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  • #261
  • Mar 22, 2024 7:47am Mar 22, 2024 7:47am
Stopped out of the HOLO long MES and will give it another entry as we have now a lower low of day. At the moment, the buy stop entry is still 5295.25. If we get a new lower open in 13 minutes, then that would become the entry level. Given the proximity to yesterday's low, that too could be used as a new long entry point.
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  • #262
  • Mar 22, 2024 7:56am Mar 22, 2024 7:56am
S&P 500 index looks like it is thinking about filling that gap
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  • #263
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:00am Mar 22, 2024 8:00am
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  • #264
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:04am Mar 22, 2024 8:04am
MES a new HOLO long at 5290.50
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  • #265
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:08am Mar 22, 2024 8:08am
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  • #266
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:13am Mar 22, 2024 8:13am
Adjusted the take profit and stop loss on the HOLO long.

Take profit is now at 5304.50, which is 1 tick below the high tail during my trading window, and the stop loss is 5289.25, which is 2 ticks below the low of day.
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  • #267
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:31am Mar 22, 2024 8:31am
S&P 500 five minute chart. I've mentioned these three push patterns before. Al Brooks, Stacey Burke, and Tom Hougaard refer to them as wedges I think. That's what I call them and I Must have gotten it from somewhere. Probably one of those guys lol.

Being long the MES, I'd want to see price break UP through that little up sloping trendline and erase the wedge. If price instead drops, then it will probably test the low of day again, and possibly stop me out.

The Globex open AND the S&P NYSE open are above and I would like them to work their magnetic charm on price and induce traders to keep buying, pushing price to my take profit order.
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  • #268
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:37am Mar 22, 2024 8:37am
I've seen traders in other parts of FF recenlty talk about how the MES/ES isn't moving with the same volatility it had been for the past several years. With the VIX back in the low teens, the S&P won't be moving 50 to 100 points per day on a regular basis until the next crisis. That means the several 20 point swings we were seeing intraday are not going to happen with regularity. If you are trading an indi based trend following or trend capturing method like the renko H-A or roadmap you will likely have to lower your take profit expectations and get accustomed to more in-trade chop.

However, if you want to trade the MES/ES or the S&P 500 (US500) then maybe look at the HOLO method. By design it will see you entering trades at or near the low of the day or the high of the day, and therefore give you some roof for profit.
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  • #269
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:38am Mar 22, 2024 8:38am
Quoting vidvad
S&P 500 five minute chart. I've mentioned these three push patterns before. Al Brooks, Stacey Burke, and Tom Hougaard refer to them as wedges I think. That's what I call them and I Must have gotten it from somewhere. Probably one of those guys lol. Being long the MES, I'd want to see price break UP through that little up sloping trendline and erase the wedge. If price instead drops, then it will probably test the low of day again, and possibly stop me out. The Globex open AND the S&P NYSE open are above and I would like them to work their magnetic...

S&P bears making a move and trying to use that wedge to their advantage.
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  • #270
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:44am Mar 22, 2024 8:44am
If price trades 5298.25 again, I will move my stop loss to +20 ticks

There is just over 15 minutes left to the current 60 minute candle. If I haven't been stopped out of this trade before this candle closes, I will move my stop loss to somewhere between breakeven and +8 ticks

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  • #271
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:46am Mar 22, 2024 8:46am
That would have been a +60 tick profit had I entered as I usually do using the bar status tool to alert me to the proper buy stop level.

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  • #272
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:48am Mar 22, 2024 8:48am
I think I am done here for the day.

I'll finish later by updating the final disposition of the MES HOLO long. I outlined above where and when and under what conditions I will be adjusting my stop loss so anyone following along at home should be able to figure it out as the day goes along.
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  • #273
  • Mar 22, 2024 8:52am Mar 22, 2024 8:52am
One more thought to record for the day: With the decrease in volatility, the NQ has also been affected, of course. It has always been a better day trading index than the ES during times of low vol, imo. However, it has slowed a bit. I may be lowering my take profit to +40 ticks next week. The number of instances I have see where the NQ goes +43 ticks and then all the way back to entry has been increasing. I am fine with a 1:1 reward to risk ratio as the win rate on these trades is well above what is necessary for a 1:1 to be profitable over the long haul.
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  • #274
  • Mar 22, 2024 9:07am Mar 22, 2024 9:07am
Quoting vidvad
One more thought to record for the day: With the decrease in volatility, the NQ has also been affected, of course. It has always been a better day trading index than the ES during times of low vol, imo. However, it has slowed a bit. I may be lowering my take profit to +40 ticks next week. The number of instances I have see where the NQ goes +43 ticks and then all the way back to entry has been increasing. I am fine with a 1:1 reward to risk ratio as the win rate on these trades is well above what is necessary for a 1:1 to be profitable over the...
Moved stop to 95.75 when price stalled at 97.75.

SPX looks like a little lower high double top, a type of bear flaag, at the 50% retracement of the high to low swing of today's range.

Net is 2 ticks after commish and fees and the loss from the first HOLO long attempt.

I've switched Ninjatrader to global sim mode so no more trades this week for me unless I come back this afternoon and see something I want to sim trade.

Here is the 5 minute S&P 500 chart
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  • #275
  • Mar 22, 2024 9:14am Mar 22, 2024 9:14am
I did not trade after the one +5 tick win.

Here are my set up notes for today. The red "X"s mark price action that looks like a set up but which I would not have taken under the circumstances of that particular set up.

green circle with black outline = profitable long
red circle with black outline - profitable short
green circle with red outline = losing long
red circle with solid red outline = losing short
green circle with dotted red outline = breakeven long (+5 ticks)
red circle with dotted red outline = breakeven short (+5 ticks)
solid red line = flat 34 ema

red "X" = set up in look but not in context
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five minute chart - circled area is the area of the flat 34 ema on the renko chart and you can see multiple 8/21 ema crosses on the 5 minute chart. I mentioned in a post yesterday that these are my main told for avoiding potential choppy, rangebound conditions.
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  • #276
  • Mar 22, 2024 9:18am Mar 22, 2024 9:18am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} SPX looks like a little lower high double top, a type of bear flag, at the 50% retracement of the high to low swing of today's range.
I studied Al Brooks trading course and his course provided me with a way of understanding the price action on a five minute chart that really helps me on a day to day basis.



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  • #277
  • Mar 22, 2024 12:04pm Mar 22, 2024 12:04pm
I tried to get in on this HOLO long but I noticed it too late. I placed a limit order to buy at 5290.25 but price never came back to let me in.
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  • #278
  • Mar 22, 2024 2:11pm Mar 22, 2024 2:11pm
Related very much to what I was speaking about earlier today when I mentioned the low VIX and the narrowing of the daily ranges of the indices. ES/MES/US500 will narrow more than NQ/Tech100 and YM/US30

So for futures traders trading the intraday trends, it can be tough going. I was trading back in 2016 and 2017. There were weeks when the ES's range was less than it has been during some 5 minute bars. Don't believe me? Pull up a weekly chart from 2016-2017 and look at some of the weekly low to high ranges. Tiny.


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  • #279
  • Mar 23, 2024 5:41am Mar 23, 2024 5:41am
green circle with black outline = profitable long
red circle with black outline - profitable short
green circle with red outline = losing long
red circle with solid red outline = losing short
green circle with dotted red outline = breakeven long (+5 ticks)
red circle with dotted red outline = breakeven short (+5 ticks)
solid red line = flat 34 ema

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  • #280
  • Mar 23, 2024 6:22am Mar 23, 2024 6:22am
I feel this about trading and learning the craft

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