
bears need a 4h close below 0873
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  • #118,453
  • Jul 23, 2024 1:54am Jul 23, 2024 1:54am
Quoting gatorinla
My balls are hanging over a barbed wire fence. Some light R 0895. 0898+ a few I have as my stop now. I never got a long signal on the 15 min. I did get a short signal on the 30 min at 0884. The stop would need to be around 0899. tp 3-6X that amount. But Friday;s low needs a 4h close below it to pass. In 30 min the 4-6-12h closes
I did get another 30 min short signal
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,454
  • Jul 23, 2024 2:00am Jul 23, 2024 2:00am
Maybe some light R at 0886ish
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  • #118,455
  • Jul 23, 2024 3:07am Jul 23, 2024 3:07am
I'm not trading gold.. My 10 minute has a buy signal. Stop would have to be about 2388 low.. Its about 10 bucks S/L. tp 3X or more. ATM at 2397
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  • #118,456
  • Jul 23, 2024 3:09am Jul 23, 2024 3:09am
eu making the move. The 4h may take 0872/73.. Or even -0851.. This current h closes a 12h.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,457
  • Jul 23, 2024 3:35am Jul 23, 2024 3:35am
This may be a classic H/S forming.
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  • #118,458
  • Jul 23, 2024 5:13am Jul 23, 2024 5:13am
Fair warning.. I dont know what it will do at 0851. ADR is also there. It may run back to 0875/73 area.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,459
  • Jul 23, 2024 5:24am Jul 23, 2024 5:24am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,460
  • Jul 23, 2024 8:16am Jul 23, 2024 8:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
I think 0979/94 ish. But it may bounce some.
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