{quote} So, in my post #108197, those conditions were met when the star indicator printed the star where you went short?
I'm excited for this week coming, watch for any Monday + Tuesday retracements to form the weekly wick low.
All the USD pairs show same pattern, obviously, vs CAD, CHF, and JPY, it's the other way around.
Consider this analysis: USD vs AUD and by proxy NZD. Thanks to http://www.marctomarket.com/2023/11/...ts-turned.html
An inflection point may have been reached last week. Despite, Chair Powell's insistence that the Fed did not adopt an easing bias and confirmed that there is still no talk of a cut, the market knows better. The implied yield of December 2024 Fed funds futures contract is about 4.45%, which is to say, the market is discounting not only the two cuts in the Fed's September projections, but a third cut, and the risk again (~60%), of a fourth cut. The first cut is now fully discounted by the end of Q2 24. The disappointing employment report pushed on an open door, sending US rates and the greenback lower.
The Australian dollar rallied to its best level in two months ahead of the weekend, amid the broader US dollar pullback and speculation of a possible RBA rate hike next week. The momentum indicators are trending higher. After six previous attempts since mid-August, the Aussie managed to close above $0.6500, not simply trade above it on an intraday basis. Still, it traded nearly three standard-deviations above its 20-day moving average (~$0.6525) and settled higher than two standard-deviations (~$0.6470). After matching its longest advance since January (three weeks) and rising about 2.8% last week (the largest weekly rally since last November), it looks vulnerable if the RBA does not lift rates.
If you chase two rabbits, you will catch neither one!
BRAIN.SURGERY Return This Year:
26.2%
