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Cable Update - Continued 61 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 27 replies

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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Bones
{quote} If you know for 100% fact you should be a billionaire, I can guarantee your 90%+ win rate is on an amount that you are personally not bothered about.
You cannot guarantee that because you don't know. This may be a great eg of 'confirmation' bias, but's that's another story.
My 85-98% win rate ( depending on the set-up) has been achieved by an increasing amount of margin as I have retained profits to grow trade sizes over the years, and I trade at a size I am indeed ' bothered about ' because for me and my family's day to day living exps, this is our primary source of income.

Re your other point, Yes, if you could indeed see the future 100% you could bet the farm on each trade as you know it will definitely 100% win.
Intraday swing trader @ 1Hr+ supp/res, & 5min+ sbr/rbs, via 1min+ set-ups
let me predict whats goin to happen next year since its december so time to look at yearly chart using my edge


i trade the forrest gump way
Inserted Video

when the room is boolish ill short and when the room is bearish ill buy

one exception will be the next british general election if comes early...as long as the brits keep electing brain dead tories or any tories for that matter the pound will keep dying...i dont think the usa or world is gona save the island from anymore stupid leaders like we did last year with liz truss LOL...if brits elect another conservative government that wants to give away tax cuts to the rich that dont need em ill short gilt and hold it till parity \

ill just buy etf's and hold em in my retirement accounts so the british public pays for my over 55 housing community expenses

price will range between these two lines
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stay with the 5% contrarians not the 95% losers
Quoting Headland
{quote} You cannot guarantee that because you don't know. This may be a great eg of 'confirmation' bias, but's that's another story. My 85-98% win rate ( depending on the set-up) has been achieved by an increasing amount of margin as I have retained profits to grow trade sizes over the years, and I trade at a size I am indeed ' bothered about ' because for me and my family's day to day living exps, this is our primary source of income. Re your other point, Yes, if you could indeed see the future 100% you could bet the farm on each trade as you know...
There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time.
Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
usually the entry point has already decided everything.
Quoting Bones
{quote} There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time. Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
You are conflating two separate issues. Ie one does not necessarily follow the other. But anyway, I'll deal with them separately.

1. All none 'EA' edges (for want of a better phrase,) require human intervention to make a decision whether to enter the market, or not. I do so based on a set of rules applicable to my edge. If they are met I do, if not I don't, - except that sometimes not all are met but sufficient are to make a lower than perfect, but still acceptably hi-probability, market entry/trade, but to compensate for this I use a lower than the typical risk, in terms of trade size, than if it had set up perfectly per the rules. Even those though are repeating patterns and subject to a rule set/conditions, as described. I agree though that all edges evolve over time, and to your implicit suggestion that none of us adhere to the rules/conditions, all of the time; Well, we are by nature imperfect as human beings, and sometimes slip. There are times that said confirmation bias kicks in, and intuition, and we may act on that, regardless of whether our edge has set up or not. I think experience teaches us to minimise these slips in discipline.

2. Notwithstanding all the above, I really do not predict or forecast what will happen next. I am comfortable with that. Believe it or not.

Good discussion, but it is clear we won't agree on some points so If you don't mind I won't respond to any further posts on these matters. I think anyone reading the discussion has sufficient information to decide where they may stand.
Intraday swing trader @ 1Hr+ supp/res, & 5min+ sbr/rbs, via 1min+ set-ups
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Quoting GEfx
{quote} I was asking about the reason for your target. I often trade the GA, and this pair has not been in the 2.0600 area since March 2020. From your target, I imagine that you believe conditions in GB are about to improve, or things in Australia are falling apart, relative to one another. Just curious about how this move to 2.0600 is going to unfold, either fundamentally or technically.
Try projecting fib 1.618 on weekly
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Ferna
{quote} lol he forgot to consider the H16384 in his analysis.
Hi Ferna. I could never stopped thinking about your coment how MM holding positions for months against a specific trader. I worked out how It is done as i am experiencing Sort of, except i am eventually winning the game with a slight delay. It is a similar scam to the 3 cup one. Once they have Lost their position after lets say trading 99% short positions from 15 to 10 and price turns around to 17, all those underwater positions are bought at 10 by Corporation B Who Will inmediatly start selling at 17. It must be done behind the curtain somehow. This means, its even convinient to trade against a talented trader cos the winning is done both ways guaranteed. Everyone is winner, the 2 Corporations plus the talented trader. After all these operations are made out of thin Air. Now, you might think, how the hell price manages to beat the huge pressure, its the Natural offer and demand from a mathematical time squaring
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Bones
{quote} There is no system that gives a 90% accuracy over time without human intervention, this thing evolves all the time. Therefore you're kidding yourself to be the forex trader who doesn't make any forecasts on something that never happened already.
Yes, that is why EA ' s fail over a period of time.

Human intervetion :

1. Adjust trading lots size

2 . Adjust stop loss/ Take profit levels based on risk appetite ( Not in line with books )

3 . Scalp only at times.

4 . Swing trade only or day trade only at times.

5 . Choose diiferent pairs based on volatility

etc..etc
Intraday only.
Quoting Ferna
{quote} alright i am basically braindead these days but let’s see if we agree. Broker A is your broker. He/she has a liquidity provider which can either be Broker B,C,D.. together forming a liquidity pool. Or Broker A can have a direct agreement investment bank to supply liquidity. And then we can have the 3rd kind of broker who has his own liquidity pool, which are basically the clients deposits put together. Let’s say it’s the 2nd alternative… Broker A forms a liquidity pool with Broker B and Broker C. Together they have 3 times much money. Broker...
So I understood that the forex and commodity broker is more of a facilitator than a liquidity provider, relying on clients, investment banks and similar entities to provide the liquidity. These groups require special licensing and different market registration.
Dark pools exist in stock markets but because the volatility in forex and commodity markets keeps them out of these markets. Brokers handling dark pools (extremely large transactions kept off books for periods of time in theory to prevent market disruptions) only do so if they have clients on both sides of the transaction (the Goldman Sachs of the world).
In forex, central banks, the fed and so on post huge out of the market trades to attract the AI's controlling price and trades to these out of the market prices. Sometimes these out of the market trades are cancelled before they are settled, other times they are traded because there are even more out of the market trades continuing to attract prices in a specific direction.
The AI's that control trading and price can generate liquidity to move price in a direction of their choosing (chop and stop hunts) but only so long as it fulfills their two primary goals, to move price to open transactions profitably and to maintain a balanced pricing relationship between all currency pairs. Individual brokers cannot control price. Individual brokers can control the spreads that they offer their clients.
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Try projecting fib 1.618 on weekly
LOL...
Quoting Ferna
{quote} alright i am basically braindead these days but let’s see if we agree. Broker A is your broker. He/she has a liquidity provider which can either be Broker B,C,D.. together forming a liquidity pool. Or Broker A can have a direct agreement investment bank to supply liquidity. And then we can have the 3rd kind of broker who has his own liquidity pool, which are basically the clients deposits put together. Let’s say it’s the 2nd alternative… Broker A forms a liquidity pool with Broker B and Broker C. Together they have 3 times much money. Broker...
Much simple. No broker involved. 3 traders ok. Me and 2 more A and B making a team. Must be a well know financial institution. They can only hold my position 2/3 days due to my accuracy. Trader A starts trading against my position (15) from minute one savagely locking my entry. I am underwater for 2/3 days going down to 10, till price finds support (natural law). Price bounces back against trader A to 20 points. In its worst, he is 10 points underwater now. I am gaining 5 points+ some more adding from 15 to 10 going long. Trader B buys A's positions at 10 in a paralel engineering accountancy at light speed making the operations seem legal when price is at 20, remember, they own and regulate the exchange House. Its a lobby and processed by AI. Trader A has 5 points profit (short)while trader B obtains 10 points profit (long) one second after buying from trader' A shorts. I sell at 20 with a 5 point profit plus my addings. We all have profits. The rest of retailers are losers.
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Much simple. No broker involved. 3 traders ok. Me and 2 more A and B making a team. Must be a well know financial institution. They can only hold my position 2/3 days due to my accuracy. Trader A starts trading against my position (15) from minute one savagely locking my entry. I am underwater for 2/3 days going down to 10, till price finds support (natural law). Price bounces back against trader A to 20 points. In its worst, he is 10 points underwater now. I am gaining 5 points+ some more adding from 15 to 10 going long....
In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
Quite clever
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Quite clever
Financially, i have multyplied my balance 43 times in 6 weeks. They must have multyplied by 500 with a massive account. Nothing to complain about personally. Quite Happy
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Financially, i have multyplied my balance 43 times in 6 weeks. They must have multyplied by 500 with a massive account. Nothing to complain about personally. Quite Happy
The difference is i cannot afford to make a fatal mistake. Its a win win game for them. This is how life is.
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Sure, this is true. It’s hierarchical though. Every time they go to real market they earn less commission. But if you are trading with the big banks it’s a win for them overall, well as long as money is worth something. but are they really traders? The brokers? Well since it is off-setting positions, if broker copies you and has 500 times more winning positions, it need to find 500 more losers to pay for their wins. I would think that’s a bad business model, then they have to make those losers if they can’t find them which will lead to less...
Real brokerage firms are just the instrument to execute orders from my experience. Very Happy with my broker. It is a Corporation who controls the market. A financial group, through the exchange House. In my case, although 99% trading is a riged business, i am making profits. Whether i should have commented this, i don't know. My advice is that, anyone can be profitable but chances are less than 1%, you must be pasionate and gifted.

I now will stop commenting on this issue anymore as i finally understand what is going.
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Real brokerage firms are just the instrument to execute orders from my experience. Very Happy with my broker. It is a Corporation who controls the market. A financial group, through the exchange House. In my case, although 99% trading is a riged business, i am making profits. Whether i should have commented this, i don't know. My advice is that, anyone can be profitable but chances are less than 1%, you must be pasionate and gifted. I now will stop commenting on this issue anymore as i finally understand what is going.
One last thing, Mr Market will eventually find winners and losers
Mr Market, the greatest MM
If Bitcoin breaks through 42855, we may see a retracement down before continueing its way up.
Mr Market, the greatest MM
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} In reality, they rub their hands if a talented swing trader shows up. They know which way the market will finally head towards so they can bet against him making huge profits closing massive orders when price goes into talented trader 's direction.
among others, these are manipulative games, why I changed my strategy and stopped swing trading. because it's very hard to win when almost everything is against me..
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