USD/JPY Discussion

wow if only i saw this earlier. my EU is in deep shit. deep buy shit n deep sell shit. n i out the hedge too soon now im left with deep sell n my acc is in red water......

just one of each? Or multiple?

multiple....

now i leave one side already. using other account to trade my UJs...

I'm new to foreign exchange (FX). Could you please explain which indicators led you to suggest going short on the USD/JPY at 123.40?

Chat GBT

“After this weeks moves with the usdjpy pair what can you tell me as an outlook for this week”
”
The outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair seems to be influenced by a variety of factors based on recent market analysis. The Japanese yen has demonstrated renewed strength, and the USD/JPY pair has broken beneath a previous level of dynamic support. The yen is the most heavily shorted it has been since at least 2020, which poses a risk of a short squeeze that could add to its momentum. The analysis suggests that if there is a pullback, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could form potential dynamic resistance. Currently, USD/JPY finds support at 146.50, followed by 145.00, and there might still be room for movement before the pair reaches oversold conditions according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI)【47†source】.
The overall value of the yen has lifted across a basket of currencies, but it still has a significant way to go to recover lost ground【48†source】. Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report indicates that any further strengthening of the yen may compel traders who are short on the yen to cover their positions, which would further boost its value【49†source】.
These factors combine to create a nuanced outlook for the USD/JPY pair, which will likely be influenced by ongoing economic data releases, central bank policies, and market sentiment. It's important to continue monitoring key economic indicators and central bank communications for a more accurate forecast.”

USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame went sideways on Friday after a bullish attempt to retest the 150.00 horizontal resistance. Recent ‘wicky’ prints favour northward market engineering but the 150.00 area should be significantly breached northward first.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Welcome. I think you will find that most of the good traders don't use indicators. If all one needed to make money in Forex was an indicator, it wouldn't have taken you this long to join us. People would be lined up at the door. My best advice... open a demo account at $1000. IF you can move that 1000 to 1,000,000, then you are ready for live trading. Until then your attempts will more than likely only serve to feed the system. Learn Elliot wave. Then learn Price Action. Finally look at YouTube for help on perfect entries. If I were to speak to my younger self this is what I would suggest.

right on Q

It is unclear whether interest rates on the US dollar will fall, but even if they did, it would be foolish to sell the US dollar, which has a much higher interest rate than the Japanese yen. As a result, it is normal for the dollar to remain strong for several years.

The Bank of Japan announced that the market value of its government bonds was significantly lower than its book value, resulting in unrealized losses of 10.5 trillion yen, the largest ever.
On the 28th, the Bank of Japan released its financial statements for April to September of this year, and the market value of government bonds held by the Bank of Japan was 576,378 billion yen as of the end of September this year. The book value is 586,878.1 billion yen, which means that there is an unrealized loss of 10.5 trillion yen, a sharp increase from 157.1 billion yen at the end of March this year.
This is because Japan's long-term interest rates rose as the Bank of Japan decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting in July to allow long-term interest rate fluctuations from 0.5% to 1.0%.
The Bank of Japan has so far purchased large amounts of government bonds as part of its monetary easing measures in order to keep long-term interest rates low.
However, as long-term interest rates rise, the valuation of government bonds declines, which resulted in large unrealized losses on the large amount of government bonds held.
The Bank of Japan assumes that it will hold government bonds for the long term until maturity, so ``financial soundness will not be compromised.''
However, some market participants have pointed out that if interest rates rise further in the future, ``there is a risk that the financial and currency confidence of the central bank, the Bank of Japan, will be shaken internationally.''



https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fe...4fedb4498a10ff

means what?

Experts say that raising interest rates on the yen risks taking on more debt. As a result, the value of the yen will fall.

Focus on this
[quote=COGSx86;14669055]right on Q {image}[/quote

TY is talking fundamental news that while useful... tends to be more swing trade related

what happen? Why the sudden crash

A couple more days of this and we may be able to resume buying IMO. Wave 5 on the 4hr appears to be nearing the finish of wave 3. My target to the downside is 144.6. Which will represent the end of an ABC consolidation of the buying we experienced this year. Buying from there. High probability we go sideways first unless there is no Xmas rally in the major market. Let's see.