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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #831,161
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:09am Jul 3, 2024 2:09am
I wonder if Bank of Japan is still alive.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #831,162
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:13am Jul 3, 2024 2:13am
Quoting Georginson
I wonder if Bank of Japan is still alive.


You think they may have all committed seppuku....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #831,163
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:18am Jul 3, 2024 2:18am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} ONLY MY OPINION {image}
Hi, Interesting. I try not to have an opinion although it can be hard, I think we are all 'speculators' at heart so 'speculate' about future price direction. Thing is though, as we know, the market doesn't give a shit about what we think, it will do what it will do regardless. So the scenario you outline is just that - one scenario amongst countless others re future price discovery over that time horizon. Unless you have a large representative historical sample (s) of empirical data to suggest that what leads up to the current price is indicative of it @ a certain known % of probability, (you may have I don't know,) it remains just what someone thinks, - a possibility, amongst many others. I don't say this to belittle or anything, just to point out the folly of prediction -versus- known probabilities based on empirical evidence.
Regards.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #831,164
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:23am Jul 3, 2024 2:23am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Wondering why Labour coming to power will pump Cable, is it just going to be a euphoric moment that will soon dissipate when everyone realises what their getting is a bunch of idiots pushing their woke agenda and not giving a damn about the other 97% of the population? We have in Australia the worst Prime Minister in our history with his filthy woke agenda and only now when he sees the writing on the wall that he may become a single termer he's actually starting to change a bit. Woke is just a repackaging of communism you know the ideology...
Stability, new government new ideas, no disharmony in the party as yet, its also a more centre left party, so appeals to businesses too.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #831,165
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:35am Jul 3, 2024 2:35am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Stability, new government new ideas, no disharmony in the party as yet, its also a more centre left party, so appeals to businesses too.
All parties 'winning' in Europe 'today' are not encouraging escalation of US/Ukraine war with Russia!
  • #831,166
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:37am Jul 3, 2024 2:37am
Checking usdx , tanking but within all limits , even the lowest at top , that is , every last leg up still intact ! Multiples level of support while only one target , breaks 105.67 for 105.82 , so bull strong intact still. And no two kings at the same time in the same jungle ,the crazy to ultimately lost ! Watching
Anyway usdx actually not in bull but just a n extended correction up to have a soft landing without great shock and recession next, just delaying , not ignoring very good probabilities by end this year or next year . So probably market not believe or reacting positively with their very positive news even/ negatively correlating recently !!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #831,167
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:39am Jul 3, 2024 2:39am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Stability, new government new ideas, no disharmony in the party as yet, its also a more centre left party, so appeals to businesses too.

I've never known a labour government to be centre left but maybe different to Australian Labour
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #831,168
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:41am Jul 3, 2024 2:41am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, Interesting. I try not to have an opinion although it can be hard, I think we are all 'speculators' at heart so 'speculate' about future price direction. Thing is though, as we know, the market doesn't give a shit about what we think, it will do what it will do regardless. So the scenario you outline is just that - one scenario amongst countless others re future price discovery over that time horizon. Unless you have a large representative historical sample (s) of empirical data to suggest that what leads up to the current price is indicative...

you dont need evidence on price movement


market only have 2 sides up or down

logically i have made my own speculation
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #831,169
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:44am Jul 3, 2024 2:44am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} I've never known a labour government to be centre left but maybe different to Australian Labour
Labour has had to be more centric, to lure the disgruntled Tory voters.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #831,170
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:50am Jul 3, 2024 2:50am
nice strategy
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yes yes yes
  • #831,171
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:12am Jul 3, 2024 3:12am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} I've never known a labour government to be centre left but maybe different to Australian Labour
Hi. Uk Labour are a mildly centre-left party but much like the centre-right Uk Reform party, and to some extent the Uk conservatives that attract the loony right fringes, so Uk Labour attracts the loony left fringe. It has to talk the Conservatives language to get elected, as beetogether intimates in his post above, as Uk is probably still a ' small c ' conservative nation by nature (,?) and when it doesn't - it gets well beaten @ the polls.

--------------------------------------------------
...so this prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone that extends up to current wkly hi of 2709/10 causing bulls problems again today @ current dly hi which is an upside break above both y/day hi and just higher than that - today's asian hi, and in fact the current dly hi is right about last week's 2702 hi.

Maybe an upside break and clear above 2709/10 current wkly hi opens up that next prev 4hr/dly sw hi zone that extends up to 2740?

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #831,172
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:24am Jul 3, 2024 3:24am
if you know how to manage risk and have patience you have solve the 95% of your problem in trading
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #831,173
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:44am Jul 3, 2024 3:44am
Quoting ScalaFX
Gold nice up, Im shorting it 2341, pending 43,45,47,49
filled and dont look good right now, lets see where want to go
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #831,174
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:46am Jul 3, 2024 3:46am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi. Uk Labour are a mildly centre-left party but much like the centre-right Uk Reform party, and to some extent the Uk conservatives that attract the loony right fringes, so Uk Labour attracts the loony left fringe. It has to talk the Conservatives language to get elected, as beetogether intimates in his post above, as Uk is probably still a ' small c ' conservative nation by nature (,?) and when it doesn't - it gets well beaten @ the polls. -------------------------------------------------- ...so this prev 1hr/4hr sw hi zone that extends...
Thanks Headland....
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #831,175
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:50am Jul 3, 2024 3:50am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} filled and dont look good right now, lets see where want to go
Another instrument in NO MANS LAND lol.
Bullish IMPULSE
  • #831,176
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:55am Jul 3, 2024 3:55am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} Another instrument in NO MANS LAND lol. Bullish IMPULSE
its a scalp, no swing trade
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #831,177
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:59am Jul 3, 2024 3:59am
Hit some limits 11.47 a.m. London time, 1.2708. 30 pips & 5 hours 21 minutes from days low 06.26 a.m. 1.2678.
  • #831,178
  • Jul 3, 2024 4:12am Jul 3, 2024 4:12am
Quoting BeeTogether
Labour has had to be more centric, to lure the disgruntled Tory voters.
This is exactly correct. And so is what Headland said just above, of course.

Under Labour's previous leadership, the Corbynistas really were stupid enough not to be able to work out or to understand that Labour could only ever form another government by persuading some/many people who had previously voted Conservative to vote for them.

Fortunately for them, this time around the Conservatives really have screwed up so badly, and for so long, that they’ve effectively done quite a bit of that task for Labour, making the rest easy. And the outcome will almost certainly be the Conservatives’ worst ever election result in history.

What the effect on Cable/the pound will be is another matter altogether.

For what it’s worth (if anything) the incoming Labour Chancellor (Rachel Reeves), although largely an unknown quantity in political terms, is a formerly highly respected senior economist with the Bank of England, before she went into politics, and seems even to be pretty much well respected in the City (quite surprising, really, for a Labour one!).

My guess (which can easily be wrong) is that a big Labour win won’t do the Pound any harm at all - just like it didn’t when Blair first had a big election win.

I know nothing about fundamentals, so take no notice of me if you're looking for a reasoned argument, lol.
  • #831,179
  • Jul 3, 2024 4:25am Jul 3, 2024 4:25am
Quoting Quickly
{quote} This is exactly correct. And so is what Headland said just above, of course. Under Labour's previous leadership, the Corbynistas really were stupid enough not to be able to work out or to understand that Labour could only ever form another government by persuading some/many people who had previously voted Conservative to vote for them. Fortunately for them, this time around the Conservatives really have screwed up so badly, and for so long, that they’ve effectively done quite a bit of that task for Labour, making the rest easy. And the outcome...
exactly, I’m more of a loonie leftie than the others however it’s common sense to have a central view point to help the country. This is why Cameron did well, until he screwed up on Brexit.
As for tomorrow, it’s a big chance to Labour to prove that 14 years of shambles need to be overturned.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #831,180
  • Jul 3, 2024 4:31am Jul 3, 2024 4:31am
Quoting eyefeelsix
{quote} I'm sure that previous weekly low will broken {image}

failed south, biased north

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