trading macroeconomics - MBTrading

Most of the markets I follow are going sideways as we head into the FOMC meeting minutes release and the inflation data.

 

1. European bourses have held onto the mixed theme seen at the cash open with underperformance seen in the CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 on the back of disappointing earnings from heavyweight LVMH.
2. Bonds are back in vogue as duration and safe haven demand propel prices higher amidst long-end outperformance; UK supply was snapped up and German issuance meets mixed reception.
3. Spot gold and silver are marching higher, potentially amid haven flows as the Israeli war rages on with Lebanon and Syria also said to be involved.
4. Fed's Bowman said the US policy rate may need to rise further, according to Reuters; Fed's Daly said they have more work to do and inflation is still high but noted that if bond yields are tight.
5. Looking ahead, highlights include US MBA & PPI, FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Waller, Collins & Bostic, and supply from the US.

Newsquawk

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On Sunday night I published a post in my analysis blog that gave today's high in the Nasdaq in advance. https://www.macrobriefing.com/post/weeklyanalysis
Within the post, I also said that the market would be quiet / choppy ahead and during the FOMC meeting minutes and for the inflation data. I had no idea what would happen between Sundays open and just now, but I am glad that my crystal ball not only works for saying that there is no recession currently as well as weekly swing trades.
I should quit while I am ahead.
Enjoy the rest of the week's trading and then the weekend. The next analysis out on Sunday x
#forex #nasdaq #nas100 #indices #tradeidea #tradingtips #tradingstrategy #trading #macroeconomics #fundamentals #technicalanalysis

They defended the 105.66

4 Things You Need to Know

1. APAC stocks were mostly lower amid headwinds from the US, while the region also digested softer-than-expected inflation and mixed trade data from China.
2. European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down 0.1% yesterday.
3. DXY remains on a 106 handle, EUR/USD lingers around 1.0550, GBP reclaimed 1.22 vs. the USD.
4. US eyes closing loophole that gives Chinese companies access to American AI chips via units located overseas, according to Reuters sources.

@Newsquawk

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Whenever we get a week full of FOMC chat, trading is pants.
I wish these guys would just STFU

I can't see a trade that i'd like to take just now, so waiting for the price to hit either 107.000 or 105.900 on dXY

1. European bourses/US futures experience pressure as geopolitical tensions overshadow stronger than expected Chinese activity data
2. DXY comfortably above 106.00 but just off best, Yuan unable to benefit from mentioned data while GBP benefits from UK CPI
3. Debt benchmarks pressured post-data though have climbed off lows with Bunds probing positive territory post-supply
4. Commodities derive support from China and geopols., crude benchmarks hit highs as the Iranian Foreign Ministry calls for an oil embargo on Israel
5. Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bowman, Harker & Cook, Supply from the US, Earnings from SAP, Netflix, Tesla, Morgan Stanley & Abbott.

Newsquawk

Going to wait and see what the calendar brings today, and if Price reaches these levels above yesterday's High, will be looking for a clear rejection

1. APAC stocks traded with losses across the board following the downside seen on Wall Street on Friday; Foxconn shares fell amid a Chinese probe.
2. Oil futures, spot gold, and the Swiss Franc unwound some geopolitical risk premium overnight amid no major escalation in the Middle East over the weekend.
3. An Israeli official said there will be 'no ceasefire' in Gaza, according to CNN. The US is pressing Israel to delay the Gaza invasion to win hostage releases.
4. Israeli PM Netanyahu said if Hezbollah goes to war with Israel, it would bring unimaginable devastation upon it and Lebanon.
5. European equity futures are uneventful with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash markets closed -1.6% on Friday.
6. BoJ officials are reportedly mulling tweaking the settings of YCC "because domestic long-term interest rates are also rising as US interest rates rise", according to Nikkei sources.
7. Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Flash and Australian Flash PMIs. Earnings from Philips, UniCredit, Sandvik

Newsquawk

1. APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street with Mainland China leading the gains overnight.
2. DXY eventually dipped under the 105.50 mark as Treasury yields held onto losses; EUR/USD rose above its 50 DMA while USD/JPY tested 149.50 to the downside.
3. Bitcoin saw a volatile session as prices surged to levels near USD 35,000 before pulling back to around USD 33,000 and then stabilising around USD 34,500 - some cited ETF optimism.
4. European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open for Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash markets closed +0.4% yesterday.
5. White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby said the US does not believe this is a time for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict; Israel confirmed two hostages were released by Hamas.

Newsquawk

Haven't traded for almost a week due to the amount of admin it takes to onboard traders to the firm

Expecting some move in the Euro after the German Ifo data today.

But once again we have a load of bankers talking, so I am not trading until they all stfu


We had Australian CPI during the overnight session. The numbers came in higher than expected so the Aussie continued to push higher. If we break the intraday swing low, I'll assume the data was enough to trap the last of the Australian dollar bulls and see if we can target the relative equal lows down towards 0.62840


Maybe the German Ifo data will strengthen the euro and then the DXY will come lower. But I doubt that very much. So my base case scenario is that the DXY continues to push higher into the 110 area. A weekly close below the 105.50 and I start looking to the middle of the year's range and the 103.00 zone.
If the US dollar continues to strengthen, then I only want to be short the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and long the USDCAD, USDJPY should a trade setup occur.

1. APAC stocks traded lower across the board, following the weak lead from Wall Street; Mainland China saw the shallowest losses among the majors.
2. Meta shares fell 3.4% after-market during the earnings call despite rising almost 5% post-earnings; Alphabet closed with losses of near 10%.
3. DXY found a firmer footing and traded in an APAC range north of 106.50; G10s were softer across the board while USD/JPY approached 150.50.
4. European equity futures are indicative of a softer open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.9% after cash markets closed up 0.2%.

Newsquawk

Due to the ECB I am expecting the news today to help the EURUSD fall towards 1.04

more often than not when i am placing the fib tool on a chart, rather than using the high, low, or close of the candle, i round up or down to the nearest 00, 20, 50, or 80 The logic behind that is, a dealer is probably not going to worry about calling out a bid of 02, 23, 54 or 82 they are going to round it themselves to an easy number.

so you get an entry like this. Whether it goes down, I can't guarantee, but if it does the DD is super low.


that would do

1. APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed but with the major indices mostly in the red as geopolitics continued to dominate headlines ahead of month-end and this week’s slew of upcoming risk events.
2. DXY was rangebound, EUR/USD traded steadily, 10-year UST futures were contained, and Bund futures remained firmer after last week’s spoils and recent ECB commentary regarding no more hikes.
3. Crude futures reversed most of Friday's gain, while reports also noted Saudi could refrain from hiking prices to clients in Asia. Spot gold and copper traded sideways.
4. US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November in San Francisco.
5. Israeli PM Netanyahu said the ongoing ground operation in Gaza is the second stage of the war and said the war inside the Gaza Strip will be difficult and long.

Newsquawk

The Federal Reserve is poised to hold interest rates steady at a 22-year high for a second meeting, while leaving open the possibility of another hike as soon as December with economic growth staying resilient. Powell has signaled that Fed leaders would prefer to wait to evaluate the impact of past increases on the economy as they near the end of their rate-hiking campaign. “It will be kind of a hawkish pause,” said Thomas Simons, senior economist at Jefferies LLC. Bloomberg



If the USD was strong against everything it would be easier to decipher what was going on. Currently, EUR is the weakest, and JPY is the strongest performing currency. So we should be short EURJPY. However, JPY is supposed to be a safe haven, and the flows are not showing Risk-Off, as we have NZD and AUD doing relatively well. The Antipodeans are commodity pairs, but they're not marrying up with a strengthening CAD. I like to trade a theme rather than a currency and I can not see a theme developing here. All I see is weakness in Europe and Strength in Japan, which is all down to monetary policy and probably very quickly reversed. Go careful!

Started a new trading series

First trade

https://www.youtube.com/live/Gu7tDvm...wJY9ga2uFksSxr

Not sure if anyone else here is doing the Samuel & Co trading competition that was running last week and this coming week, but I am.

The halfway point of the forex trading challenge was crucial and it was great to hear that I am still in touching distance of the top 10. My actual goal is to accomplish the crucial 2% gain required to qualify for a funded account just to see if they would give me one

I am doing market analysis for my fellow traders but also recording my trades etc here.