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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #9,801
  • Edited 1:11pm Jun 19, 2024 12:19pm | Edited 1:11pm
Is it just me struggling to make money this week with price sitting around the daily EMA.
H1 Divergence failed to cross the EMA= HH but when?
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  • #9,802
  • Jun 20, 2024 3:21am Jun 20, 2024 3:21am
No, you are correct, and it is taking a long time to cover 40 pips.
  • #9,803
  • Jun 21, 2024 2:35am Jun 21, 2024 2:35am
Awesome!

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Nice string of wins shown here on the 4 hour... Only one loss.

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Roll on Monday...
  • #9,804
  • Jun 21, 2024 11:45am Jun 21, 2024 11:45am
Quoting Nala66
Awesome! {image} Nice string of wins shown here on the 4 hour... Only one loss. {image} Roll on Monday...
Nice going Al, can you remind us what BED and LTFD is short for again please.
Found this week very tough and only +2% on the account. Work been busier than usual so maybe that has been a factor.
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  • #9,805
  • Jun 21, 2024 11:35pm Jun 21, 2024 11:35pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Nice going Al, can you remind us what BED and LTFD is short for again please. Found this week very tough and only +2% on the account. Work been busier than usual so maybe that has been a factor. {image}
Ah I am so stupid.
BEar Divergence. BED
BUll Divergence. BUD
Hidden Divergence HD
Lower TF Divergence. LFTD
  • #9,806
  • Jun 23, 2024 5:42am Jun 23, 2024 5:42am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Ah I am so stupid. BEar Divergence. BED BUll Divergence. BUD Hidden Divergence HD Lower TF Divergence. LFTD
Except for the last one. LFTD = Lower Frame Time Divergence.

Whereas I use LTFD.

I just like to mark the chart to remind me of why the trade was on when people ask me. Gone are the days when I could remember all the stuff I have forgotten.
  • #9,807
  • Jun 23, 2024 12:27pm Jun 23, 2024 12:27pm
Quoting Nala66
Gone are the days when I could remember all the stuff I have forgotten.
The glory of the young is their strength, and the splendour of the old is their grey hair.
2 Corinthians 4:16
  • #9,808
  • Jun 28, 2024 2:55am Jun 28, 2024 2:55am
Been a tough week, supposed to be on vacation but trading from the mobile MT4 is really hard.
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  • #9,809
  • Jun 28, 2024 8:42am Jun 28, 2024 8:42am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Been a tough week, supposed to be on vacation but trading from the mobile MT4 is really hard. {image}
Price now back at the weekly EMA. Ready for some more ranging?
  • #9,810
  • Jun 28, 2024 12:31pm Jun 28, 2024 12:31pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Been a tough week, supposed to be on vacation but trading from the mobile MT4 is really hard. {image}
Demo account since 27th April 2024. Happy with that.
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  • #9,811
  • Jun 29, 2024 1:14am Jun 29, 2024 1:14am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Price now back at the weekly EMA. Ready for some more ranging?
Yes, and if we take a look at the monthly chart, we see it is clearly holding onto the average keeping it in a tight range.

This is what I have been keeping an eye on...
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As far as the 4-hour chart is going, no losers this week but definitely a slow market.

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What we need is some action to break the monthly cycle open so we can get a decent trend going.
  • #9,812
  • Jun 29, 2024 1:22am Jun 29, 2024 1:22am
Getting down to the lower time frames we see the hour chart is holding in the 50% ranges of the ABCD...

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The fact is it is now sitting at the C level exactly, so who knows which way this will break.
  • #9,813
  • Jun 29, 2024 1:32am Jun 29, 2024 1:32am
Quoting Nala66
Getting down to the lower time frames we see the hour chart is holding in the 50% ranges of the ABCD... {image} The fact is it is now sitting at the C level exactly, so who knows which way this will break.
if Labour win the election, probably downwards.
  • #9,814
  • Jul 1, 2024 5:36am Jul 1, 2024 5:36am
No trades today. Unsure what is happening so sitting on my hands.
  • #9,815
  • Jul 5, 2024 2:33am Jul 5, 2024 2:33am
I'm speculating that on this NFP day the bulls will attempt a breakout of the weekly 50% levels of the current ABCD,
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Such a lot of political unrest in this world today we have to wonder what on Earth is going on when people are so disrespectful of one another's opinions.
  • #9,816
  • Jul 5, 2024 12:33pm Jul 5, 2024 12:33pm
Lost the plot this week. Strong uptrend and divergence barely getting it back to the EMA again. I know I should be taking long trades bouncing off the EMA but how many times have we tried that only to get taken out for SL before the turn around. Divergence fails to cross the EMA = HH but when is the proper turn around.
Now looking at the charts some more.
  • #9,817
  • Edited Jul 6, 2024 2:25am Jul 5, 2024 9:45pm | Edited Jul 6, 2024 2:25am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Lost the plot this week. Strong uptrend and divergence barely getting it back to the EMA again. I know I should be taking long trades bouncing off the EMA but how many times have we tried that only to get taken out for SL before the turn around. Divergence fails to cross the EMA = HH but when is the proper turn around. Now looking at the charts some more.
When looking at your charts consider all of the below...
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I think the main point to take from this is where the failures occur and turn the market around.

The market will always jump on perceived failures and the opponents have a tough battle to overcome this perception by being strong. (If that makes sense)

As long as the average is climbing price doesn't care how long it goes sideways (Consolidation). Thursday was all day mostly sideways, but the average continued to climb.

PS.. I don't know where the chart disappeared to, but I have added it back in!
  • #9,818
  • Jul 6, 2024 12:34pm Jul 6, 2024 12:34pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} When looking at your charts consider all of the below... {image} I think the main point to take from this is where the failures occur and turn the market around. The market will always jump on perceived failures and the opponents have a tough battle to overcome this perception by being strong. (If that makes sense) As long as the average is climbing price doesn't care how long it goes sideways (Consolidation). Thursday was all day mostly sideways, but the average continued to climb. PS.. I don't know where the chart disappeared to, but I...
So Al,
What we have is the H1 is the big boss. above the EMA is buys only and below is shorts only. Everything else is just noise. What we can do is buys and sells on the lower TF but keep in the back of our minds the H1 trend and try to go with the H1 trend if possible. That said we need to be careful going against H1 trend and justify enough pip distance to the relevant TF EMA we are trading to make enough to reach BE as a minimum. Keep clear of anything below M15 unless you are expert like Alan but we can use the lower TF for entry points onto the H1 trend.

Trading is Easy peeasy. Not


A
  • #9,819
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:11am Jul 7, 2024 5:11am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} So Al, What we have is the H1 is the big boss. above the EMA is buys only and below is shorts only. Everything else is just noise. What we can do is buys and sells on the lower TF but keep in the back of our minds the H1 trend and try to go with the H1 trend if possible. That said we need to be careful going against H1 trend and justify enough pip distance to the relevant TF EMA we are trading to make enough to reach BE as a minimum. Keep clear of anything below M15 unless you are expert like Alan but we can use the lower TF for entry points...
Yes, this is mostly true, however, we also need to address if we would like to hedge or not.

I always assume that a bear div above the EMA is going to be a scalp, but it is often the case where a scalp turns into a trade as it crosses the EMA and finds support.

A hedge takes care of losing our hard-won pips, it simply locks our profits in.

Think about a bull div entry where we have identified a potential target. The trade runs into trouble with a bear div or something and we feel ill at ease, we can simply hedge and wait and see. It may be the case where the trade is forming a hook testing our original entry. We should apply two stops here, one for the original trade and one for the hedge both at BE+1. Now if it does look like a hook, we can close the hedge. If it is not a hook, then our long gets stopped out for BE+1.

Hedging is the preferred option rather than just closing the trade because it doesn't matter which way the market goes our profit is locked in.
  • #9,820
  • Jul 7, 2024 11:38am Jul 7, 2024 11:38am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Yes, this is mostly true, however, we also need to address if we would like to hedge or not. I always assume that a bear div above the EMA is going to be a scalp, but it is often the case where a scalp turns into a trade as it crosses the EMA and finds support. A hedge takes care of losing our hard-won pips, it simply locks our profits in. Think about a bull div entry where we have identified a potential target. The trade runs into trouble with a bear div or something and we feel ill at ease, we can simply hedge and wait and see. It may...
That first Monday HD news candle was huge and and HD cant be confirmed until it is closed unless the lower TF has something to tell us, which the M5 does show us regular RSI divergence but the M5 EMA is only 10 pips away. The Tuesday RSI divergence makes more sense to me with the H1 EMA being about 18 pips away.
Luckily price blows thru the EMA to our 40 pip target and finds H1 support
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