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5Min Intraday System

  • #1,281
  • May 31, 2007 12:48pm May 31, 2007 12:48pm
Quoting Golfer
Just look at the difference between pull-back angle A & B - makes a difference between a high probability trade and a risky trade!
Can you explain a little bit more, please?
  • #1,282
  • May 31, 2007 12:58pm May 31, 2007 12:58pm
What would you do next? Would you wait for the second entrance in the war zone? It is involved "00" ...

Thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,283
  • May 31, 2007 1:12pm May 31, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting petrol
Can you explain a little bit more, please?
Hi Petrol

Sure. What you need to look for is a flat-type of pullback towards and into the war zone. Look at the two attached examples. When you do get a pullbacks like that, there is a high possibility that the trade will be positive. When the pullback is steep, it becomes a high risk trade. This means that the trade still can be a positive trade but the changes are getting bigger that the trade could be a loser.

Just look at the Cable chart (word document) and look at the pullback above the blue support line - relative flat. Now look at the pull-back after the first "correct" mark. Very steep and risky trade but the set-up still resulted in positive trade.

On the EURJPY chart the first setup is a steep pull-back, the second one a flat type of pullback and the third set-up a steep one. Streep 1 & 2 (SL would have been triggered meaning two negative trades) went all the way down to 50MA while the middle set-up was a better one (possible positive trade).

I hope it make sense and that is what I am looking for. The EURJPY trade was my first live trade in almost 2 weeks (looking for great set-ups).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 20070507 flat pullback.jpg Size: 77 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc GBPU$ pullback angle & great set-up.doc   507 KB | 1,805 downloads
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,284
  • May 31, 2007 1:17pm May 31, 2007 1:17pm
Hi, Petrol! On your chart at 11:00 and 13:00, the system works perfect, but at 14:00 it shows the the right signal for going long, the price is in the zone and sma 50 still going up, but this is the false signal and price went down.
Anybody knows how to filter out this signal?
  • #1,285
  • May 31, 2007 1:27pm May 31, 2007 1:27pm
It might be :
Chicago PMI new=61.7forecast=54.2old=52.9

So the USD raised ... see all the forex market. The hour maches.
  • #1,286
  • May 31, 2007 1:30pm May 31, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Petrol! On your chart at 11:00 and 13:00, the system works perfect, but at 14:00 it shows the the right signal for going long, the price is in the zone and sma 50 still going up, but this is the false signal and price went down.
Anybody knows how to filter out this signal?
Hi Al

My small resistance/support line (posted earlier in this thread) would have kept me out of that 14H00 trade. That is the filter I am using to keep me out of what looks like a perfect but "late" trade set-up then also resulting in false pullbacks.

The small resistance/support line was something I've noticed on the chart but not really proven. I am using it very effectively. It can also keep you out of some nice trades but that is forex trading for you.

Hope it helps.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,287
  • May 31, 2007 1:43pm May 31, 2007 1:43pm
No more resistance = no more trades

My problem above still remains: what about this moment GBP-USD? 21EMA and 10EMA are very close, 50 has the right angle but there is a stong resistance at "00".

Best choice: stay out of it?
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  • #1,288
  • May 31, 2007 2:25pm May 31, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Petrol! On your chart at 11:00 and 13:00, the system works perfect, but at 14:00 it shows the the right signal for going long, the price is in the zone and sma 50 still going up, but this is the false signal and price went down.
Anybody knows how to filter out this signal?
Yes this is a brilliant method but try and close out positions before news hits.. Be wary of entering new positions before news.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #1,289
  • Edited Jun 1, 2007 1:18am May 31, 2007 2:30pm | Edited Jun 1, 2007 1:18am
I found a book on the internet. It speaks about trading news .. interesing idea. Anyway our's is better!

BEWARE! IT MIGHT BE VERY VERY DANGEROUS! DON'T USE IT IF YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH EXPERIENCE!
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Forex-Amazing_Forex_System.zip   448 KB | 1,273 downloads
  • #1,290
  • May 31, 2007 5:40pm May 31, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting petrol
It might be :
Chicago PMI new=61.7 forecast=54.2 old=52.9

So the USD raised ... see all the forex market. The hour maches.
You think if it was not Chicago PMI, it would go up? It probably would, good point thou.
  • #1,291
  • May 31, 2007 5:54pm May 31, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting Golfer
Hi Al

My small resistance/support line (posted earlier in this thread) would have kept me out of that 14H00 trade. That is the filter I am using to keep me out of what looks like a perfect but "late" trade set-up then also resulting in false pullbacks.

The small resistance/support line was something I've noticed on the chart but not really proven. I am using it very effectively. It can also keep you out of some nice trades but that is forex trading for you.

Hope it helps.
Thank you Golfer, I'll try to find your support/resistance line, I've read almost all this thread and don't remember where is it, could you please tell me which page it's on.
  • #1,292
  • May 31, 2007 8:26pm May 31, 2007 8:26pm
Quoting alexfot
Thank you Golfer, I'll try to find your support/resistance line, I've read almost all this thread and don't remember where is it, could you please tell me which page it's on.
Hi Al

Drawing of small resistance/support lines:

Post #1181 page 79.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,293
  • Edited Jun 1, 2007 11:31am May 31, 2007 11:26pm | Edited Jun 1, 2007 11:31am
Quoting petrol
I found a book on the internet. It speaks about trading news .. interesing idea. Anyway our's is better!
Hi Petrol

Been there, done that, got the losses. No just joking. I did trade that system with 15pip SL and it worked well with Cable.

But and it is a big BUT, it is very risky and very, very fast. Almost too fast to manage. If it goes your way great, otherwise sometimes it goes so fast that both trades SL are triggered - two losses in a space of a few seconds. That is why I stopped using that system.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,294
  • May 31, 2007 11:28pm May 31, 2007 11:28pm
0625 GMT. Going to try this long on USDJPY 121.9. See what happens.
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  • #1,295
  • May 31, 2007 11:44pm May 31, 2007 11:44pm
0641 GMT Stopped out. A setup that looked ok, turns into a loss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,296
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:08am Jun 1, 2007 12:08am
Quoting Golfer
Hi Hegan

Great trade but why was it great? Get into the habit of analise your trades afterwards - profit of loss. My opinion of the set-up and I was just too late to enter (never try and enter after the set-up):

Beautiful flat pullback against resistance (brown line) and a classic 2 candle entry in the war zone (first hand). You also could have entry where the second hand is - a bit more difficult.

The third and fouth hand are still correct trades but remember, it is already the third set-up - it becomes risky now. Phillip's advice is to try and trade the second/middle set-up. Resistance changed into support - could fool you to entry on the third and fouth hand. Nothing wrong with that except.....

I do save pictures of all my trades and analise them later - just like I did right now. This will help you to identify the high probability trades easily.

Well done!
Hi Golfer,

The reason I didn't trade signals that you presented is because of news. I closed position just about 20 mins before american news. Anyway, thank you very much for your advices. I am new here and advices are very helpfull.

See you around,
Hegan
  • #1,297
  • Edited 12:59am Jun 1, 2007 12:36am | Edited 12:59am
Hello all,

This morning I am watching 3 pairs of currencies: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. USD/CHF is most primising.

Hegan
  • #1,298
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:22am Jun 1, 2007 1:22am
Thank you golfer! I modifed post #1289 to reflect your opinion.
  • #1,299
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:35am Jun 1, 2007 2:35am
Quoting petrol
Thank you golfer! I modifed post #1289 to reflect your opinion.
Hi Petrol

No problem. That is why we do have a thread like this one from Phillip. To share ideas/experience in a nice manner and assist each other (and not being nasty). I am sure that is what Phillip wants.

On that news trading system - I even collected one year's data (EUR$ & cable) on the price movements to identify the "real movers". I did use 15pips entry method and I was looking at the previous 15 minutes before the news release. The "last 1min to do everything" recommendation just didn't work.

At the end my account was positive for Cable but not for the others. I stopped using that system because of the high risk & fast movements (escpecially in the first few seconds/minute - sometimes even a gap). It was just not my style of trading - thats all. It could work for somebody else.

The adapted 1min system of Phillip is more suitable for my style of trading.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,300
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:43am Jun 1, 2007 2:43am
Quoting emacro
0641 GMT Stopped out. A setup that looked ok, turns into a loss.
Hi EM

I quickly looked at/analised my chart as well and on my chart all the rules/criteria were OK - just one of those unfortunate trades. Nothing wrong with it.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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