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Mathematical hedging strategy without a stop loss 22 replies

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Attachments: Hedging/averaging trades without prediction
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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

Good post, sounds like he was trading along the same lines, 100% possible to trade without charts IMO. I only use them to generate trades for my EAs as I'm lazy/too busy during the day to always be able to check. I'm not using any indis, and making no predictions, so there's no point in charts anyway, for me at least .

Tipped over +6% today, in just over 14 weeks, have also increased trade size slightly so also expecting bigger DDs accordingly. My ideal goal would be around 20% after 12 months but will see.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
Just a reminder --- we got Dollar Reds incoming @12.30pm UK and 2.pm UK
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B4 Elvis there was nothing
Quoting T721
Just a reminder --- we got Dollar Reds incoming @12.30pm UK and 2.pm UK {image}
Thanks T, I take the hits both ways with news though, tends to even out over time (I might regret this later)
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
averaging..

dont be greedy when averaging...
plan of averaging is securing ur first order
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Cease Fire. Free Palestine
primary account vs hedge account yesterday result
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Cease Fire. Free Palestine
Quoting voeltoez
primary account vs hedge account yesterday result {image} {image}
Full lots is a massive trade size for me, what's your account size? And what kind of methodology are you using?
Quoting voeltoez
averaging.. dont be greedy when averaging... plan of averaging is securing ur first order {image} {image}
I'd agree with the greedy comment, without being over cautious. I've slowly built up a nice little buffer now which takes a lot of stress out of the equation and whenever all the trades equal a reasonable profit I'll close everything and reset to protect the margin. Full lots would be a bit fruity for me as well with real money, hopefully one day.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} Full lots is a massive trade size for me, what's your account size? And what kind of methodology are you using?
hedging is not about lots or trade size...
you still must calculate mm properly..
Cease Fire. Free Palestine
Quoting voeltoez
{quote} hedging is not about lots or trade size... you still must calculate mm properly..
This trading style is dependant on your sizing to some degree to have the ability to average down, that's why I asked how you can safely trade full lots unless your account is 100k plus, just curious about your methodology is all mate
Working with some Bollinger bands strategy's to add to the portfolio, Side note how long does it take for me to advance from junior member so I can post in my own thread?
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Been long $ for a few days now, patience the key, been here before .
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
Quoting WallFlower
Working with some Bollinger bands strategy's to add to the portfolio, Side note how long does it take for me to advance from junior member so I can post in my own thread? {image}
You just need to keep posting, WF. How do you use RSI? What's the initial TP for first entry?
1.02^200
M15AVERAGE200BB Return This Week: 0.0%
Quoting d5400
{quote} You just need to keep posting, WF. How do you use RSI? What's the initial TP for first entry?
For this model I use a multiple of the ATR for the initial tp and tp of baskets of trades. I use the rsi as over bought = sell and over sold = buy
Couple of semi manual scalps early in the week, I think abit more inline with some of waves trades
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Quoting WallFlower
{quote} For this model I use a multiple of the ATR for the initial tp and tp of baskets of trades. I use the rsi as over bought = sell and over sold = buy
I also use multiples of ATR for tp and position sizing, and I have used bollinger bands to time entries. Poor luck so far, probably need bigger bank and more patience. Looking forward to your posts (and threads, when you become a member).
1.02^200
M15AVERAGE200BB Return This Week: 0.0%
I've created dozens of EAs, mostly with variations based on MM rather than indicators but I did find my earlier efforts worked well with RSI as a basic overbought/sold trigger. Once I get an EA which works on MT4 I'll start running optimisations over 1 and 5 year periods and recording the results on a spreadsheet, some of these optimisations can take days, depending on the EA. I'm not wedded to EAs but I like being able to backtest over various periods, dates and times.

All of these EAs are based on hedging without a stopless, and many/most are profitable over the long term, BUT DD on some can be more than most humans could tolerate. Personally I've found once you have your own hard earned on the table it's much harder to control those emotions, but it gets better with practice. I'm quite comfortable these days with larger DD scenarios but it would be a lie to say I'm completely devoid of emotion when you see a week's wages disappear in one day (I've always recovered it thus far).

My best performing EAs are actually some of those earlier efforts using RSI, some of my later ones have got me into a spot of bother at times but I also find it's good practice trading your way out of a position. One unsurprising reveal, after runing 100s of backtests, is risk/reward is always correlated.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
Quoting d5400
{quote} I also use multiples of ATR for tp and position sizing, and I have used bollinger bands to time entries. Poor luck so far, probably need bigger bank and more patience. Looking forward to your posts (and threads, when you become a member).
Yes I also have Bollinger Bands triggers for some ea's in my posts above aswell, ive worked on this stuff for years with no success until recently, ive found a couple things to be true such as the edge doesnt come from the entry's but more so the exits(think about how a coin toss system can be profitable) and that systems are market dependant, my ea's by themselves suffer massive drawdowns in backtests they require human interaction at times to either close all the trades at a loss or to hedge and resume later or even to stop them on this market and swap them over to something else. I do plan to make my own thread eventually but im grateful for what wave has provided us here
Quoting LazyTrades
I've created dozens of EAs, mostly with variations based on MM rather than indicators but I did find my earlier efforts worked well with RSI as a basic overbought/sold trigger. Once I get an EA which works on MT4 I'll start running optimisations over 1 and 5 year periods and recording the results on a spreadsheet, some of these optimisations can take days, depending on the EA. I'm not wedded to EAs but I like being able to backtest over various periods, dates and times. All of these EAs are based on hedging without a stopless, and many/most are...
That last point you made is interesting. I found something similar, coding an ea to take a random entry with a 1:1 ratio usually gives around a 50% winrate, 1:2 33% winrate or even a 1:10 system a 10% winrate, is this what you mean? when I start to introduce my own filters and conditions I actually make the systems worse than a random entry somehow, I find it all very interesting, makes me think the visual representation of price is just to confuse and persuade you. If I recall correctly I believe wave doesn't use charts much right?
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} That last point you made is interesting. I found something similar, coding an ea to take a random entry with a 1:1 ratio usually gives around a 50% winrate, 1:2 33% winrate or even a 1:10 system a 10% winrate, is this what you mean? when I start to introduce my own filters and conditions I actually make the systems worse than a random entry somehow, I find it all very interesting, makes me think the visual representation of price is just to confuse and persuade you. If I recall correctly I believe wave doesn't use charts much right?
That's right don't use charts or listen to news, took a long time to dehypnotized myself from all that I learnt, indicators, chart patterns, support and resistance etc, I lose the bias and just trade my positions not the market...
Soon To Be Temporarily Suspended Again
Mates, there are infinite ways to calculate price (indicators) and even more different ways to exploit them in trading(yes, more than infinite, and I stand by my word!)

Making many EaS does not make their results any more valuable.
Coding is giving instructions to the computer.
If, for example, one were to give instruction to a teenager on how to drive, but handed him milk to fill up the tank instead of petrol and a carrot instead of a key to start the car, the poor lad wouldn't get anywhere. This is how many failed observations regarding milk and carrot guided EAs

I see this interesting thread as being an attempt to go back to basics, which I really like.

Alas, to be honest, trading with risk management alone, in my experience, Is not enough for long-term consistent enough success
Trading without risk management isn't enough either.

Sorry for the rambling Waves, hope you didnt mind too much. Thanks for your interesting thoughts mates, Cheers all ! and, well, let's not forget to keep on laughing:
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
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