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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #88,301
  • Jul 15, 2024 9:24pm Jul 15, 2024 9:24pm
Quoting kcal
{quote} +20% at 158.6 (All in now ) Aim 151.9 ~
close all at 158.63 waiting for next chance
When you look at Chart,there are 10,000 traders do the same time
  • #88,302
  • Jul 15, 2024 10:08pm Jul 15, 2024 10:08pm
Quoting Saxoncapital
Awaiting a further sweep before longing here. Price action poor currently. {image}
Well called. Bravo!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #88,303
  • Jul 15, 2024 11:38pm Jul 15, 2024 11:38pm
The bias today is buy. Good Entry to catch the movement is 158.650. although forming another entry at 158.700. the target for today is 159 ish. Good Retail news could prop ot up ...bad news coule potentially cause to go down.
  • #88,304
  • Jul 16, 2024 2:18am Jul 16, 2024 2:18am
Buy limit set here.
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  • #88,305
  • Jul 17, 2024 12:43am Jul 17, 2024 12:43am
Buy dips at 156-155
  • #88,306
  • Jul 17, 2024 5:03am Jul 17, 2024 5:03am
Quoting hathor
My signals: Monthly TF sell signal at 151.663 Weekly TF sell signal at 160.786 Daily TF sell signal at 161.413 First target is inside the gray triangle. (Weekly TF USDJPY chart) {image}
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #88,307
  • Jul 17, 2024 7:52am Jul 17, 2024 7:52am
BOJ intervention can happen. but i think it will be a good trading setup. short-term looks bearish but most likely there will be a very strong upside movement after touching this zone.
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  • #88,308
  • Jul 17, 2024 8:06am Jul 17, 2024 8:06am
Quoting Tintin2014
BOJ intervention can happen. but i think it will be a good trading setup. short-term looks bearish but most likely there will be a very strong upside movement after touching this zone. {image}
Definitely possibel. But after a bullrun from ~75.XXX since 2012 - its not surprising that - you can find a good reason to buy at “every corner”…
Exactly this mentality that will fuel the BOJ and industrial traders to find enough opposing positions.
Trade safe.

“The day when the otherwise stubborn optimist turns pessimistic is most likely the turning point of the exchange rate trend. Of course, the reverse is also true. If the inveterate pessimist turns into an optimist, you should get out of the stock market as quickly as possible.”

Andre Kostolany

f(z)=z2+c
  • #88,309
  • Jul 17, 2024 11:46pm Jul 17, 2024 11:46pm
this JPY, the most volatile pair in currency trading, it always completes it missionary journey before reverse. for now, it's bearish.
  • #88,310
  • Jul 18, 2024 7:18am Jul 18, 2024 7:18am
Quoting LukaPetek
this JPY, the most volatile pair in currency trading, it always completes it missionary journey before reverse. for now, it's bearish.
good position here + 35% short at 156.7 SL +25
When you look at Chart,there are 10,000 traders do the same time
  • #88,311
  • Jul 21, 2024 12:31pm Jul 21, 2024 12:31pm
Last Friday, USDJPY price action on the daily time went sideway after a bullish pullback on Thursday of the bearish drive to the 155.400 horizontal support. We may still see further northward move in the early part of this week, particularly if price action significantly breaks out of the immediate horizontal resistance at the 158.200 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #88,312
  • Jul 23, 2024 12:41am Jul 23, 2024 12:41am
Yey or ney?
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  • #88,313
  • Jul 23, 2024 1:54am Jul 23, 2024 1:54am
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3Some Candle TacticaL
  • #88,314
  • Jul 23, 2024 12:50pm Jul 23, 2024 12:50pm
Two weeks ago , everyone is still looking forward to the arrival of 170.

Now it's a quiet terror. BOJ won for now.
When you look at Chart,there are 10,000 traders do the same time
  • #88,315
  • Jul 24, 2024 2:29am Jul 24, 2024 2:29am
As you can see on PA, the selling volume of BOJ is decreasing. The fact behind that is that the big carry traders now start to buy less -> less volatility on a relative low price.

I told before: 600 pips from the top is the magical number. That is the amount you get per year on carry trade. Here, the big guys get more cautios and only buy new dips. It also gets more difficult for BOJ now because the big swings are missing out (they also speculate in short term against their own currency).

This morning, probably BOJ sold on low volume, hoping today's london and new york session will be no big buyers. Till now, they are correct. BOJ currently sell of some of their shorts (so USD/JPY goes up) to book some profits and gain new power to push USD/JPY even more down.

I'm not sure where the big guys starts to sell in big chunks due to heavy upward movement form USD/JPY. So they probably have plenty of room left before start selling. May 150 is a crucial area where some will sell 20% of their big positions and let the USD/JPY drop another 300 pips (may be to 147).

Very speculative now. Expect higher vola again above 157.50. Difficult to trade now.
  • #88,316
  • Jul 24, 2024 3:52am Jul 24, 2024 3:52am
Quoting JackintheBox
As you can see on PA, the selling volume of BOJ is decreasing. The fact behind that is that the big carry traders now start to buy less -> less volatility on a relative low price. I told before: 600 pips from the top is the magical number. That is the amount you get per year on carry trade. Here, the big guys get more cautios and only buy new dips. It also gets more difficult for BOJ now because the big swings are missing out (they also speculate in short term against their own currency). This morning, probably BOJ sold on low volume, hoping today's...
My dude , how could you knew about BOJ's operation . It's like they made it clear that everything was public .
if you kept 161.x short until now , easy to happy
When you look at Chart,there are 10,000 traders do the same time
  • #88,317
  • Jul 24, 2024 4:05am Jul 24, 2024 4:05am
Quoting kcal
{quote} My dude , how could you knew about BOJ's operation . It's like they made it clear that everything was public . if you kept 161.x short until now , easy to happy
However my friend , you noticed that JPY has risen before BOJ decision, this means BOJ will delay hiking to see the outcomes first then revaluate.. now Chinese Bank already lowered it's rate . I forecast Usdjpy will be limited by 150 and fluctuate to 158 -157 for time being
  • #88,318
  • Jul 24, 2024 5:55am Jul 24, 2024 5:55am
Even if you hold Japanese yen, the interest rate will not be higher than that of the US dollar for a while. The declining birthrate has been a major news item in Japan, but the US dollar should be equivalent to 200 yen per dollar, just like the pound.


Quoting Nabil1144
{quote} However my friend , you noticed that JPY has risen before BOJ decision, this means BOJ will delay hiking to see the outcomes first then revaluate.. now Chinese Bank already lowered it's rate . I forecast Usdjpy will be limited by 150 and fluctuate to 158 -157 for time being
  • #88,319
  • Jul 24, 2024 9:41am Jul 24, 2024 9:41am
Quoting fxmas
Even if you hold Japanese yen, the interest rate will not be higher than that of the US dollar for a while. The declining birthrate has been a major news item in Japan, but the US dollar should be equivalent to 200 yen per dollar, just like the pound. {quote}
Also it is now Buy the rumor and Sell the fact , Now yen is rising due to rumor BOJ will hike in the next week , and once they hike, the yen will be weak again as fact.
  • #88,320
  • Jul 25, 2024 6:25am Jul 25, 2024 6:25am
I got sl. it rebound at the point I got sl. Damn.
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